The ensemble of planet earth's financial and economic system is usually fairly robust. Yes, you get some deadbeats. Some blow ups. Some mistakes and some accidents. But they come one at a time...and the system absorbs them...adapts...and moves forward. But when you control the price of money for too long...and when you lend too much money and are too sans souci about it....your margin of error narrows as your debt increases.
No longer is the danger isolated and particular. It becomes generalized...and systemic. All the world's collateral comes to be over-priced. And upon this collateral - inflation in asset prices of all sorts - the entire capital structure rests. Until it all falls down.
Back in Africa...
Fish have replaced groundnuts as Senegal's chief export. But apparently the seas off West Africa are not rich enough in fish to all the country to international aid organizations. As a financial risk, Senegal is subprime. What more proof do you want? Senegal counts on the kindness of strangers to pay its current expenses. Lenders must believe the strangers' generosity will never flag. And the world economy - from which the strangers derive their own incomes - will never fail.
In the nearby Democratic Republic of the Congo, the risks are more corporal than capital. Edward reports from a mining project deep in the jungle:
"The rebels don't usually give us trouble. We're mining tin. They don't care much about it. At least, that's what they told me. Everywhere we went, we had an armed guard. But we didn't expect trouble.
"Besides, we had the helicopter. If things got hot we were supposed to just fly away.
"But they attacked the camp yesterday. Everybody started running. I couldn't get my passport or any clothes or anything. I just grabbed by laptop because I just happened to have it with me.
"We couldn't take the helicopter because they were shooting at it. So, we ran to the village. They know us there. Some of our workers come from there. And I was just there for a party."
"I was with [the mine foreman]. We thought we'd be safe in the village. Everybody had been so nice just a week before. But then the rebels attacked the village. And everybody started running again.
"We ran into the bush and hid there until about 3 am. Then, we made our way to the next village. From there, we were able to get to Bukavu.
"I don't have a job. Or a passport. Or any money."
Edward is on his way to Kinshasa, where the US embassy has promised to give him a temporary passport. From there, he'll fly to Paris, where his father will be eager to meet him and hear the rest of the story.
Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.