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Significant thrust on infrastructure development, especially roads. Concerted measures to boost the manufacturing sector. |
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Excise duty on passenger cars and utility vehicles reduced from 32% to 24%. Excise duty on electric vehicles reduced to 8% from 16%. |
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Reduction in peak customs duty reduced from 30% to 25%. |
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While dividend tax rate has been scrapped at the shareholders end, a 12.5% dividend distribution tax has been imposed on companies. |
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Extension of R&D benefits. |
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Almost 75 small-scale industries (SSI) dereserved in continuation of the last year's budget when 50 SSI were dereserved. |
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Additional cess of Rs 0.50 paise per litre on diesel. |
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The auto sector, especially commercial vehicle manufacturers, is likely to be the biggest beneficiaries due to the thrust on infrastructure. The Finance Minister has gone beyond roads to concentrate more on ports and airports, which is also a step in the right direction. This would translate into increased movement of goods, domestic as well as international. This combined with measures taken by the FM to provide a fillip to the manufacturing sector could translate into higher tonnage demand. We expect the CV sector to grow at 5%-6% in FY04. |
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The reduction in excise duty on passenger cars and MUVs will translate into lower prices. While we do not expect a commensurate decline in prices in light of hardening of input costs, if demand were to slowdown further, manufacturers can resort to price reduction to sustain volumes and market share. Key beneficiaries are Maruti Suzuki, Telco, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Tempo. We expect the reduction in excise duty on electric vehicle to benefit M&M significantly. The company already manufacturers and markets 'Bijlee' in select metros. |
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The imposition of Rs 0.50 per litre on diesel is a negative for the sector. One has to view the recent rise in retail prices following the hardening of crude prices in the international markets. Higher fuel costs act as a growth hurdle, particularly for the CV and the passenger car segments. |
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For high dividend paying auto majors like Hero Honda and TVS, the dividend distribution tax will result in significant outflow. Estimates on our sample study on seven auto majors including Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto, TVS, Telco, M&M, Ashok Leyland and M&M based on our FY04 estimated earnings pegs total dividend tax payment at Rs 1,176 m.
Dividend distribution tax effect...
| (Rs m) |
Dividend tax* |
No. of shares (m) |
Per share outgo (Rs) |
| Hero Honda |
402 |
200 |
2.0 |
| Bajaj Auto |
248 |
101 |
2.5 |
| TVS |
70 |
23 |
3.0 |
| Telco |
233 |
319 |
0.7 |
| M&M |
76 |
116 |
0.7 |
| Ashok Leyland |
108 |
119 |
0.9 |
| Punjab Tractors |
39 |
61 |
0.6 |
*Based on our FY04E earnings
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The automobile sector is highly reliant on the small-scale industrial sector for components. Though SSIs that are dereserved have not been detailed, the opening up of SSI will result in access of capital and technology, both of which has been hard to come by for smaller players. If SSIs are able to increase productivity, auto majors also tend to benefit in a large way, both from better quality and lower costs. |
Key pre-budget memorandum for 2003-04 from Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) is as follows:
| Reduction in excise duty on passenger cars and passenger vehicles from the current level of 32% to 16%. Total incidence of indirect tax should be limited to 25% (i.e. 16% Cenvat and state value-add tax of 9%). Current incidence of tax and other levies surmount to 65% at the current juncture. |
| There should be level playing field for both OEMs and independent bus and truck body builders in the unorganised sector. SIAM has suggested that either both the sectors should be exempted from payment of duty on body portion or both pay duty on the same. |
| Retention of the existing customs duty structure for both passenger cars and two/three wheelers (60% for new completely built units and 30% for other than CBUs). |
| Higher weighted deduction of 150% for research and development expenditure and incentivising fleet retirement programme to address pollution from in-use vehicles and also enhance road safety. |
Mr. S. Sandilya, Chairman, Eicher Group
"We look forward to the Union Budget with optimism. While we cannot speculate on the Union Budget, we can only hope that the focus would be to provide incentives for investments in infrastructure development and technological upgradation, revive capital market sentiments and encourage spending etc. with a view to accelerate the growth of the economy.
Rationalisation of tariffs and taxes has been the industry's expectation for quite some time now and we feel that the process must be accelerated and not deferred. Abolition of dividend tax should also be considered.
The Golden Quadrilateral project should receive top priority and major highways should be re-laid to ensure faster and safer movement of goods and people. This is expected to boost the outlook for the automobile sector, which is a major driver for growth of the economy".
Mr Onkar Singh Kanwar, CMD, Apollo Tyres Ltd
The overall thrust of our reforms should be on measures to stimulate demand, measures for encouraging private investment and capital formation, reduction in taxes to encourage consumer spending, cheap availability of development finance, legal changes to stimulate entrepreneurship and transparency in government.
The Budget must inter alia include:-
- Incentives to invest in the green - field projects
- Measures for consumers to spend more
- Vision on power sector and labour reforms
- Incentives to boost Capital market.
- Reducing the disabilities in the case of Indian Industry, and
- Global Recognition of India's determinationto move forward.
The Government must reform and review the existing labour laws to facilitate companies to restructure - Special Economic Zones must be outside the purview of labour laws.
| Budget 2000-01 |
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Budget 2001-02 |
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Budget 2002-03 |
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| Customs duty reduced to 35% from 40%. |
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Withdrawal of special excise duty of 8% on two-wheelers and cars. Import of second hand vehicles permitted at 105% with effective duty at 180%. Accelerated depreciation of 50% of new CVs for the first year. |
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Peak customs duty reduced to 30% from 35%. Dereservation of 50 items of select components that fall under the SSI sector. Administered interest rates lowered by 50 basis points. Special excise duty on passenger car sales, MUVs and tyres retained. Petrol and diesel prices reduced. |
| [Read more on Budget 2000-01] |
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[Read more on Budget 2001-02] |
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[Read more on Budget 2002-03] |
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| Key Positives |
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| Since liberalisation in early 90's, the automobile sector has grown tremendously in terms of market size and production capacities. |
| The government has placed renewed thrust on infrastructure development. This augurs well for the sector, as goods movement will increase over the long-term. |
| The consistent decline in interest rates over the years has benefited the industry immensely. Given the long-term bias for softer rates, this would continue to drive growth. |
| Stringent pollution norms in metros could translate into higher volume growth for all vehicles. |
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| Key Negatives |
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| Lack of investments and slower progress of reforms has been affecting business confidence. The fiscal state of the economy is also a cause of concern. |
| With India coming under the WTO purview, competition is expected to rise multifold. Indian companies also have to contend with imports in the future. Already a number of companies are introducing vehicles in the CKD route. |
| Higher customs duty on select raw materials has been affecting profit margins of domestic auto majors. |
| The expected fall in agricultural output in FY03 could have a lag effect on auto demand in FY04. |
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