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2010 should get a Sehwagian start
(Jan 2, 2010)
It seems that, come Monday, stockmarkets should take off in Sehwagian style. Globally, the fiscal and monetary stimuli packages of US, China, and European countries, have succeeded in stanching panic and in replacing consumer demand to propel economic growth. The US economy will grow at 3.5% in 2010, the fastest since 2004, according to Dean Maki, the Chief Economist at Barclays and voted the best forecaster. He expects US consumers to come back into spending mode in the second half of 2010.
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Is the rally fizzling out?
(Oct 3, 2009)
The rally appears to be losing steam, and the market may well make a temporary peak in the coming fortnight. It would then provide an opportunity to buy in a dip. Last week, fed by large foreign inflows, the sensex climbed 441 points, to end the week at 17134 whilst the Nifty gained 124 to end at 5083.
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Compare and contrast
(Nov 7, 2009)
India is a land of such contrasts! In my column last week I gave 3 reasons to feel bullish, viz the flow of KG gas, the huge spend on roads and the UIN project. Last week gave a powerful reason to be bearish, which this column has also been harping on for some time, viz. the abysmal quality of public governance.
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Is an upward breakout imminent?
(Jan 16, 2010)
The explosive start this columnist was expecting at the start of the year may well happen in the coming week. The market has tried to break through, but has fallen back from, the level of 17,700, from whence it had declined in May 2008. Perhaps it may crack through this level in the coming week and rally sharply.
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Planning for the future
(Jan 30, 2010)
Governments, and their agencies, must plan for the future. Some do, some don?t. The price of neglect is paid for by future generations. The seminal event of last week was the RBI credit policy in which a hike of 75 basis points, or 0.75%, in CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) was announced.
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Is India a global power?
(Nov 28, 2009)
At the Washington summit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama, the latter described India as a global power. Yes, India is one of the 4 BRIC countries and yes, it has made great strides in its economy and yes, it holds the promise to become a dominant economic power. That promise, however, can be translated into reality with good governance, both public and corporate, and that is not something very much in evidence
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Dow & S&P may spoil the party
(Oct 24, 2009)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting the 10,000 mark has cheered investors, but technically both it and the S&P 500 are showing some weakness and may spoil....
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The India story and the global story
(Nov 21, 2009)
The India story remains good. A large domestic market with less reliance on exports; slow but steady continuation of economic reforms; sensible monetary management; discovery of gas reserves that can improve the Government balance sheet; plans to spend massive amounts on infrastructure like roads and power; simplification of indirect taxes on a non discretionary basis and a programme to uniquely identify each citizen making them electronically connected, are some of the reasons for optimism. Foreign institutional investors, who had invested $ 17.6 b. in 2007, withdrawn $ 12 b.
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The brokeback debt mountain
(Jan 9, 2010)
In order to stave off the global financial crisis their own bankers had created, aided by poor ratings by rating agencies and by brokers selling all sorts of junk, Governments have pumped in huge amounts of money to replace private consumption.
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For a few $ more, starring Ben Bernanke
(Dec 5, 2009)
If Dubai was a shocker, the US would be a tsunami! So thinks Porter Stansberry, in an article The run on the $ starts soon' in which he talks about the fact that the US has to refinance $ 2 trillion of short term debt within the next 12 months! Together with additional deficit spending of $ 1.5 trillion (some people are talking about one more stimulus package) the requirement is $ 3.5 trillion! Dubai's $ 60 b. is peanuts!
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