Sorry Warren Buffett, I'm Following This Man Instead of You in 2020

Mar 30, 2020

Ankit Shah, Research analyst

What a terrible month it has been!

With all the renewed optimism that we saw in the first two months of 2020, who would have thought that the markets would crash so badly in March? (Well, I do know one person did warn us about an impending correction. Read on...)

Right now, I'm sure you're wondering how to make sense of this sudden and rapid market crash. What's going to happen next? How is this bear market going to progress? Will markets tank further? When will the markets bottom out? And based on these factors, how should one play the markets right now?

I'm also sure you're curious about what I've stated in the headline - why I'm keenly following another man instead of legendary investor Warren Buffett.

I'll explain all of it in a bit.

First, here's a personal story I'd like to share...

When I was in college, I wanted to take up psychology for my graduation.

But for some reasons, I couldn't pursue that path.

At that time, my dad initiated me into the stock markets with some books on technical analysis, market psychology, and human behaviour.

I was immediately sold on the idea of building a solid grasp of market psychology and using that skill to make money in the stock markets. So, it was through chart reading and technical analysis that I first traded the markets as a teenager.

That got me off to a great start...

And then, a little later, I also discovered a dusty, second-hand copy of The Warren Buffett Way in my dad's bookshelves.

That opened a whole new world for me.

During my undergraduate years, I devoured several famous investing books on the Oracle of Omaha. Warren Buffett's simple and sagacious approach that helped him amass an insanely enormous fortune seemed so compelling that I decided to make a career following his footsteps.

And trust me, I did the right thing.

In 2010, fresh out of B-school, I did two things that further solidified my belief in Buffett-style long-term investing - I bought Page Industries (on which I made over 12x gains in 7 years), and then a few months later, I joined Equitymaster as an equity research analyst.

So, what has changed now? What makes me say that I'm following someone else instead of Warren Buffett now.

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Let me explain...

Warren Buffett is the most widely followed investor in the world. In the investing world, he's pretty much a demigod. For many, every word he speaks is gospel truth. And his actions, the act of God.

It's not hard to imagine why he enjoys this kind of a fan following. He's truly a rare genius with all the right ingredients to make a super successful investor. And the massive riches he has built, decade after decade, are enough to shut up any critic.

My respect and admiration for Warren Buffett's investing genius has not changed one bit. At the very core, I'm all for Buffett-style value investing.

Then what has changed? What do I really mean when I say I'm not following Warren Buffett now?

I only mean that I'm not a blind 'bhakt' to everything that Warren Buffett says and does.

For instance, Buffett hates gold. But I disagree with him.

Last year, I personally visited a bullion refinery in south Mumbai and bought physical gold and silver.

Buffett has often said that he doesn't care much about macro stuff. He focuses on just the businesses of the companies in which he invests.

While I prefer the bottom-up process of stock-picking, I don't think we can ignore the macro stuff anymore. The recent market crash and the coronavirus crisis expose how interconnected and rapidly changing our world is.

Besides, Buffett has also famously said that his favourite holding period is 'forever'. Some lay investors misinterpret this as a buy-and-forget strategy.

Given the extremely fragile and distorted global financial system that we're in now, I'm not in for indefinite holding periods.

I understand that patience is extremely rewarding in the markets, but there's a thin line between patience and blindness.

So, while I would like to retain Buffett's value investing principles, I think the changing times call for a more dynamic approach.

And that is why I'm listening very closely to India's #1 trader Vijay Bhambwani.

Yes, Vijay is the man I'm following right now.

In fact, it was on Vijay's recommendation that I went and bought physical gold and silver last year.

He'd been warning that the stock markets were likely to correct after the Budget.

His predictions about the fate of crude oil prices were bang on.

He was rightly bullish about gold and silver prices since last year.

He was on the mark when he predicted a sharp depreciation in the rupee.

And he's probably the rare trader in the investing world who has delivered 11 consecutive successful trades for his subscribers over the last six months.

His premium trading service Weekly Cash Alerts is up 42.95%.

Now, I can imagine someone being right about one or two things by fluke.

But the way I've seen Vijay be on top the game - be it his grasp of macroeconomics, geopolitics, global financial markets and the way he connects the dots - it's hard to ignore his perspective and insights.

But what I like most about Vijay is that with his deep understanding of how the world works, he is also able to spot great money-making opportunities.

What more, Vijay juggles between multiple asset classes. And it doesn't matter which way the markets are headed for his trades to work.

Another factor that resonates with me personally is that he is extremely risk-averse. If he sees that the risk-reward equation is not in his favour, he'll simply not do anything. That's the kind of a trader I like.

I would highly recommend you join Vijay Bhambwani's free summit today at 5 pm where he's going to reveal his biggest trading opportunity of 2020.

Register for free now...

Warm regards,

Ankit Shah
Editor, Equitymaster Insider
Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (Research Analyst)

PS: Today at 5 PM, Vijay will reveal his personal trading blueprint on the Weekly Cash Summit. Click here to register FREE...

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1 Responses to "Sorry Warren Buffett, I'm Following This Man Instead of You in 2020"

Sanjay Bhuia

Mar 31, 2020

I want to know about investing in detail

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