The next crisis is ten times global GDP
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» Fed's policies to blame for high oil prices
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In fact, legendary investor Mark Mobius opines that another crisis could just be lurking around the corner. Simply because enough attempts have not been made to solve any of the issues that caused the previous crisis. Take derivatives for instance. A web of these instruments was woven around loans given to subprime borrowers and marketed by the investment banking community to banks and financial institutions. These transactions were too complex to be comprehended by many. Sso much so that it became difficult to pinpoint the party with whom the final liability lay. Despite this, derivatives since the crisis have continued to thrive. There have been no stringent regulations put in place for these 'weapons of mass destruction'. The market for them continues to grow. In fact, according to Mobius, the total value of derivatives in the world exceeds total global gross domestic product by a factor of 10.
And if you add to that the loose monetary policies being unleashed by the Fed, you have a recipe for another crisis. Indeed, global markets would do well to not let the derivatives fiasco unfold once again. Because recovering from another crisis will be more painful than the previous one. And the next time governments will simply not enough money to prop up economies since they are already heavily indebted.
Do you think that a thriving derivatives market globally could cause another crisis? Share your comments with us or post your views on our facebook page.
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Data Source: The Economist
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Nothing new in this we believe. But we seriously doubt whether such a trend is sustainable. Most of the recovery seems to be based on the Fed's loose monetary policy and Government spending. Thus, when the wheels begin to come off there, we don't think job creation will be able to hold on its pace. Then there is the weak consumer demand that is also likely to keep a lid on realty prices for quite some time to come. In view of these factors, it is indeed hard to believe that recovery in US real estate, if there is any, is sustainable in the long term.
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The logic is simple. The Fed had used virtual dollars to buy treasuries and keep interest rates low. This forced investors to put their money in the private sector that offers higher returns thus driving up the prices of commodities and stocks. The routing of money from long term fixed income investments led to a global oversupply of dollar, the currency in which oil is traded globally. And hence the rising oil prices to offset the low buying power of the dollar.
The Fed's gamble was that the adverse impact of high oil prices would be offset by benefits of quantitative easing. That has obviously not happened yet. Considering that Fed intends to withdraw its monetary support by June, we doubt that the gamble will ever pay off.
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14 Responses to "The next crisis is ten times global GDP"
hIMANGA
Jun 7, 2011f a balance has to struck, then at the Global stock bourses, the derivatives exposure should be only 40% that of the cash transactions. That way there will be some form of realism in the global stock bourses. There needs to be an introduction of some better regulations concerning derivatives in these times of unprecedented QE's by the US fed. More the easy money being pumped in more the fictitious exposures will prevail. Need an Equilibrium to bring about reality in the global stock markets
uday pasricha
Jun 3, 2011Derivatives and other descriptions that no one can quite explain are all okay as long as the trend towards "greater leverage" is regulated. Trading billions using only a few million through electronic tools, looking for profit on the 3rd and 4th decimal place is the real evil which will destroy the world economy. The average holding time of investments is now few minutes and a few days is considered a long time, and yet the same guys give advice on long term. How can this be called investment? Every wall street firm and now even in india everything is based on day trade. We should thank our stars that the erstwhile hallowed names are gradually being vanquished based on greed, but in the bargain they have and will bankrupt nations. The last big one around would likely be the creator and cause of the next disaster as despite all the scandals they are still around and only getting bigger. Size is no longer an intent for efficiency but now a form of protection and black mail - too big to fail! They will hold the world to ransom for another bail out and reward themselves millions again and again despite failure.
The problem is that our systems are still in jurassic park as far as measure ability is concerned. As long as we have only OUTPUT as the measure, we will continue to think for the shortest possible term. Gestation and values based on time will become subjects of history. After all we refer to Buffet as the Oracle. The last of an era who may have to change himself at this age if he is to play in this short term non linear era.
Adi Daruwalla
Jun 1, 2011If a balance has to struck, then at the Global stock bourses, the derivatives exposure should be only 40% that of the cash transactions. That way there will be some form of realism in the global stock bourses. There needs to be an introduction of some better regulations concerning derivatives in these times of unprecedented QE's by the US fed. More the easy money being pumped in more the fictitious exposures will prevail. Need an Equilibrium to bring about reality in the global stock markets
vijaykumar
Jun 1, 2011Regulations should be there for derivatives.FED policy must also be changed.Why IMF is sitting quiet in these issues ?It is anybody's guess!!!
Brijesh Trivedi
May 31, 2011We cant understand why US is not ready look at the
situatuon and not trying to control such things. Are they
trying all these to just avoid the devaluation of dollar. But
they may end up in more trouble by not controlling these.
George
May 31, 2011The inevitable would happen whether it is today or tomorrow. The economists & politicians are greedy for wealth amassing than the average ordinary citizens. The more the so called poitical economists would try to solve the present econmic crisis the more catastrophical would be the result! Because the fundamental priciples of their intentions based on greediness. So in my frank opinion I would say the inevitable has to happen either today or tomorrow. This tomorrow may be prolonged to 5 to 10 years and by the time the GOLD would be in the peak high nobdoy can just imagine!!
Rawel Singh
May 31, 2011You are doing a very good job in information dissemination. But please consider to stop treating the likes of Buffet and Mobious as gods. They are quoted too often like scriptures are in congregations.
Sthithapragnja
May 31, 2011Eq.Master Team,
In all my humility/ignorance I am prompted to observe as under:(I honestly state that I am neither an economist nor a political thinker !!)
The fast brewing crisis as I could understand after going through your eloquent article,is like a person who has one of his legs entangled in the "QUICKSANDS " and when he wants to pull out his one leg struck therein the other leg goes slightly deeper !!
I do not wish to make a prognosis of the ultimate fate/destiny of that person which is indeed very PATHETIC like the position of so many nations at present ??
I hasten to conclude !!
gkbudhiraja
Jun 10, 2011It is for sure that next crisis is certain, the question is not if but when. The fact of the matter is tht globally so much of capacity has been created in manufacturing in the name of growth that small downward correction in world GDP growth will snowball into bigger crisis. Add to that Geopolitical tension and you have sure recipe of steep down ward correction in asset prices. How long the patient can be kept on ventlator when it needs serious operation ? Till now the pain has been somewhat eased by pumping trillions which are mostly finding their way in derivative markets. The truth is that these derivative instruments just facilitate earning millions in Bonus to Wall street people