1991 to 2012: Has India come full circle?

1991 or 2013,Narasimha or Manmohan if the cycle moves, it is irrelvent whethaer it is congress or BJP make use of the situation.

I would say that, to a large extent, India's problems today are self created, where as in 1991, we were surrounded by some real issues.

If the Congress leadership looks back and analyses as what they did right in 1991, that it self will start turning the things around. But there is lack of motivation and leadership skills at the top today. Manmohan Singh should be used as an Economist rather than using his services as Prime Minister. Governance should be improved with immediate effect and every effort should made to solve the problem of inflation.

There has to be a will to realize the problem and solve it.

The data projected is only that of the central Government. If you add the debt burden and budget deficit of the states, the picture becomes much more grim, since most of the states are running huge deficits with more expenditure than income. The reasons are many. Among those are :financial profligacy to cater to all sorts of schemes, which are not benefiting the Aam Admi, liberal pay and pension benefits to Govt servants, which have bankrupted the states, high corruption at all levels which ensured very little reaches the people, practically no consensus by political parties on any issue, unchecked money flow, without accountability, artificial scarcities of commodoties and a host of other reasons.

Sir, I think it will be worst of all.

Govt tries too hard to prove 1991 better than 2012!

More than inaction, the Indian government has been characterised by self righteousness, arrogance and wrong actions at every stage. These have been in evidence in the way they have dealt with rampant corruption, the Anna Hazare movement, the Vodafone case and many others. These combined with the consummate skill of scoring self goals and committing hara kiri will no doubt bring down this government in 2014. Sadly, the options do not seem very bright.

Back in 1991, the Indian politicians and policymakers understood the gravity of the situation and took appropriate steps to remedy it. Fast forward 21 years and the same people are in denial that there is a problem. They are comparing a developing economies growth rate of 5.3% with developed Eurozone economies and patting themselves on the back. Don't they realize that for a developing country like India, 5% growth is equivalent to 0% growth in a developed country? So essentially India is now "growing" at 0.3% provided the government's data is accurate.

India's FX situation is as dire as it was in 1991 despite a huge FX reserves of $ 295B vs $ 1.6B then. You don't mention the FX debt that India has. Why just talk about FX reserves? What will remain if you subtract FX debt?
The ONLY causes for INR's fall is the MASSIVE TRADE DEFICIT ( $ 185B vs $ 6B then) and MASSIVE INFLATION ( well over 15% now despite all govt. stats). Until we are able to reverse the trade deficit and turn it to SURPLUS like China or Japan, INR will merrily continue its slide.

Agree with Mr.De Souza's comments. I had some respect for equitymaster compared to the rest of the Indian stock "professional" crowd. But instead of being a good balanced guide to your readers on the current issues, you seem to be an embodiment of the manic depressive "Mr.Market". This is very sad, especially for those who were beginning to look at you differently from the crowd.

Yes indeed, we are facing similar situation, though in different circumstances. One major difference I find is political. Then, faced with an economic sitution, a quiet and unassuming leader, Mr Narasimha Rao, used an economist in Manmohan Singh to take India out of the rut. Though the real benefits of that move came around 10 years later when the private enterprises in the Services Industry took us to greater heights despite continuing infrastructure constraints.
Now, unfortunately, that economist has turned a quiet politician - not just in terms of his limited speech, but also limited action. One may wonder why this change in the great man, but then we are intelligent enough to understand the political ground realities of a coalition politics. Mr Rao was adept at handling a lack of majority in Loksabha then, but Mr Singh is just letting his coalition partners and some corrupt ministers to run the show, by being a silent spectator for the bad and worse things happening around him.

Lack of Political Will is therefore the biggest issue today. Once that is resolved and the government sets about repairing damage through strong will, all things will be back to normal for India - despite adverse conditions around the world (US, Europe) and in our Asian neighbourhood (China & Japan).

And of course, a PR & communication course should be taken by Mr Singh and his cabinet - will help it to communicate the various matters to the public better.