Is this asset class ripe enough to crash?

take it as a gift of modern trading tools and technicals which often lacks sanity if not lunacy the financialisation of co mmodities and ETF route of investments has attracted lot of non serious players in commodity arena which not only distorts the price mechanism but plays havoc by creating artificial levels of valuations and pushing out the serious players and evaluators out of the market mechanism for an extended long period thereby harming the society at large and prevent people from any valueaddition to their skills of pricediscovery . so one may better stop forecasting any rise or fall in commodity prices and be a spectator to the modern pricediscovers

The so called experts talking about a crash in commodities are day dreaming! They dont really know the ground level revolution taking place in India and China and how many multi millionaires these countries are creating. Just see how these countries' stocks are faring. Just see how quickly Gold and Silver came back. These experts are also not aware that the commodities that they are talking about are:
Not abundantly available;
Once purchased, are rarely resold (except for traders and speculators) and for oil, are consumed and finished;
India and China's obsession for Gold is unimaginable - in India alone, no festivity or a marriage is complete without a heavy investment in Gold;
So there could be some price corrections from time to time (10-15%), but the track of their prices is upward for a long term without any doubt.

I dont have anything to say adverse to your reco to extend RBI Governor Dr Subbarao's tenure. Infact his continuity will offer prolonged stability, instead of an induced short term nervousness, irrespective of likely policy leanings or status quo of a new Governor.

Yet, your portrayal, crediting Dr Subbarao for policy wisdom which is an envy even amongst other central banks (notably of developed economies & notoriously Alan Greenspan the Central banker who drove the Fed & US down the tube!) is, I think, misplaced. All credit should go to Dr YV Reddy, for steering India away from the abyss created by Greenspan for not just US, but for the whole world to fall.

No doubt, as a trusted lieutenant, Dr Subbarao stays the course charted by Dr Reddy (and I am sure, Dr Subbarao as an understudy, also played a role in authoring the RBI policies thru those difficult years of DR Reddy's tenure!).

Hope, the blue turbaned Dr is not compelled to bring in a politician like SM Krishna (in the name of fresh air, outside wisdom et al, euphemism for Coalition Dharma - take a look at the umpteen thoroughly unfit MOSs around the place, to ruin RBI's hard earned respect & stability & deny India Inc an opportunity to recover without pain thru the high inflation, high interest rate & high input cost regime.

It will not crack down.Slightly come down.This is the thing which never ripe nor remain too green to bite.

About your advice to invest in Mutual funds instead of keeping money in Fixed deposits, I beg to defer. I had the bitter experience of investing in several well reputed fundswhich gave me huge negative returns. What irks me most is while the Asset mangers collect fixed fees ( entry, exit, annual etc.,) they are not obliged to be accountable in anyway to the investor, while they make a packe( by way of huge pay, bonuses etc to the extent of even Rs 1 Cr.). I tried even private eqiuty investment ( 25 lakhs ) Even that was a miseable failure. The problem seems to be that these asset managers do gambling with a semblance of eductaed guess work and create huge hype regarding their abilities. Indian stocks are volatile beacuse of foreign investments, and fundamentals and logic does not work.

Eq . Master Team,
Your above quesion reminds me to respond with an apt analogy as under ::

In the good olden daysof yore (in the absence of the latest laser SURGERY to remove cataract OF THE EYEs ??)
the Eye surgeon after detailed examination will advise the patient to come after some time as it is " not ripe enough " to be operated upon ??

Similarly the asset class(commodities)are not yet
" ripe enough" to be operated upon (to cure them from the disease/illness) of the impending CRASH ??

I hasten to conclude !!

The commodity price index of India to be followed.

China plans to build 36 million affordable homes over five years. Will it not require commodities?

oh sure, sensex will touch 22k...somethin like this was gonna happen by the end of last yr as well na...wht happened to those reports which predicted of a gr8 correction after QEII...in tht false hope i kept aside my money with patience, hopin correction will come...but now even my parents r troubled by my plans & logic, as the mkt keeps movin up.

i submitted em a watchlist of 32 stocks (which i thought wld never go up) but 26 of em matched, rather surpassed the expected returns...m being asked 2 engage myself, the concern of family is logical...i somehow managed to buy time till end of july claimin tht a correction will happen...come august, my money's association with the watchlist is certain coz even i don't wanna lose out on the rally...the herd may b goin in the wrong direction, but i dont hav a choice, rather m forcibly left with none...May Nomura b right!!