What will the leadership change in 2012 bring?
In this issue:
» A possible solution for OMCs
» Pessimistic view on US recovery in 2012
» Europe should learn a lesson from a toy maker
» Investors to blame for the state of real estate
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Uprisings took place right from the Middle East to Wall Street. The Egyptian revolution took down the tyrannical leader Hosni Mubarak. But even the new military appointed leader cannot bring calm to Tahrir Square. Feared Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi is now dead. Anna Hazare single handedly challenged India's corrupt politicians, with social media and GenX providing backup. The Occupy Wall Street movement questioned the concentration of wealth in the hands of few. After staying silent for years, Chinese citizens are begging for more transparent and accountable governance.
While these movements in different countries had separate agendas, their complaints sprang from a common source. According to an article in Business Week, high rates of youth unemployment, frustration with crony capitalism, inequality and loss of faith in the established order contributed to the mess. Just to put things in perspective, youth unemployment in these frustrated countries are at all time highs. It is currently 25% Egypt, 40% in Greece, and 18% in the US. Thus, it is not surprising, that the youth are the leaders of such anti-establishment revolts.
Will things change in 2012 is the biggest question? Russia, China, France and more importantly the US are all expected to choose new leaders next year. In India a few states will also be busy with elections. But, with democracy under question and leaders vulnerable to public protests, we hope that the new heads of state are able to step up to the tall task in front of them.
Will the changing of the guard in 2012 bring a marked change in governance and accountability? Let us know your views or you can also comment on our Facebook page / Google+ page.
01:40 | Chart of the day | |
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Data source: The Global Retail Theft Barometer 2011 (Center for Retail Research) |
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Why are these expectations subdued? Well, there are many reasons for the same. The prevailing debt crisis in the Euro zone poses a threat of recession in the Europe. Plus China's giant growth engine is expected to sputter. All this would hurt the growth prospects of US exports. The country is still ridden under foreclosures problem, continuing to affect the housing industry. Budget cuts from the state and central governments would also keep growth at a slower pace. And last but not least, the employment condition is expected to remain subdued due to a slower pace of new job additions. Seems the US economy is in a long slump, and needs to go a long way to recover from its current state.
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It's been more than a year since petrol was deregulated. The move has not made things easier for state run OMCs or fiscal balance that are overburdened with under recoveries. The real game changer in fuel price reforms will be freeing diesel prices, the usage of which is almost four times of that of petrol. The Government has been dodging the diesel deregulation bullet since a long time. However, with the moderation in economic growth and ballooning fiscal deficit, keeping on the blinders regarding losses on diesel is not easy. While a direct deregulation of diesel seems unlikely due to upcoming state elections and high inflation, we believe imposing a cess on private diesel cars is a smart way not to let the privileged class take undue advantage without impacting the target beneficiaries.
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The Indian stock markets were up 1.6% during the week. News about easing of food inflation along with global cues regarding strengthening of the US economy helped the markets post gains for the week. Other world markets, all were in an upbeat mood except Japan (down by 0.1%) and China (down by 0.9%). France and the US were the top gainers up 4.4% and 3.6% respectively.
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Source: Yahoo Finance |
04:55 | Weekend Investing Mantra |
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6 Responses to "What will the leadership change in 2012 bring?"
naveen
Dec 25, 2011Surprised to hear such a comment by the author on imposing cess on private diesel cars...
SHYAM GUPTA
Dec 24, 2011DO NOT BOTHER ,NOTHING IS HAPPENIG,ALMIGHTY GOD IS ASKING ,DONOT DISTRUB ME BEYOND YOUR LIMIT,IF YOU ARE GOING TO DO REPEATEDLY ,I AM FORCED TO DO SOMETHING FOR BETTERMENT WHICH CAN BE MAHABHARAT. LET US WAIT & WATCH AS SOMANY PERSONS ARE TRYING FOR THAT,WE SHOULD NOT INDULGE OURSELF AS GOD IS WATCHING.
nandagopal
Dec 24, 2011Elections under present circumstances are not going to bring any good governance. all the major parties are flush with ill gotten funds and they can influence the voters. They spend a lot of money and once in power make several times that thro illegal contracts, influence transfers, arm twist common man, divert al the free bees given by the govt from poor and needy to their own henchmen, indulge in black marketting of fertlisers and other essential commodities, support bootlegging and goondaism, usurp land from poor farmers, threaten innocent and god fearing good citiezens and elders, influence officials in all fields. We need election reforms by which any person charged with any criminal activity and case filed by a govt agency would be ineligible for contesting the elections. All the property brought in dispute should be taken over from such accused and released only after the case is finally decided.
Tikam Patni
Dec 24, 2011Democracy the way it is practiced in India, it can easily be termed a "crony democracy".
Sundar
Dec 24, 2011Nothing will change. It will be worse than before. Russia elections are over. It is always Madvedev or Putin. China Election ?? Are you from Venus or Mars. In France, elections are fought on the basis of more pensions, more holidays or rumours. That's all. Our Indian markets are no way connected to happenings in these countries.
m c bhatt
Dec 29, 2011Nothing will change for sure as there is no willingness to do something concret for the economic health of the country. We are debating FDI and Globalization, look at US and other so-called developed economies, the Giants like Wal-mart have cornerred the income avenues using thier financial might and monopoliesed whatever possible using their ability of bulk purchases and sales at least margines eliminating any small enterprenure willing to trade at healthy margins. US for example should encourage small enterprenores to create small businesses at healthy margins so that they can earn their bread independently instead of quing for job at multinationals. If the present trend continues and multinationals are encouraged, the position in India will not be different than that in US.