Talking about cyclical industries, commodities are the first thing that come to our mind. Commodity prices can have a huge impact on inflation data as well. As per the latest wholesale price index (WPI), WPI inflation accelerated to 3.39% in December 2016 as compared to -1.06% during the corresponding month of the previous year. For November 2016, WPI stood at 3.15%.
The rise in WPI inflation is mainly on the back of rising global commodity prices and an unfavourable base effect.
Fuel and Power index rose sharply (on YoY Basis) on the back of the recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce crude oil output. Even oil producers outside the group led by Russia agreed to reduce the output. The low base effect of last year also contributed to a sharp increase of fuel and power index.
Manufactured products inflation, which largely contributed to the uptick in December 2016 WPI came in at a 14 month high of 3.37%. However, food inflation has turned negative for the first time since August 2015 at -0.7% in December 2016 as against 1.54% in the previous month.
In the coming months, it looks like WPI could inch up and CPI might soften. The RBI is scheduled to hold the next meeting of the monetary policy committee on 8 February and is likely to keep a close watch on these numbers.
Data Source: Ministry of commerce & Industry, GOI