The unbearable heat in May is making people think more about rains than corruption. Further, given the very strong linkages between rainfall and the entire Indian economy, near-normal monsoons can give a lot of cheer to India Inc. and the government alike. As such, monsoon forecasts are a matter of immense interest.
This time we have divergent monsoon forecasts from two agencies. On one hand Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expects rainfall to be normal at 93% of the 50-year average. Contrary to this, Skymet weather services expect the rains to be in excess of 102% of the long period average. While the chances of El-Nino have strengthened, Skymet still believes there are higher chances of good rains.
Today's chart of the day captures the track record of the two agencies and the actual rainfall since 2012. While predicting the outcome is a challenge Skymet seems to have an upper hand so far with its forecasts being closer to the actual figures. It would be interesting to see if the tradition continues this time around as well or not.
Data Source: Business Standard IMD= Indian Meteorological Department; LPA= Long Period Average