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No clear answer on the future growth of online retail
Jul 7, 2016

The frailties of forecasting are enough to be wary of. And then when you do the same in an environment in a state of flux, you're treading on even thinner ice.

Check out today's chart of the day for example. It pegs the estimates of India's e-commerce market size by consultancy and financial firms. The difference - US$ 70 billion - startling to say the least. Funnily, all the brokerages have cited mostly the same factors that will drive the sector's growth - growth in mobile Internet, rising incomes etc. Despite this, there's a vast difference in final estimate.

Such a wide difference between the lower end of the estimate and the higher one is - or rather should be - worrying. That's because many have been falling head over heels in put money in this sector. In the process, valuations of companies in the sector have been rich, to say the least. But when such kind of valuations are based on such shaky ground in terms of the variability of the future, it is usually a recipe for disaster.

Data Source: Mint research,

This Chart Of The Day was published in The 5 Minute WrapUp - A One-Item Investing To-Do List

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