What's your risk appetite? - The 5 Minute WrapUp by Equitymaster
Investing in India - 5 Minute WrapUp by Equitymaster
PRINTER FRIENDLY | ARCHIVES

What's your risk appetite? 

A  A  A
In this issue:
» FII ownership in Indian stock reaches a peak
» All eyes on the RBI - 'Will it, won't it' isn't the question anymore
» Where is the crude oil price headed?
» India's gold ETFs shine as buyers rush in
» ...and more!!


---------------------- Lucrative Gains in Derivatives ----------------------
New to Derivatives? Worried that it could be too complex? No problem! We have top Derivatives Analyst, Asad Dossani to help you pick out the winners. Our subscribers are sitting pretty on triple-double digit returns in just a few months! And at the time of going into print, 3 out of 3 open recommendations are in profit. Click here to know more...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

00:00
 
"So what's your risk appetite?"

This is a small question that an investment advisor generally asks his client before advising him on an investment. You must have faced a similar question from your advisor as well. On the face of it, this sounds a very simple question, at least for the advisor. But it leads the investor to some confusion and these questions - "What exactly is risk that the advisor is asking about? How do I measure my risk taking ability?"

The irony of this entire discussion is that both the investor and his advisor do not clearly understand what 'risk' actually is. In fact, most investors and advisors don't! But the word sounds fancy, and so it is spoken at will to show the sophistication of the discussion involved. So what does 'risk' really mean?

As per Warren Buffett, the risk of holding any stock (or for that matter, any investment) is only the 'permanent loss of capital'. So 'risk' for you would equate to a total loss of your investment. And your 'risk appetite' would mean your ability to take that total loss.

Of course, as investors, you won't want to buy any investment (like a stock) that can wipe out your money. So it is important to know what you are getting into. Even though some investments won't work out the way you expect, you'll make money over the long haul if you are clearly aware about the risks you are taking.

So, what's your risk appetite? Share with us or post your view on our Facebook page.

01:02  Chart of the day
 
Today's chart shows the performance of Indian companies on the net profit margin metric. As seen, after dipping in the quarter ended December 2008 (remember that was the peak of the global crisis), India Inc's net margins have recovered to the pre-crisis levels. Currently, of the few companies that have announced their December 2010 quarter results, the net margin stands at around 13.4%, almost same at the levels seen in the previous quarter (ended September 2010). We see these margins coming under some kind of pressure going forward. Our core reason for this belief is the rising cost of money and materials for Indian companies. While commodity prices are already on a tear, interest rates are looking set to rise further as well.

Data Source: CMIE Prowess;
Note: Data is representative of BSE-200 companies

01:35
 
Foreign ownership in listed Indian companies has reached a peak. FIIs raised stakes in a majority of companies. Their aggregate shareholding in the Nifty-50 firms rose to 17.88% in the quarter ended December 2010. Foreign investors invested a record US$ 28 bn (Rs 1.28 trillion) net of sales in 2010. This is expected to rise further as corporate profitability grows. The flow of foreign funds to Indian equities has been quite broad-based, with FII shareholding rising in companies of all sizes and across most sectors.

The growth potential of India remains quite intact. But factors such as high inflation, fiscal and current account deficits, and corruption may act as a wet blanket. And these concerns are weighing on the markets as of now. For the first time since May, FIIs turned net sellers of Indian equities. They sold off US$ 900 m worth of shares in the first fortnight of January. The trend in FII inflows in the months to come will depend on whether concerns such as inflation subside. Many investors will be waiting for the budget next month. The policy cues will be a major trigger for the further course of action.

02:23
 
Crude oil continues to flirt with US$ 100 per barrel mark. Quite understandably then, it is one of the most discussed commodities in the mainstream media. The Financial Times, for example, has written about how the price outlook is covered by global economic fog. The write up makes an attempt to outline three possible scenarios for oil prices going forward.

Scenario one is too sweet to be believed. It predicts strong economic growth for the emerging nations and a sort of 'meandering along' growth for the developed economies. It also points out to reduced tensions between the US and China and stable social and political climate in North Africa and Middle East. The end result? Oil prices remain strong and stabilise around US$ 100 a barrel.

The second scenario presented is that of a supply shock in the form of a terrorist attack with the same sending oil prices soaring to US$ 150 per barrel. The high oil prices push most developed economies back into recession. And the global demand for oil is seen crashing on account of a downward economic spiral.

The third and the final scenario is the likeliest we believe. It talks about how the bluff of a false economic growth is called by persistently high crude oil prices in the region of US$ 100 per barrel. As a consequence, economic growth collapses across the globe, more notably in the developed regions, driving oil prices to very low levels. Later on, prices are driven to such low levels that they allow economies to resume growth. OPEC, standing witness to all these events finally has the good sense to recognise that oil prices much greater than US$ 50 is not in its own long term interest and sanity is restored in oil prices for many more years to come.

Taking into consideration these scenarios, it will indeed take a brave soul to wager too much on which way the oil prices will move next.

03:41
 
Indian markets have started this week on a good note. The BSE-Sensex was trading with gains of around 160 points (0.9%) at the time of writing this. Today's gains were led by stocks from the banking and metals sectors. Other key Asian markets closed mixed. While China and Hong Kong were down 0.3% each, Japan was up 0.6%.

03:55
 
All eyes are set on the RBI as Asia's most conservative central bank is set to take a call on interest rates tomorrow. While the certainty of an interest rate hike is well accepted, the quantum of hike is what is being speculated. For the past few months inflation has brought in difficult times for companies and individuals alike. A steep rise in interest rates may arrest price rises in the medium term. But in the meanwhile consumption and investment both may get affected.

There is no denying the fact that the RBI needs to do what is a must for the long term interests of the economy. But Indian policy makers have of late become very quarterly GDP growth obsessed. Hence for the RBI to walk the fine line in terms of balancing growth and inflation will be a tough task. Especially without sufficient cooperation from the government. We only hope that this time around the rate hikes yield some tangible results on the inflation control front.

04:34
 
Gold ETFs (exchange traded funds) are enjoying the spot of good run they have had since the final months of last year. For the beginning of 2011 looks good as well as religious festivals and the marriage season keep the demand for the precious metal alive. As per the World Gold Council, the total assets under management of all listed gold ETFs in India have grown to about 15 tonne. This is from just 8-9 tonne four months ago. Interestingly, Indians so far have always preferred to buy gold in physical quantities across years. That too most of it as jewellery. Thus, an increased preference towards gold ETFs would mean that the sophistication of Indian consumers is rising.

04:58  Today's investing mantra
"The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth." - Warren Buffett
The 5 Minute WrapUp Premium is now Live!
A brand new initiative of Equitymaster, this is the Premium version of our daily e-newsletter The 5 Minute WrapUp.

Join us in this journey to uncover the sensible way of managing money and identifying investment opportunities across various asset classes including Stocks, Gold, Fixed Deposits... that over time can help you realize your life's goals...

Latest EditionGet Access
Recent Articles:
How Unique Are the Companies You Invest In?
August 21, 2017
One of the hallmarks of successful investing is to look out for companies that have a unique and enduring moat.
You've Heard of Timeless Books... Ever Heard of Timeless Stocks?
August 19, 2017
Ever heard of Lindy Effect? Find out how you can use it to pick timeless stocks.
Why NOW Is the WORST Time for Index Investing
August 18, 2017
Buying the index now will hardly help make money in stocks even in ten years.
This Small Cap Can Drive Chinese Players Out of India (and Make a Fortune in the Process)
August 17, 2017
A small-cap Indian company with high-return potential and blue-chip-like stability is set to supplant the Chinese players in this niche segment.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "What's your risk appetite?". Click here!

11 Responses to "What's your risk appetite?"

KITTU

Feb 6, 2011

THERE IS NO ROOM FOR RISK IN INVESTMENT IN EQUITY MARKET
IF YOU BUY PARTNERSHIP OF THE COMPANY AFTER DOING FULL RESEARCH ABOUT THE COMPANY. NOT ONLY THROUGH THE RECORD AVAILABLE AT COMPANY'S WEBSITE OR ANY WHERE ELSE , BUT WE HAVE TO HAVE EXPOSURE TO OVER-ALL WORKING OF THE COMPANY( ESTABILISHING SOME INSIDER CONTACTS )
WE HAVE TO AVOID SO CALLED ANALYSTS/ EXPERTS COZ THEY WORK FOR THEIR BENEFIT & NOT OF YOURS.

Like 

Mahesh Singla

Jan 25, 2011

In one year my risk of loss is one lakh I have already loss 20 lakh in 5 year

Like 

Bh Bhaskar

Jan 25, 2011

When a person enters stock market, it should be presumed that he is ready to take risk. But the risk bearing capacity of 55 years will be less when compared with that of 25 years old person. But how to calculate it? In my opinion, a person's earning capaicity drastically comes down when he reaches 60 years. This 60 should be taken as 100%. Therefore, higher his age lower will be his risk. The Formula can be
[(60 - Age) X 100]/60
Therefore, a person whose age is 20 years, risk will be 66.66%; 35 years will be 41% and so on. In special circumstances, the risk can be higher.

Bh Bhaskar

Like 

Abu rehan

Jan 24, 2011

without taking high risk,it is impossible to succeed in any field.

Like 

Manoj Kumar

Jan 24, 2011

Mine is say Rs10000/- per month. How does my risk appetite makes a difference to my investment. People may be having higher risk appetites but nobody wants to lose money. If having higher risk appetites leads to higher profits with occasional losses (which is quite understandable) then only risk appetite is meaningful otherwise its another way of fleecing the unsuspecting clients.

Like 

satish ogale

Jan 24, 2011

very high. even in 2008-2009 i did not sold my holding. recovered everything in 2009-2010

Like 

S. G.Patel

Jan 24, 2011

No one can exactly assess the risk.
My understanding which I myself can not strictly follow though wishes to do so.
Anyone who loves and always ready book loss and do so when it is limted and digestable can earn.
Anyone who does not change stoploss and does enter again in it in a short time can earn.

Like 

nishaa

Jan 24, 2011

for eg:
U have a position in long and u r unable to book the profit ,as U were not flexible ie u were strict to your target ,and u are not able to book profit in it ,the risk appetite will be reverse the position with the intra day lows rate ,Unless u book a profit , or position becomes neutralised

Like 

SS Varadan

Jan 24, 2011

Hi,

I am calculated risk taker?!
Can sustain a max loss(probability of 20%) of 20% of the TOTAL equity capital, for a well researched (80% probability)investment Reward of 25%. I trust the research analysis of Equity Master and go by that(Top 15), always!

Like 

Shome suvra chakraborty

Jan 24, 2011

My risk tolerance is high, as a result my risk penalty is low.

Like 
Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "What's your risk appetite?". Click here!

MOST POPULAR | ARCHIVES | TELL YOUR FRIENDS ABOUT THE 5 MINUTE WRAPUP | WRITE TO US

Copyright © Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited. All rights reserved.

Any act of copying, reproducing or distributing this newsletter whether wholly or in part, for any purpose without the permission of Equitymaster is strictly prohibited and shall be deemed to be copyright infringement

Disclosure & Disclaimer: Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (hereinafter referred as 'Equitymaster') is an independent equity research Company. The Author does not hold any shares in the company/ies discussed in this document. Equitymaster may hold shares in the company/ies discussed in this document under any of its other services.

This document is confidential and is supplied to you for information purposes only. It should not (directly or indirectly) be reproduced, further distributed to any person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose whatsoever, without the consent of Equitymaster.

This document is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity, who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject Equitymaster or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is sent or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored.

This document does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual subscribers. Our research recommendations are general in nature and available electronically to all kind of subscribers irrespective of subscribers' investment objectives and financial situation/risk profile. Before acting on any recommendation in this document, subscribers should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. The price and value of the securities referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and subscribers may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Equitymaster and its affiliates do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The views/opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. This document should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security or asset in any jurisdiction. Equitymaster and its affiliates, its directors, analyst and employees will not be responsible for any loss or liability incurred to any person as a consequence of his or any other person on his behalf taking any decisions based on this document.

As a condition to accessing Equitymaster content and website, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, available here. The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results.

SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014, Registration No. INH000000537.

Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited. 103, Regent Chambers, Above Status Restaurant, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021. India.
Telephone: +91-22-61434055. Fax: +91-22-22028550. Email: info@equitymaster.com. Website: www.equitymaster.com. CIN:U74999MH2007PTC175407