A Budget as meek as it could be! - The 5 Minute WrapUp by Equitymaster
Investing in India - 5 Minute WrapUp by Equitymaster
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A Budget as meek as it could be! 

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In this issue:
» Who were the major inflation contributors in 2011-12?
» What does the Budget have for retail investors?
» FM doubles customs duty on gold imports
» Employees will have to bear with this sharp rate cut
» ...and more!


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00:00
 
The financial year 2011-12 was quite a challenging year for the Indian economy on several fronts. A series of global shocks coupled with internal problems such as high food and fuel inflation, and a political deadlock that ensured no significant reforms be made, put tremendous pressure on the domestic economy. These factors not only slowed down economic growth, but led the government into a fiscal mess. With this is mind, we hoped that today the government would wake up from it deep slumber and initiate some tough reforms to curb the aggravating fiscal crisis.

At one point during the Budget speech, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee borrowed a Shakespearean line before presenting some of his proposals: "I must be cruel to be kind." But the Budget he presented was just too meek to wheedle any kind of change. He played it safe, keeping away from any radical reforms that could take the economy in a new direction. In other words, the game of politics won over economics and reason.

The Indian government failed terribly on the fiscal deficit front for the financial year 2011-12. Against a projected deficit of 4.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the year ended at about 5.9% of GDP. The deficit target for the next fiscal has been pegged at 5.1%. What is even worse is the fact that the Budget showed no inclination towards bringing down expenditure in the form of subsidies.

Also, there were no concrete steps to expand the direct tax net. Even the disinvestment target of Rs 300 bn was quite disappointing. How the government will achieve this remains obscure. But unfortunately, the proceeds from divestments still remain critical for capital expenditures. Moreover, the implementation of key measures such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Direct Tax Code (DTC) has been left to a later stage.

So forget the mandate as per the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act to bring down fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP. That is already long forgotten. Will the government even be able to meet the 5.1% target? We can only pray. All in all, Budget speeches, akin to the Monetary Policy Review, are increasingly becoming mere rituals with no substance.

How would you rate the Union Budget 2012-13? Let us know your comments or post them on our Facebook page / Google+ page.

01:13  Chart of the day
 
During the financial year 2011-12, one of the biggest spokes in India's growth engine was inflation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continued to tighten money supply with a series of consecutive interest rates hikes. After several vain attempts, the inflation showed signs of cooling only around December 2011. Today's chart of the day shows the major inflation drivers. The contribution of primary articles has declined substantially to 28% in 2011-12 (April-January) from about 46% in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. However, the contribution of manufactured products rose significantly to 49% in 2011-12 (April-January) from 35% in 2010-11 (April-January). In comparison, the contribution of fuel has remained relatively stable.

Data source: Economic Survey 2011-12
*April to January 2012

01:35
 
The Budget certainly lacked any big bang wealth creating opportunity as far as the stock markets are concerned. But it did try to do its bit to enhance the depth of the market and pump in more liquidity into the same. Enter the Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings scheme. Introduced for the first time ever, the scheme allows for income tax deduction of 50% to new retail investors. However, the investment is subject to a maximum limit of Rs 50,000 and restricted to investors with annual income of less than Rs 10 lakh. Besides, the scheme also has a lock-in period of 3 years.

This move is certainly a precursor to the proposed Direct Taxes Code. But it is also an attempt to bring in more retail investors into the markets. It is indeed sad that Indian markets have to still rely on Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) inflows for its daily movements. Thus, if it has to have any hope of reducing this dependence, measures like the ones taken in the latest budget are more than welcome, we believe.

02:07
 
Financial sector reforms have been high on the government's agenda for not one or two but several years. However, each successive Union Budget fails to convince us about their implementation. The one designed for financial year 2012-13 was hardly a departure from the past. It took some baby steps towards financial inclusion and equity participation. However, it remained silent on some of the most pertinent reforms- subsidised lending to agriculture and low income housing to continue. Funding of infrastructure projects through wider external commercial borrowings (ECB) route was no novelty either. Hence, funds allocated for recapitalisation of PSU banks was also well in line with expectations. After all, they are the ones to bear the burden of subsidised lending on their asset quality. Infrastructure projects that have been deprived of funds from private sector, too, did not see any respite. For there were no announcements citing tangible measures to avert problems like land acquisition. Prospects of public private partnership (PPP) projects also remain clouded! The Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Direct Tax Code (DTC) could be expected sometime in the next 12 months. Other than that, the latest Budget did nothing to alleviate our worries about financial sector reforms remaining in the backburner.

02:47
 
The final rollback of stimulus doled out to the economy in 2008-09 was announced in the Union Budget 2012. The Finance Minister has stated that excise duty would be increased from 10% to 12%. What this means is that the manufacturing companies would be paying higher on the excise front. What this means for the common man is that the cost of manufactured items is set to go up. But isn't that what's already been happening? Due to increase in commodity prices, cost of manufactured items has been on the rise as they pass through the increase in costs to the customers. The increase in excise duty would just lead to higher costs.

But the buck does not end here. The Finance Minister has also decided to widen the service tax net. Only services in the negative list would be exempt from the service tax. Services that are exempt include school education. Good for that. And to add to this, the tax rate has been increased from 10% to 12%. The only relief that the common man has is the savings due to the change in income tax rate slabs. But even there the savings is paltry as tax slabs have not been radically revised.

03:27
 
Citing heavy gold imports as a major reason for the high current account deficit, the Finance Minister decided to double the import duty on gold from 2% to 4%. Increase in levy is likely to discourage imports and impact the jewellery demand in domestic markets. It may be noted that recently government had changed the duty structure on gold imports. The levy was now linked to the value rather than the quantum of bullion that was being imported. This had already led to an implicit rise in the duty on gold imports. And within a span of one month, the government has further proposed to increase the duty to 4%. Considering that India is the biggest importer of gold this would significantly impact the demand and may also give rise to illegal trafficking.

03:51
 
The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is set to dole out lower rate of interest going forward. A day ahead of the Budget, it slashed the return on statutory savings to 8.25% for the current fiscal. The rate was 9.5% last year. This means that in the present structure, the returns will also be lower than the 8.6% paid by the public provident fund (PPF) deposits, which is a popular voluntary savings scheme. While banks also offer relatively higher interest rates, where EPFO gains the upper hand is that the annual contribution and interest on the balance are tax free. One of the main reasons that EPFO has cut rates steeply was that it was saddled with a deficit. Thus, even with the slash in interest rates, it will still report a deficit of Rs 2.4 m. And with the chances of the government bailing them out being quite low, this move seems to be the only way out to trim its losses. This certainly does not spell good news for employees.

04:26
 
The Union Budget 2012-13 and the Finance Minister's speech occupied the nation for the past few hours. But the markets were not too impressed with what Mr Pranab Mukherjee had to offer. In reaction to a fairly lackluster Budget, the Indian stock markets have fallen further into the negative territory after opening trade on an upbeat note. At the time of writing, BSE Sensex was down by 173 points (1%). Red marks were seen across all sectoral indices, except for FMCG stocks. Asian stock markets presented a mixed picture with China (up by 1.3%) being the top gainer, while other markets faced selling pressure.

04:46  Today's Investing Mantra
"Charlie and I are competent to make judgments on certain things, and not other things. We try to focus on what we can understand, which is a reasonable amount." - Warren Buffett

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    9 Responses to "A Budget as meek as it could be!"

    Albert

    Mar 19, 2012

    Our FM is using a precedence set in the 70's to justify retroactive change in tax laws. Are we still living in the 70's? He is hell bent on changing the rules of the games (retroactively) because the govt lost the match against Vodafone. Convenient, isn't it? Next time we lose a cricket match, let the BCCI use its heft to change the rules... something like... whoever scored less runs be declared the winner. Mr. FM, whose initials are PM, is doing all this to fight what he calls "fiscal chaos." So, who created this fiscal chaos to start with? The UPA, of course, with its populist schemes and subsidies to keep itself in power. Now Mr. FM is creating chaos is the entire country by continuing to rob Peter to pay Paul. How long can this continue? Is this what a true democracy looks like? No, this is nothing by dictatorship by the masses. A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. And so the great Indian story continues... its business as usual... taxing the middle class to death who gets absolutely nothing in return and has to fend for itself for simple things like water, electricity, education and basic health care. It's time for this govt to be voted out of office.
    I say remove all subsidies, cancel all populist schemes, reduce the size of govt by half, get rid of the 50% tax on petrol and abolish all income taxes.

    Like 

    SUDHAKAR

    Mar 17, 2012

    When the Rail Budget & This one are passed, and also diesel deregulation takes effect,we will slide into double digit inflation, once again. That leaves no room for RBI to reduce interest rates and low growth is the consequence. Pretty sure -We will be back to the days of persistent stagflation.

    Like 

    Jaykumar

    Mar 17, 2012

    Today's politicians dont have the interest of the country at heart. They survive by doling out subsidies to the vote banks to remain in power. The snow ball effect of this policy will be dangerous in years to come. By that time we will miss the bus to be a prosperous nation. The budget is insipid with no concrete steps towards economic reforms, which is the need of the hour.

    Like 

    Abhishek Jain

    Mar 16, 2012

    Union govt is eyeing 2014 elections. That's why Fin. min. has deferred all goodies for 2013. They know that public only remembers recent happenings, they'll make general public happy in 2013 to garner votes.

    Like 

    Sundaravaradan S

    Mar 16, 2012

    Hi,

    Whatever comments given are true and good; but only talks about the -ve aspects of the Budget, only!

    IF the Budget was spelling Good Measures, then, we would be saying the key is in IMPLEMENTATION! true!

    I only hope, Pranab is clever and did not want controversies on Budget day, just like Infosys, it PERFORMS better than promised!

    Budget should become a boring excercise and forgotten, as it is! The USEFUL Bills should be IMPLEMENTED when the Allies of Govt are sleeping!!

    Hoping for the better times!

    Like 

    Suresh Kumar

    Mar 16, 2012

    This budget is anti-rich, anti-poor but pro-politicians. Anti-rich as 2% additional duties would make consumer goods expensive, anti-poor as inflation will remain in double digits due to high fiscal deficit, pro-politicians as they could take the credit for not hiking diesel prices but indirectly inflating prices of everything.
    Its high time, a WHITE paper is published on BLACK money, so that fiscal deficit and inflation are brought down.

    Like 

    Ashish Pandey

    Mar 16, 2012

    seems govt has decided to play safe keeping in sight parliamentary election after facing rejection in recent assembly elections. but they forget that they are turned down only because of this indecisive approach and meek stand on many issues of national importance. where they are suppose to take firm stand they kept on avoiding decision making. I've never felt so directionless before as a citizen. they are not even doing politics, rather they are engaged in detrimental polytricks.

    Like 

    Arora

    Mar 16, 2012

    A budget where very little is given and a very large is taken out

    Like 

    anupam garg

    Mar 16, 2012

    very informative newsletter giving brief, yet broad outlook on the budget components...

    Like 
      
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