If India's GDP is galloping, why are people worse off? - The 5 Minute WrapUp by Equitymaster
Investing in India - 5 Minute WrapUp by Equitymaster
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If India's GDP is galloping, why are people worse off? 

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In this issue:
» Developed world faces 'wall of maturing debt'
» Has silver risen too much, too soon?
» SBI finally brings curtains on teaser home loans
» India should start agri exports again, feels Pawar
» ...and more!


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00:00
 
A leading daily pointed out how India has ranked a poor 71st in a well-being index. Furthermore, as per the same survey, 64% of its denizens were still believed to be struggling.

Now, isn't it ironic that a country whose economic growth has been a toast of the world, still has so many of its citizens struggling. Agreed that a survey made up of a small sample size shouldn't be taken so seriously. But one look around us and we will be forced to believe that the survey's conclusion could perhaps be valid. If India is indeed growing, it is certainly not fully showing up in the quality of life most of its people are leading.

We have managed to zero in on two major culprits responsible for this apparent dichotomy. One goes by the name of the rich-poor divide and second moves around as inflation in the price of basic necessities. Let us tackle the second one first. It bothers us immensely that while mobile phones have gone on to become cheap year after year; a basic necessity such as food has seen its prices shoot through the roof. And this is one of the major reasons for growing discontent we believe.

A second or a third mobile phone may have limited utility but a little bit of extra food on the table goes a long way towards making people feel more satisfied. So while the country brags about how it unleashed the mobile revolution bringing about tremendous boost to productivity and growth, majority of the country's citizens are struggling to come to speed with rising food prices.

As for the rich poor divide, the less said the better. Issues like land grabs and corruption at all levels are making only a select few rich at the expense of the vast majority. And with speculation in areas like real estate rampant, we may be veering towards creating an asset based economy rather than the one that is based on real economic activities. The US is a prime example of what happens when one creates an asset based economy. The rich poor divide increases sharply and we get violent booms and busts.

Thus, unless the Government takes drastic measures to tackle these issues, GDP growth in even double digits may not be able to make most of its citizens well-off!

Do you feel your wellbeing has increased in line with country's GDP growth? Share your views with us or comment on our facebook page.

01:23  Chart of the day
 
We talked about the growing disparity between rich and poor in India. However, when it comes to the same, even the land of opportunity and the biggest economy in the world does not quite cover itself with glory. We are indeed talking about the US. As today's chart of the day shows, the rich and poor divide in the country has never been as wide as it has been recently. The wealth of the wealthiest 1% in the US was a whopping 225 times more than a typical US household as recently as 2009. Little wonder, the average American is struggling to make ends meet while the richie rich continue to roll in wealth and enjoy the Government's patronage.

Source: EPI analysis of survey of consumer finances and flow of funds data

01:58
 
The IMF has compiled some really upsetting numbers. It has added up the sovereign debt requirements of the developed economies over the next year. The number stands at a staggering 25% of the total combined GDP. To put it simply, if you add up the maturing and new sovereign debt issuances of developed economies, it is going to be about a quarter of their expected combined GDP.

And mind you, this is just the sovereign debt that we are talking about. There's a lot more. As per a leading news agency, the world's banks are going to face a US$ 3.6 trillion "wall of maturing debt" in the next two years.

This will lead to a situation where banks and governments will be scrambling for funding resources. But who is going to fund these western economies? Japan is not at all in a position to do that, especially after the recent disasters. China is facing serious issues at home and is beginning to show signs of a slowdown. So the funds seem to be quite scarce.

Given such circumstances, we'll witness many bank and sovereign bankruptcies in the coming times. So forget all the noise about 'global economic recovery'. The global crisis is still very much here and about to intensify.

02:41
 
With the exit of ex-SBI Chief Mr O.P. Bhatt, the discounted home loan scheme pioneered by him is also on its way out. The popular product changed the landscape of home loans in India. Some of the largest players in this retail product lost plenty of their market share to the PSU behemoth. And pricing on this below PLR- loan even determined the pricing of some other retail products like car loans. The regulator (RBI), however, had not minced words from the beginning with its disapproval on the product. The fact that the loan was priced below the minimum lending rate (PLR) for the initial few years irked the central bank. It believed that the scheme could lead to huge NPA problems for the sector if the rate sensitive borrowers are not able to service the loans at a later stage. However, with competition heating up, other banks and FIs including HDFC Ltd had no option but to emulate SBI.

Interestingly, the incumbent SBI chief Mr Chaudhuri calls the special 'teaser' loan scheme non compliant with the RBI guidelines. These accounted for more than 40% of total outstanding home loans in the bank's books at the end of December 2010. With SBI's exit from the 'teaser loan' pricing, the home loan rates in the Indian banking sector are clearly expected to remain firm.

03:26
 
Agriculture minister, Mr. Sharad Pawar, feels that it is about time for India to open up the export markets for food grains. He opines that in light of the positive expectations on the monsoon front and reserves of food grains built up from last year, it would be beneficial to export these grains in the international markets.

It is a good idea to export the 'excess' food grains. It would definitely help to add to the government's coffers. At the same time, it would probably not make that much sense to Mr. Pawar to just distribute the so called excess grain to the starving poor. Also, it would not make sense to actually wait and see how the monsoons pan out. After all, we are all only too aware of what happened to the cotton prices thanks to faulty forecasts and assumptions of the government. We really wonder if Mr. Pawar thought of these issues before making his suggestions.

03:59
 
Gold has caught the fancy of investors across the world ever since the global crisis unraveled, but silver has been on an absolute tear. As a result concerns have started emanating whether this run up is likely to turn into a bubble going forward. Silver's dream run has been justified uptil now in an environment where governments in the West have been printing money at the drop of a hat thereby undermining the value of their respective currencies. But the question here is whether silver reaching triple digits is a matter of concern or not. And according to Jim Rogers, it all depends on when it is likely to reach that mark. If silver, gold and all commodities will continue to go up in an orderly way for another ten years or so, then eventually, the prices will be very, very high. One is then likely to see silver reaching triple digits. But if this was to happen this year itself, then one would have to start thinking about selling this precious metal. After all, even though the worth of currencies is being questioned at present, the dollar has not yet collapsed and so a steep rise in silver in a short period is bound to have all the makings of a bubble, we believe.

04:44
 
Meanwhile, the Indian stock market built on its gains recorded yesterday and is currently trading strongly in the positive. Sensex was ruling higher by around 160 points at the time of writing this. Most other Asian markets also showed a positive trend today whereas European markets too have opened on a positive note.

04:55  Today's investing mantra
"Economists make predictions because they're asked, not because they know." - John K. Galbraith
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20 Responses to "If India's GDP is galloping, why are people worse off?"

Ramamurthy

May 2, 2011

May be the rich are growing richer but the poor is NOT getting poorer.for example my domestic help salaries bill was Rs 1000 per month three years back ;to day it is Rs 5000! the children of my domestic help are now in PUC.3 years earlier the very thought was laughable. I stay in Bangalore.

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Arvind Kumar

Apr 27, 2011

We have neither any proper plan nor the dedicated leaders to take any strategic decisions. Vested interest is everywhere. We are not focusing on the core of the problem, we are just trying to hide the negative face of the country by showing numbers. Numbers do not show the real figure. What we heed is a proper direction with dedicated effort.

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Ashish Shah

Apr 25, 2011

Never ever in India the worsening situtation of people of India can be controlled unless there is control on population & corruption ; the two main problems India is facing at present........

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Vishal

Apr 24, 2011

Excellent article, EQMaster team!

I have been pondering over the same lately. It is surprising that the Govt. tries to subsidize a lot of commodities for rural people to use, rather than enabling them to be able to buy those on their own... The badly managed logistics and food supplies, the lack of attention and incentives given to agriculture, etc. is leading to widening of this rich-poor divide that you speak about... It is important for the GoI to look at empowering the economically backward people with encouraging reforms and education. However, I doubt that will happen because of vested interests of state and local level politicians who all but want to lose control over their vote banks by educating and empowering them...

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Eric Pinto

Apr 22, 2011

Yet another flawed analysis !Which India are you talking about ? The babu's india ? The midddle class penpusher's India ?
I am a project manager in the construction industry. In the last two years, there has been an increasing shortage of labour. Why ? Our labour comes from the BIMARU states and now due to the combined effects of NREGA and local development this labour stays and does not migrate as much.And earnings are much better.
Please do better research before you feed us the wrong stories !
Eric Pinto

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Anil Seth

Apr 22, 2011

GDP figures are not the most accurate number to describe the wellness and the wellbeing of the people. The GINI coefficient is a more accurate representation of the satisfaction coefficient of the people of the country. quoted below is the concept and the rank of India in this measure.
THE GOVERNMENT MUST COMPUTE UPDATE AND POST THESE FIGURES FOR THE PUBLIC TO GIVE THE CITIZENS OF THIS COUNTRY A VIVID IDES OF WHERE THEY STAND AND COMPARE WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. GDP NUMBERS TELL ONLY HALF THE STORY, HENCE THE QUESTIONS IN THE MINDS . IF THE COUNTRY'S GDP IS GROWING WHY ARE WE STILL POOR ETC.


Distribution of family income - Gini index: 36.8 (2004)
37.8 (1997)
Rank: 79

Definition: This index measures the degree of inequality in the distribution of family income in a country. The index is calculated from the Lorenz curve, in which cumulative family income is plotted against the number of families arranged from the poorest to the richest. The index is the ratio of (a) the area between a country's Lorenz curve and the 45 degree helping line to (b) the entire triangular area under the 45 degree line. The more nearly equal a country's income distribution, the closer its Lorenz curve to the 45 degree line and the lower its Gini index, e.g., a Scandinavian country with an index of 25. The more unequal a country's income distribution, the farther its Lorenz curve from the 45 degree line and the higher its Gini index, e.g., a Sub-Saharan country with an index of 50. If income were distributed with perfect equality, the Lorenz curve would coincide with the 45 degree line and the index would be zero; if income were distributed with perfect inequality, the Lorenz curve would coincide with the horizontal axis and the right vertical axis and the index would be 100.

Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of March 11, 2010

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R KUMAR

Apr 22, 2011

IF ONE SINCERELY CALCULATES RATIO OF WEALTH OF WEALTHIEST INDIAN Vs ORDINARY INDIAN CITIZEN (AM ADMI) IT WILL BE A WHOPPING 10000 TIMES OR EVEN MORE. DISPARITY IN OUR SOCIETY IS VERY HIGH.

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Ganesh K.

Apr 21, 2011

Forget about GDP growth. If India wants prosperity do following. (1) Stop growing useless crops like Flowers. (2) Donot allow land to convert to NA from agricultural land.Farmers in the outskirts of big cities sell their major portion of land to Builders for a fortune. They Stop growimg food grains/fruits/vegetable & Retain only small plot where they grow flowers like roses,Tulip for export in green house.(3) Restrict the travell of people, like it used to be in Russia or china few years ago. This will stop wanderlust and make people stick to their land and produce. Only authorised people should be allowed to travel long distances more than 25 km. This will save fuel anf oil cost. (4) stop rampant manufacture of cars. Improve public transport. (5) Stop airconditioners, airconditioned malls and inoxes.waste of electricity. For summer use only fans. A.C. should not be allowed.(6) Stop commodity trading. This is main reason for price rise (7)No religious holidays,no valentine days only 4-5 national holidays. (8) Luxury goods to be taxed 10 times (9) What we require is Maotse Tung and not Gandhian like Anna Hazare. (10) Only FDI should be allowed. (11) Stop over emphasise on service sector ( and pampering of their employees). More focus on agriculture and manufacturing.(12) Capital punishment for corruption (13) Hum Do Humara Ek- family planning , only one child per couple.(14)Foetus sex determination should be dealt with capital punishment.(15) Religion,cast will be private matter. Not to be mentioned in any documents.(16) Abolish all reservations and descriminations.(17) Increse armed forces strength and technology. Do it and India will be prosperous.

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arjun runganadhan

Apr 21, 2011

There is nothing new in your comment about the Rich-Poor divide. If, in UP with a population of 190 million can see the equivalent of US$40 billion being siphoned off from the poor's share of the free food from Govt, imagine if all the looting from various land-grabs and the huge amount of black money being sent overseas, is it any wonder that there is a vast amount of resentment and unhappiness in India!
Perhaps, India should invite US Congressman Paul Ryan honourary citizenship in India -- he can make the rich even richer with his tax-cut plans!!
Please keep up the excellent reporting and commentaries!
Warm regards and kudos to all your editorial and reporting staff. Arjun.

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Kim Bhudia

Apr 21, 2011

The differnce between USA and India real estate is transparency. In Kutch Gujarat where I come from the land prices has tripled in last three years ,the real price on deeds is shown one tenth of the original price, this ideal opertunity for rich to hide their black money and I am sure this happening other places in India rspecially riral areas.

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