1991 to 2012: Has India come full circle?
In this issue:
» India's GDP growth at 9 year low
» This new development is likely to set gold soaring
» 2013 will be worse than 2012!
» The global monetary system is on the verge of breaking!
» ...and more!
----------------------------------- Learn at Home and Earn in the Market place -----------------------------------
We've initiated a new way to add to your income from the comfort of your home.
This Online Course will teach you how to analyse market trends... how to pick up winning trades...
how to create your own trading strategy so you can earn regular double-triple digit profits.
Thousands of our subscribers are already benefiting from this.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
00:00 |
||
Two decades have passed since then. And the ghosts of 1991 have come again to haunt us. Take the twin deficits during both these period. The fiscal deficit was at 5.39% of GDP in 1991-92. In 2011-12 it was at 6.9%. Similarly, the current account deficit was at 3% of GDP in 1991. The same stood tall at 4.3% in March 2012. Short term external debt has shot up from 10% of GDP in 1991 to 22% currently.
Of course, it would be an overstatement to liken the current scenario to the 1991 crisis. The Indian economy has indeed come a long way since then. Back in 1991, India had foreign exchange that wouldn't last beyond two weeks. With current reserves of about US$ 290 bn, the economy can meet its import requirements of about 7 months. India's domestic savings rate has gone up from 20% of GDP to 31.6% during this intervening period. Even Indian companies are in much better financial health today than in 1991.
But there are also several new challenges now that didn't exist back then. One very major difference is the state of the global economy. Back in 1991, the overall economic environment in the global arena was favourable. Major economies were growing at a brisk pace. They were in a position to positively impact India's growth prospects. That is not the case anymore. All major developed economies are reeling under the burden of high debt and dwindling growth. Moreover, in 1991 India's economy was largely closed. Today we are quite integrated with the global economy. This has tremendously increased our vulnerability to external shocks.
It is important to understand that an interdependent global economy creates its own opportunities and challenges. Policymakers need to reciprocate effectively in a timely manner to the demands of the changing times. The slew of external shocks over the last couple of years has caught Indian policymakers unawares. The sad truth is that the Indian political establishment is accustomed to inaction. Unless, of course, it is forced to the brink of absolute disaster.
Do you think India is heading towards a 1991-like crisis? Share your comments with us or post your views on our Facebook page / Google+ page.
01:20 |
Chart of the day | |
Data source: The Economic Times |
01:40 |
||
02:10 |
||
As per Rogers, slowdowns have happened every four to six years. And since the last one happened in 2008, we could well be witnessing another one in either 2013 or 2014. This is not all. Since the debt is so staggeringly high right now, the coming recession would be far worse than the one in 2002 or 2008 for that matter.
We can't help but agree with Rogers. Although the timing cannot be predicted with certainty, we do believe a big slowdown could be staring us in the face. And if Governments continue to intervene by printing more money, it will only make matters worse and set us up for an even bigger catastrophe down the line. We just hope Governments leave the market forces alone.
02:50 |
||
03:30 |
||
03:50 |
||
But the country's erstwhile strengths have now become its major weaknesses. Exports currently form over 40% of its GDP. In Japan this amounts to 20% and just 13% in the US. Austerity or default by the country's weak neighbours could force many European economies into a prolonged recession. German exports will thus be affected as Europe forms about 60% of its market. A Greek default by itself would result in direct losses to Germany of about £ 90 bn. These potential losses would increase rapidly as more countries default or leave the eurozone. Germany's debt levels are also high, at about 81% of GDP. This is expected to remain above 60% for many years, and slowing GDP growth will not help matters much. With even the king-pin of the Euro zone in hot soup, we don't have much hope for the rest of the region.
04:30 |
||
04:50 |
Today's investing mantra |
Today's Premium Edition.
Recent Articles
- All Good Things Come to an End... April 8, 2020
- Why your favourite e-letter won't reach you every week day.
- A Safe Stock to Lockdown Now April 2, 2020
- The market crashc has made strong, established brands attractive. Here's a stock to make the most of this opportunity...
- Sorry Warren Buffett, I'm Following This Man Instead of You in 2020 March 30, 2020
- This man warned of an impending market correction while everyone else was celebrating the renewed optimism in early 2020...
- China Had Its Brawn. It's Time for India's Brain March 23, 2020
- The post coronavirus economic boom won't be led by China.
Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "1991 to 2012: Has India come full circle?". Click here!
11 Responses to "1991 to 2012: Has India come full circle?"
Carlos de Souza
Jun 1, 2012You guys claim to be investment advisors/experts. Yet you swing from one extreme to the other like novice investors. However, your extreme pessimism suits me as I am looking for low prices to invest. Keep up the scare mongering, please :-)