How bad would US downgrade be for India?
In this issue:
» India Inc defers overseas borrowing programs
» FM still optimistic about India's growth
» So no need for economic stimulus for India
» Is it doomsday for IT stocks?
» ...and more!--------------------------- WebSummit On Global Crisis With Ajit Dayal --------------------------
Later this month we will be recording a webinar with Ajit to get his views on the global crisis and where he sees opportunities to invest money.
If you have any questions for Ajit, just write in to us.
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We are not exactly delinked from the US. It is a major client for nearly all of the exporters. Therefore any recession or slowdown in demand from US would impact the earnings of the export focused firms. To add to this, the domestic demand environment has slowed down as well. This was on account of the monetary tightening measures adopted by RBI to control inflation. Therefore, the domestic demand may not be able to offset the slowdown in demand from overseas. This spells trouble for Indian firms.
But is this problem new? US has been in a crisis since 2007 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. In reality, the crisis started when the banks decided to give loans to people who did not qualify for it.. But then that's history. Nonetheless, the fact is that US has been in crisis for a while now. The recent downgrade is just finally accepting the fact that US is in crisis. The Indian exporters have already learned to live and work around with clients who have tightened their purse strings. They have learnt how to negotiate with them. They have also learned how the crisis and changes in regulatory environment can be used to get better and more work from the clients.
Therefore, the recent selloff does not spell trouble for India. These risks could already be accounted for in the stocks. True there may be more crashes to come due to global volatility. But these should be treated as an opportunity. An opportunity to pick up fundamentally sound companies. The market crash is giving us an opportunity to get these stocks at cheaper valuations.
Do you think India would be affected in a major way by the US debt downgrade? Share your comments with us or post your views on our Facebook page.
01:15 | Chart of the day | |
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Addressing the captains of Indian industry at the recent conference, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee assured that India was capable of achieving high growth rates despite the ongoing external shocks. We are of the view that though the panic may squeeze liquidity from the markets as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) take flight; the debt crisis in the developed world does not significantly alter the fundamentals of our long term domestic growth story. Nonetheless, we must not forget that we have our own internal monsters such as inflation and corruption to deal with. Barring these challenges, India is poised to lead the global economy along with the other emerging economies.
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Also, it is quite possible that the Indian central bank, easily one of the most hawkish in the world, stops its interest rate hiking exercise. This can happen if global commodity prices fall and consequently, inflation in India cools down. Hence, there is a chance here that even without the Government giving a stimulus shot, the economy could be boosted on account of the RBI's measures.
However, it would be wrong to completely rule out fiscal stimulus from the Government. It could well become a possibility if the developed world plunges into a recession worse than imagined. Here, the Indian Government may have to step in to pick up the slack on account of severe slowdown in net capital inflows and trade balance. For the time being though, it is a wait and watch approach by the Government.
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In response to the current flow of bad news coming from the United States, IT stocks felt a bulk of the selling pressure last week, tanking over 6%. In initial trade on Monday, the BSE-IT index was down almost 5%. But is this sell-off justified? Firms like Cognizant and TCS are boasting of a robust pipeline, even in an uncertain macro environment. Only Infosys seems to be cautious about the future. However, if global disasters are averted, and the world economy keeps on chugging along, IT stocks may see a relief-rally. This is because these stocks currently have a lot of negative sentiment about slowing demand priced in.
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That is not all. S&P gave Lehman Brothers, whose collapse triggered a global panic, an A rating right up to the month of its demise. And refused to accept blame even after Lehman collapsed. Indeed, one does not deny the fact that the US is in a bad shape. Its mounting debt burden at some time or the other was bound to blow up in its face. The question is whether S&P's has the moral right to downgrade US debt and be taken seriously when its tainted reputation has been exposed to the world.
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04:55 | Today's investing mantra |
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13 Responses to "How bad would US downgrade be for India?"
Chetan Mehta
Aug 13, 2011In my view, the downgrade from AAA to AA+ does not have any impact on India. What impacts us is the hit to market sentiment and the domino effect of the downgrade on US institutions. Our banks and corporations are in some way or the other intertwined with the US banks and corporations. Any downgrade of these institutions is bound to affect us.
Chetan Mehta - Market Research And Investment
singaraju
Aug 13, 2011Just ignoring short term volatility and with eyes fixed on the big picture shaping up: US & Europe slowdown = Lower commodities & crude = Low inflation & int rate = Lower input costs = Higher profitability for Indian cos = More enticing inv opp = Higher inflows from FIIs, DIIs and retail = _______????
krishash
Aug 9, 2011One question which remains unanswered is the current exchange rates of the INR and Yuan against the USD. Why is it that the Indian Rupee is loosing against the American Dollar? You would expect it to gain.
The Chinese Yuan remains stagnant at 6.45 to a USD and takes a double whammy. One on account of what US Govt owes it, and the second is the QEP dilutions. But it still marches ahead and may end up with a high GDP unlike the Indian Economy which is slowing down.
anil wanchoo
Aug 9, 2011Certainly ,downgrading of USM does not bid well for developing economies like India who are getting bulk of
their overseas business from US.The slow down in US economy is sure to hit the Indian IT industry.
MANMEET SINGH
Aug 9, 2011RESPECTED SIR,
The US downgrade would be bad for India because their is some company like IT Sector, BPO AND KPO SECTOR would be effected by the us downgrade . In the world 15 out of 10 giant company or most profitable company are coming for amerric
S.K.Damani
Aug 8, 2011Well, India is definetly going to be effected by the down grade of US. I would not claim to be very intelligent person, but with my 20 yrs. of experience (and reading J Mulraj's articles since they used to appear in TOI every Monday during my college days of 1975) I have to ask a very "gauty" (villager's) question. In 2008 the "saukar" (Bank's) failed and the "Raja" (US Govt.) bailed him out. BUT NOW THAT THE RAJA HIMSELF IS DOWNGRADED, WHO IS GOING TO BAIL HIM OUT ???????????.
Therefore how can we say that the present situation is not worse than 2008 ???
Thanks
Damani
Shyam Samant
Aug 8, 2011"..But these should be treated as an opportunity. An opportunity to pick up fundamentally sound companies..."
..Provided you have money to buy.....By the way when did you last advised your clients to purge out and be ready for such OPPORTUNITY?"
SAMRAT MATHUR
Aug 19, 2011Indeed the situation is very precariously poised.I think foriegn money is bound to come in India.The fundamentals of our companies are very strong.We will be able to hold on to our basics and stay afloat.US is definatly the biggest client as far as EXPORTS are concerned but our domestic consumption story will play a major role in abating a crisis.
We will have to focus on our cost and dont let our quality compromise at any point of time.
We need to take bold decissions in the face of adversity.
Our nature to change according to the circumstances we are in will make us survive in these times as well.