Is fondness for gold hindering India's growth?

Sep 5, 2011

In this issue:
» At what level does debt become dangerous?
» Jim Rogers lessons for investing in today's world
» India's inflation amongst most severe in Asia
» Despite glum in real estate, house prices remain firm
» ...and more!

---------------------------------------------- Video on Demand ----------------------------------------------

Our most recent WebSummit - Stock Market: Where to from here - is now available on demand!

It will be available only for the next few days... So we recommend you view this Free Video right away!

Click here to View the video now...

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

00:00
 
Our headline for the day may have baffled you a bit; for how in the world can our fondness for gold be affecting our economic growth. Your confusion is very much valid since we seldom hear about gold consumption having any implication on economic growth.

There has been so much hoopla about gold and other precious metals ever since the global financial crisis erupted. Ever since, the attractiveness of the yellow metal has grown in reciprocation to the chaos and crisis in the global economy. With economies slowing down, debt crises raging in the developed world and their central banks on a money printing binge, gold prices have happily climbed to record levels. But this doesn't seem to have deterred Indian investors. At a time when stock markets are seeming uncertain and paper money losing its worth, investors are steadily flocking into gold. As per World Gold Council, India's gold imports rose 60% year-on-year (YoY) during the quarter ended June 2011.

As per a leading daily, gold is now our second biggest import, behind only crude oil. The daily further adds that when one buys gold, it either sits quietly in our lockers or becomes jewellery. In both the cases, money gets locked since gold is not a productive asset. India's household savings have shifted away from productive financial assets, declining from 12.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009-10 to 9.7% in 2010-11. Gold imports have gone up nearly 50 basis points (half a percentage point) of the GDP in the last three years. This means that more and more resources are getting locked up in an asset that does not help produce anything. Effectively, it hinders economic growth to a certain extent. The other problem is that India heavily depends on gold imports as we don't produce much of it in our own economy. As a result, it adds to our current account deficit.

Is the above mentioned view correct? We don't quite think so. According to us, there can be no objective definition of what is productive and what is not. And gold may not be able to produce anything but it sure can be exchanged for any good or service in this universe. Furthermore, the rate at which currencies are being printed, there is a strong possibility that gold will maintain its real value and buy more goods and services down the line than paper money. As far as resources getting locked up are concerned, it should also be noted that by way of gold loans, a trend that is catching up fast, a lot of resources are also being used up.

Do you think the argument that excess investment in gold hinders India's economic growth correct? Share comments with us or post your views on our Facebook page.

01:21
 Chart of the day
 
Debt is dangerous! Does anyone have second thoughts about that? Probably not! Especially after the crisis that even the richest nations in the world have been subjected to on account of over leveraging. But can anyone put a finger on what exactly is the tipping point of a debt crisis? We came across an article in The Telegraph that attempted to do just that. 80 to 100% of GDP for governments, 90% of GDP for companies and 85% of GDP for households can be the debt warning signal claims the article. For companies and households, the GDP can be construed as the annual income levels.

That the rich nations' debt levels have touched obscene numbers can be judged easily based on these benchmarks. The combined debt of the developed nations rose from 165% of GDP 30 years ago to 310% in 2010. This is 3 times the acceptable level! As today's chart of the day shows, Japan and Portugal have combined household, corporate and government debt levels of 456% and 363% of GDP respectively. In fact, the economies did not see such high levels of debt even during the wars. Add to that the facts that demographic atrophy and aging costs will make the scenario even nastier. However, it is not enough to know that such high debt levels are dangerous. The wrong notion that debtors can keep borrowing as long as creditors are willing to lend needs to be shed immediately. If not, we may end up with too many cases like the US and China where neither has benefitted from the economic excesses.

Data source: The Telegraph

02:14
 
It always feels great to hear Jim Rogers speak. In our books, he has one of the best insights on the big, complex world of finance. After all, not all investors are able to multiply their money by a mindboggling 43 times in a short span of 10 years. To be able to do so, one really needs to be a special talent. And Rogers does qualify this test with flying colours we believe. So what's on Jim Rogers' mind these days? A finance portal called The Daily Crux set out to find just this in a lengthy interview with the commodities guru. Rogers is of the opinion that the US seems to have entered what he calls a state of decline and he sees very few signs that can turn things around permanently. Therefore, he is urging everyone to learn about investing outside of the US. As far as other investment opportunities are concerned, he has opined that the current time is like the 1970s. And hence, one is more likely to make money in real assets rather than stocks.

He also had a view or two on career planning. As per him, finance is going to be a terrible place to pursue career-wise in the developed world. Instead, one could do well if one is a producer of real goods. This has happened repeatedly throughout history, believes Rogers. We have had long periods where financial types were the kingpins followed by periods where real goods were the kingpins. It is once again reversing now in favour of the latter. Some very good food for thought here we think.

02:49
 
Inflation in India has been high for quite some time now with the main culprit being rising food prices. And despite Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) attempts to tone it down through rate hikes, it has still not come within the comfort levels of the central bank. What is more, Mr Richard Iley, Chief Economist, Asia, BNP Paribas opines that inflation in India is different from that of its Asian peers and has been the most acute for several years now. This is because of increasingly structural food price issues and rising demand for proteins and foodgrains as a result of higher disposable incomes. And food being a significant part of the wholesale price index (WPI), rise in food prices has fueled overall inflation as well. Further, according to Mr Iley, food prices in India do not have a strong correlation with global food prices the way China does. Prices here are determined more by domestic factors. As far as rate hikes are concerned, Mr Iley believes that the RBI has reached the peak of the cycle. But even if it chooses not to raise rates further, it will be reluctant to loosen monetary policies too. This means that in a high interest rate environment, India's GDP growth could witness some slowdown in the medium term at least.

03:48
 
Real estate players seem to have iron nerves. Despite weak macro-economic environment and gloom in the real estate sector, housing prices continue to remain firm across India. According to a survey by the National Housing Bank, house prices have displayed a rising trend in 12 Indian cities in the April-June quarter of 2011. While metro cities of Delhi, Chennai and Hyderabad have witnessed double-digit price appreciation, Mumbai and Bangalore have shown an increase of low single-digit. However, is this demand-driven price appreciation? It does not appear so as buyers' sentiments remain weak. RBI has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2010 to tame inflation. The sharp increase in borrowing costs and high property prices have kept buyers on the sidelines. The double whammy of plunging sales and rising construction costs is taking its toll on the profitability of real estate majors who already are weighing under heavy debt and interest costs. Whether real estate companies reduce property prices ahead of the festive season is something that remains to be seen. But one thing is for sure, the current rise in housing prices is not sustainable, particularly because the demand-supply economics is not favorable to developers at the current levels.

04:30
 
In the meanwhile, Indian stock markets have been trading in the negative territory today. At the time of writing, the benchmark BSE Sensex was down by 140 points (0.8%). IT and oil & gas stocks were the top losers while consumer durables and auto stocks were trading firm. Barring Indonesia, red marks were seen across Asian stock markets. Europe, too, opened the trade in the red.

04:50
 Today's investing mantra
"I will be talking about pricing stocks, but I will not be talking about predicting their course of action next month or next year. Valuing is not the same as predicting." - Warren Buffett

Today's Premium Edition.

Recent Articles

All Good Things Come to an End... April 8, 2020
Why your favourite e-letter won't reach you every week day.
A Safe Stock to Lockdown Now April 2, 2020
The market crashc has made strong, established brands attractive. Here's a stock to make the most of this opportunity...
Sorry Warren Buffett, I'm Following This Man Instead of You in 2020 March 30, 2020
This man warned of an impending market correction while everyone else was celebrating the renewed optimism in early 2020...
China Had Its Brawn. It's Time for India's Brain March 23, 2020
The post coronavirus economic boom won't be led by China.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Is fondness for gold hindering India's growth?". Click here!

22 Responses to "Is fondness for gold hindering India's growth?"

mohan

Sep 5, 2011

What do these peoplewant? Channel the investments into stocks / companies / what else? If only we look at what happened in the last 3 years - most of the portfolio gains were pocketed as fees by these vultures. I dont think there is a better plance than gold, even if it is not productive it has appreciated by more than 15 % in a year. How many of the other investments would have atleast given u back the prinicipal, let alone any growth?

Like 

bitu

Sep 5, 2011

Yes it's.

Like 

K Patel

Sep 5, 2011

What productive investment? With these corrupt government
people don't trust anyone. Gold is the onlyway they can save it from corrupt people. By investing in Stock do you think it increasing productivity? Think again. It makes lavish living for people like Ambani brothers and Mayavati fetch jet for sandals. These people are the one who forgets their roots and root cause of Bharat's unfortunate people.

Like 

Vinay Binani

Sep 5, 2011

I am shocked by the sheer stupidity of the comment. Does the author mean that all the central banks of the world are fools because they are holding gold. In fact by investing in gold Indian households are cementing the foundation of economy.

Like 

Chandrahas Kant Choudhary

Sep 5, 2011

When we convert the chash into non moovable property then its appreciation and depriciation is affected less than the chash investment hence the chances of appreciation is slightly less in gold or immovables and same in depreciation. So keeping your money in circulation in the market is better as a long term investor for ourselves and for our country economics and this is a patriotic act.

Like 

Sonia

Sep 5, 2011

Even if we assume there will be no gold bubble, and the price of gold will increase in future, gold craze is still hurting the economy - because, we can't wait 5-10 years to realize the economic worth of the gold. We need roads NOW, we need power plants NOW, we need schools and hospitals NOW. 5 years later will be too late, and we would have missed the bus. Unfortunately, there seems to be no sense of urgency in this country.

Like 

vandana

Sep 5, 2011

Answer to following question may clear the doubt.

Does the world have the market to absorb investment in econonic activity if all indians sold their gold and invest in economic productive activity? I think the economic market will crash due to excess supply. Gold are our reserves and be sold only when time to sell reserves comes.

Like 

Manoj K Mondal

Sep 5, 2011

The point is well taken. Here are some points to the contrary. Unlike petrol - which is imported on compulsion, gold is imported only to meet demand for investment besides domestic consumption. A large part of this gold (as also family jewels) is used to secure loan, the size of which is ballooning, both because of aggressive securitization and owing to increase in value of gold. Loan-money in turn moves into the active economy. Gold creates jobs, business opportunities, export revenues (therefore looking at only the dollar value of import may give a lopsided view), government revenues, and also fuels derivative markets. Last but not of the least importance, increasing gold price makes us Indian richer by the day; when any one of us books profit, a more solvent Indian is born at nobody’s cost, which augers well for the economy. Therefore, GOLD is creating value and solvency to the nation, but with the caveat that the declining cycle may be as painful as the price-rise cycle is making us happy.

Like 

Shashank

Sep 5, 2011

The case for financial savings is made because financial savings can be invested in creation/up-gradation of productive assets in the economy, thereby giving economic growth a sustainable boost.

When savings are kept under the pillow, they cannot be invested and hence are 'lost' to the economy.

When I save and buy gold from someone within the country, I exchange my savings for gold. The seller may spend some (boost GDP through multiplier as well) and save some. If his savings enter the financial system, it can be used to invest.

But if the country imports gold, capital leaves the country and a shiny yellow metal enters the country. The capital that left the country is no longer available for making investments. Instead we have a shiny yellow metal, that feels good to hold and look at, but it sits in our vaults doing nothing and contributes nothing to productive activity.

Hence the anguish over rising gold imports. (without regard to future prices)

However, looking at the numbers, an increase in 0.5% of GDP (from 1.5 to 2) over 5 years is an average (simplified) of 0.1% of GDP per year increase. Out of our total savings of 30-35% of GDP, 0.1% or even 0.5% accounts for very little and is unlikely to have any significant direct impact on the economy.

Coming to your argument: We can well define what is productive. Anything that makes more or helps in increasing productivity is a productive asset. Gold that sits in a vault produces nothing and neither does it help in producing anything. It sure might retain its purchasing power and might be good for an individual entity, but not for the country as a whole.

Gold loan is an interesting case. You borrow against your gold holding and start a business, hire people, create jobs, etc. The loan is used for productive purpose. But if you notice, the loan made available against gold comes out of the pool of domestic savings, meaning another investment gets 'crowded out' by the gold loan leading to (maybe) no net benefit to the country.

Like 

Chandrasekar

Sep 5, 2011

This gold is purchased out of earning,except in case of Bloody Netas. Further it goes into an Industry called Mining and Bullion Trade, which employs millions of workers as Goldsmith, sales staff,miners etc. To clear any doubts I am a Finace Professional, so I have no direct interest. The thing is Govt has to look at ways of leveraging this assets by offering secured Loans.

Like 
<<Prev    Next>>
Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Is fondness for gold hindering India's growth?". Click here!