Is India the next Greece? 

(Sep 17, 2012)

Not a single political party is concerned about the well being of our country and in turn countrymen. They see only their political interest and most of them have become a tool for regional imbalances too. What Mr. Puri has suggested, if followed in letter and spirit, India will undoubtedly become an economic super-power in the continent.

We should remember that Spain, Portugal and Italy closely follow Greece in macroeconomic crises. India is far better than these countries right now. This may be short lived but to say India is the next Greece is stretching it a bit.
I am still hopeful that the crises of the Eurozone will be tackled in a robust manner. Strong pointers in this direction are the proposed control and oversight of Banks and proposed fiscal consolidation norms across the Eurozone. These will kick in sooner than we think.
When Eurozone stabilises, India will be a frontrunner in real growth acceleration.
The US too is addressing the problem of employment generation through QEs. This too is good news. Dollar being the reserve currency, the value of the dollar relative to other currencies may not fall too fast, despite the fact that any significant reduction of fiscal deficit by US government will take eight to ten years. This relatively stable value of the Dollar, coupled with increased US employment generation and slow but steady fiscal consolidation will help India because India's traditional exports to US will not be displaced by job growth in the US. The consumption oriented growth trajectory of the US will continue to give market access to India in an equitable manner. That is, if India too gives access to US trade, the natural and organic two way growth potential will be a win-win game for both the countries. It would be stupid to conclude that the Indian market would be swamped by US trade. There are so many other players, local and foreign, in the market for this to happen. The Indian entrepreneur too is second to none in the world. Anyone setting shop in India will be doing a costly mistake if he does not know how to utilise local resources and local entrepreneurship.
The bold policy initiative by India in permitting foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail and in the aviation sector will certainly attract US investments, among others. This will be a durable long term growth component for India. Enough study of the history of foreign investments world over has been done for India to avoid the pitfalls in FDI and roll out a win-win model of trade with the larger economies. Barring outright stupid decisions, it is highly unlikely that Indian economy will not benefit through FDIs in the areas mentioned above.
This makes India a very unlikely candidate to follow Greece.
India's look east policy too will gather momentum. The odds are in favour of India playing a more active role in ASEAN. Trade with the ASEAN countries is bound to pick up.
SAARC too is picking up in volume of business traded. There is no going back on this.
China recognises India as a partner in growth. The Chinese have always invested in shrewd, hard-nosed economics and trade, untramelled by their ideology. This will continue to auger well for the world at large and for India in particular. There are practical reasons to believe that the dollar reserves of China will be increasingly used for equitable economic growth of the rest of the world. India is well poised to capitalise on this. Hawkish and militaristic Chinese view of the world is likely to change sooner than later. This is because humanity is on the cusp of a kind of togetherness we have never before witnessed thanks to the marvels of technology. Common denominators of collective existence and multiculturalism across the world may perhaps compel China to open up and become a vibrant part of the making of the global human being.
India and China will grow together as economic powerhouses in Asia.
Rating agencies have to follow their rating Dharma. They cannot be asked to factor in bullish or bearish moods of the market. They have to analyse large volume of data by applying accepted econometric and other methods. Therefore there is no point in crying foul when they lower the ratings. India's ratings by these agencies, though important, are by no means a ready reckoner for what the country's potential for growth is, which is truly huge by any standard. How soon this potential translates into real growth depends on India's resolve to get its act together.
Multiparty democracy as it is in India may appear to be a drag on economic development. But then, those in a tearing hurry to improve economic development have been known to be insensitive to the human and physical environment they operate in, to the long term detriment of that development itself. Maybe, the dynamics of a democratic polity is a necessary self-corrective component of the whole process of growth and development. That said, politicians in India are badly in need of a makeover of mindset. Corruption and cronyism is definitely out. That chapter of politics is in the hospice on just morphine. The sooner the political elite consisting of the politician, the bureaucrat and, the businessman see this reality the better for them. A New India has arisen. If the political elite continue to pooh-pooh this reality New India will dump them in the dustbins of history unceremoniously.

I agree that there is a real danger of India becoming the next
Greece.I hope it does not happen because,if it does there will be total anarchy and lawlessness.It is up to the people
to become really vocal and warn the cental and state Goverments that they will have to face the wrath of the electorate if they do not take steps to prevent our country from suffering the same fate as Greece.

this comment is without any basis, seems rubbish

i agree with puri`s observation.perhaps he has (intentionally)side tracked the issue of mammoth corruption because of his position.india will soon meet greece`s fate and in course soon meet doomsday.only almighty`s help will be able to set it right.alas! by that time lot of waters will have flown through the ganga.indian should be made well informed of`occupy wall street`movement which one day shatter edifice of india`s governance.

Mr. Puri has his head on his shoulders.The news in todays papers is anything but heartening.Mamta Banerjee is not fit to be a leader of the party. She messed the rail Budject and set back the Rlys. of funds badly needed by them. The other block head is Jayalalitha.To say that all trhese people oppose FDI in malls, is like having blinkers. Are malls not existin? Have any kirana shops closed? Are people not aware that these shops give them A/Cs and they can order on the phone? They also give them home delivery. Are these jokers not aware of all this?They arebent on holding the Country to ransom, so that thsy can get elected soon, and people Like Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley are all hankering to occupy the Chairs vaccated by the incompetent men, and the silent P.M., who was an economist par excellence, but has forgotten all economics after occupying the Chair, by playing footsy with the idiots surrounding him. How long will we have to suffer uncertainty,and fear of what the morrow will hold?Unless the silent P.M. for once opens his mouth, and endorses what his Finance Minister proposes, we are doomed to poverty.Ferns

I sincerely recommend that you do a little more research before giving such quotes. It undermines your credibility. Also the media really really needs to have some restraint before publishing such trash.

THE POSSIBILITY OF INDIA BECOMING NEXT GREECE IN THE LONG RUN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALTOGETHER. THE FISCAL DEFICIT
IS GETTING OUT OF CONTROL AND INFLATION HAS ALREADY CROSSED DANGER MARK. WE CAN NOT SURVIVE MERELY ON THE STRENGTH OF OUR HIGH RATE OF SAVINGS AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION. THE LEAKAGES IN GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE IS A CAUSE FOR CONCERN

YES SIR. NO DOUBT ON THAT IF WE HAVE ANOTHER QUARTER OF THE DISGRACE THAT THIS SO CALLED DEMOCRACY IS... EVERY PARTY WITHOUT EXCEPTION HAS ONLY ONE AGENDA- NO NO & NO. LIKE IN GOVT ORGS JUST DONT DO ANYTYHING. THAT ENSURES IN A MYOPIC INDIAN WAY THAT YOU DID NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKES.!!!!! IF YOU DONT MAKE MISTAKES (KNOWN TO PUBLIC) THEN YOU WILL GET PROMOTED. TO HEAD A GOVT ORG: BE A RES CATEGORY IF POSSIBLE, STAY ALIVE AND DONT EVER DO ANYTHING!! SIMPLE MANTRA.
POSSIBLE DIFFERENCE FROM GREECE IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO GERMANY OR FRANCE ETC HOLDING A CARPET UNDER THE CRUMBLING FLOOR. THE DROP WILL BE SHARP AND STEEP.ADD A FEW NATURAL CALAMITIES ( OR MAN MADE ONES LIKE UNCLEARED GARBAGE AND BLOCKED DRAINS AND WHAM! YOU HAVE IT. THE VULTURES ARE ALREADY HOVERING. ITS POSSIBLY A MATTER OF TIME. NO MORE WILL?? ITS WHEN!!!