Additional wealth is mostly a mirage - The Daily Reckoning
The Daily Reckoning by Bill Bonner
On This Day - 14 January 2014
Additional wealth is mostly a mirage A  A  A

Baltimore, Maryland

Dow down 179 yesterday. Let's see, to make the math easy...that's about 1% of the stock market's value...and the total value of the stock market is about $17 trillion. So, yesterday erased about $170 billion worth of 'wealth.' By our reckoning, there's about $7 trillion left to go.

It's too early to call a top...but we wouldn't want to be sitting on the uppermost branch of this tree. The higher up you go the more dangerous your perch. From where we stand, on the ground, the whole thing looks scary. There are too many people in that tree already...all of them counting on calm, sunny weather...and a longer growing season for their money.

What a shame it would be if the tree fell over!

Everybody invests in stocks hoping to 'beat the market.' But everyone IS the market. Only a few outliers beat it - usually by accident. Of course, last year stock buyers were happy just to ride along with the market. Beating it wasn't necessary. As we reported, the rich saw their wealth rise by $3.7 trillion last year. Much of that came from the stock market, which hit new records. Investors are hoping for a repeat of this performance in '14. Even if it does half as well, they tell themselves, it will still be an impressive gain.

But we have some questions: Against whom are they gaining ground? From whom are they taking the loot? Or, to put it another way, who's on the other side of the trade?

The economy as a whole rose at a 2% rate. So, there was a grand total of about $340 billion in real, extra wealth to divvy up. How was it possible for shareholders to get 10 times as much as the value of the wealth the economy created?

But wait. The mystery deepens.

Since the depths of the crash in '09, household wealth has gone up by $21 trillion. Roughly, it went from $50 trillion to $71 trillion. During that same time, real household earnings for the typical family have gone down. Wages have gone down. And the net worth of the typical family also has gone down. Growth rates have declined. And, as a proportion of the population, the number of people with jobs has also declined.

Look at a chart of real GDP and you will see that it is only about 6% higher than it was in 2007. So, household wealth went up nearly 20 times faster than GDP since '09. How could that be?

The Bernanke Team was trying to goose up asset prices. They succeeded. The 'wealth effect' brought an additional $21 trillion to the nation's balance sheets. This was supposed to increase demand...which would lead to more spending and investing,

Say's Law tells us that you have to produce before you consume (more or less). But here we have about $20 trillion of excess spending power that seemed to come from nowhere. How could that be?

Wealth is either in owning a big house or a painting by Modigliani...or it is paper wealth. Now we have new claims on $21 trillion of real output and real wealth. If there is no increase in real wealth, that money just competes for the same goods and services that were already priced at $50 trillion 5 years ago. We're not a dime wealthier, in other words.

All paper assets are a claim against real goods and services. And you can't get more goods and services than the economy can produce. Since the economy of '08 - '13 produced only a fraction as much real wealth as the claims against it, those claims will have to be applied to future output.

So, when will the economy produce $21 trillion of new wealth so that these new claims can be realized? Let's see:

"...the future looks sluggish," wrote Financial Times lead economist Martin Wolf. The FT editor joins Larry Summers who argues that US growth is stuck in the mud, and may not get out any time soon.

"Since the start of this century," writes Summers, "annual US gross domestic product growth has averaged less than 1.8 per cent."

Hmm...that's about $300 billion. Let's see, how long do you have to wait - at $300 billion per year - to cover $21 trillion in claims? Answer: 70 years!

Well, that's not going to happen, is it? Long before 2084 rolls around, those claims will be marked down and written off.

In other words, the additional wealth is mostly a mirage.

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Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

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