Developed world is going Japan's way

Feb 9, 2012

Baltimore, Maryland

Get out your chopsticks! Brush up on your sushi! Learn to read backwards and upside down!

Yes...we're going to Japan!

The gist of the Japanese situation is this:

The bubble burst in 1990. But rather than let their big businesses go belly up, the Japanese used every trick in the book. Counter-cyclical deficits up the Shinanho. ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). And QE too.

The economy didn't grow. It didn't collapse. It just got a moth in amber. No new jobs. No new output. And get this, Japan is expected to lose 40% of its working age population by 2050.

But Japan is a leader, not a follower. Over the next 40 years, Germany will lose more than 30% of its working age population too. Russia and Poland will lose even more.

Growth is expected to be negligible over the next 40 years in Japan. But it will be almost nothing in many other countries too, according an HSBC report. It estimates that the US will grow at around 1.5% annually. France 1.1%. Denmark, Norway, Sweden - barely anything at all.

What does this sound like to you, dear reader? It sounds like the whole developed world going Japan's way - with low growth and high debts from here to eternity.

As in Japan, so in Europe and America. The European Central Bank is lending the banks as much as they want - at low rates. The Fed has its own ZIRP...which it says it will keep in place until 2014.

Growth is stalled...debts are mounting up. Hello Tokyo!

But's the Congressional Budget Office telling us that Congress will have those deficits under control in no time.

"Deficits to fall sharply, US forecast says," reports the International Herald Tribune.

What a relief that is! The CBO has crunched the numbers. It has beaten up the 2s. It has punched out the 5s. It has pounded the 6s. And now, finally, like prisoners at Guantanamo, the numbers tell us what we want to hear.

US debt is going down!

Wait a minute...are these the same number crunchers who, at the beginning of the 21st century, forecast federal surpluses as far as the eye could see?

Yes, it is!

But, okay, that didn't work out exactly as planned. They crunched the numbers but then the numbers got un-crunched on their own. Damned numbers! You just can't trust them.

So, how can we trust these numbers?

That's just it, dear reader, we can't. In order to work out as planned, they require:

  1. Congress has to let the Bush tax cuts expire on schedule. Hmmm... Will that happen? Beats us. It probably depends on who wins the elections in November...which probably depends on what the economy does between now and then...which probably depends on more things than we can't begin to estimate and compute.
But the central idea of it - that Congress will act responsibly - seems like something you can't say with a straight face. Will pandas stop eating bamboo? Will teenagers stop slouching? Will liquor stores make free home deliveries? Nope. Everything has a nature of its own. And the nature of Congress is to spend money it doesn't have on things it doesn't need. And then to push the bill onto the next Congress...the next administration and the next generation.
  1. Not only do taxes have to go up, so does economic growth. There's a problem right there. According to prevailing theories, if you increase taxes during a de-leveraging spell, you don't get faster rates of GDP growth. You get slower growth.
The CBO acknowledges this problem, to a degree. It allows as how unemployment may go up, thanks to the tax increases. In fact, they say it will go to 9% in 2013.

How will the President, Congress and the Fed react to rising unemployment? Mightn't it tempt them to engage in a little more counter-cyclical the expense of the tax cuts?

And what happens to growth rates? The CBO figures that growth can outstrip deficits. Maybe. Maybe not. Now, it's not even close. There's a $1.1 trillion deficit this year. Growth? Maybe a fifth of that. In other words, debt is growing 5 times faster than the economy.

During Mr. Obama's first (and maybe last) term, US debt will grow by more than $5 trillion. Another term like that and we'll be over $20 trillion.

And already the weight of debt is pressing down growth rates...and it's getting worse.

And if HSBC is right, US growth will be very slow. Will deficits also be very low? Below 1.5% of GDP? Down from over $1 for the last 4 years to under $225 billion for the next 40?

Heck, we're a soft-headed as anyone. We'd like to see the whole problem go away too. And maybe it will...

But we wouldn't bet on it...---------------------------------------- Have an enriching Saturday! ----------------------------------------

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*** More thoughts? Well, we don't have any more thoughts today. We're off to Florida and Nicaragua tomorrow...

But don't worry, we'll write.

Long term Daily Reckoning sufferers will get a break soon, however. For the first time in 12 years - since we began writing this blog - we're taking an extended vacation....a mini-sabbatical...beginning on Feb. 23rd. We tell you now in case you want to take a vacation of your own...or go on a binge.

Yes, dear reader, we're going down to the mountains of Argentina where we're building a retreat. Two sons are joining us...along with 3 gauchos and a build a solar-heated adobe house with vaulted ceilings and a domed roof...

What do we know about building vaulted ceilings out of adobe bricks? Well, nothing. But we'll know a lot more when we come back in April.

We'll let you know how it turns out.

And if the world goes to hell in the meantime, we won't be back!

Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

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1 Responses to "Developed world is going Japan's way"

Nikhil Shah

Feb 9, 2012


I am an avid reader of your column and will definately miss you till the time you come back.

The way you analyse the things, is simple and very interesting and obviously backed up the data.

Have a nice and happy holiday!

Nikhil Shah

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Developed world is going Japan's way". Click here!