All Eyes on Greece - The Daily Reckoning
The Daily Reckoning by Bill Bonner
On This Day - 16 June 2012
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- By Asad Dossani, Author, The Lucrative Derivative Report


Asad Dossani
This is no ordinary weekend. Elections in Greece are taking place, and their outcome will likely determine whether Greece stays in the Eurozone or not. They may also determine whether Greece will default, and whether this will cause a panic or contagion that affects the rest of the Europe and the world.

At least, this is what we believe will occur based on what the media is telling us. There is no doubt that the election results have the potential to cause major market mayhem on Monday and the rest of the week. Though it seems like the media is looking for an answer or a solution to the problem.

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We get the impression that one way or another; the Greek crisis will be over soon. Either they'll default and leave the euro, or they'll successfully renegotiate the terms of the bailout, avoid default, and stay in the euro. One thing is for sure; this weekend we will get an answer.

The reality is not so simple. The financial press is looking for a solution to this problem, because most of us are tired of hearing about Greece. We want this to finally be resolved, whichever way it goes. As a country in terms of GDP, Greece represents 1.7% of the Eurozone and 0.4% of the world economy.

In other words, the Greek economy is tiny relative to the rest of the world. Yet, the impact that the Greek economy has on the rest of the world is incredibly large. The whole world is waiting to see what happens over the weekend, because market mayhem and panic may ensue across global markets the following week, especially if Greece should default and leave the euro.

Unfortunately, we are highly unlikely to get a resolution of the crisis anytime soon. The Greek debt crisis has been in the news since the start of 2010. Time and time again, there have been agreements, bailouts, and other measures that we thought would signal an end to the crisis. Just earlier this year, it appeared that the Greek situation had been solved with the latest deal.

Now we are looking to these Greek elections as a solution to the crisis. If repeated deals between Greece and its Eurozone partners over the previous two years did nothing to solve the crisis, how is a second Greek election going to help? The first Greek election just made things worse.

Understandably we want this crisis to end so we can move on. We're tired of hearing about Greece in the news. We're tired of the uncertainty this is causing in our own economy here at home. Or maybe we've become addicted to the drama. Yet again, all eyes on Greece. Brace yourselves for a wild week in the markets.

is a financial analyst and columnist. He actively trades his own and others' funds, investing primarily in currency, commodity, and stock index derivative products. Prior to this, he worked at Deutsche Bank as an analyst in the FX derivatives team. He is a graduate of the London School of Economics. Asad is a keen observer of macroeconomic trends and their effects on global financial markets. He is deeply passionate about educating investors, and encouraging individuals to take part in and profit from financial markets. To put it colloquially, he wishes to take Wall Street products and turn them into Main Street profits!

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2 Responses to "All Eyes on Greece"

lms

Jun 17, 2012

Greece never upheld the Western Europe traditions.The rest of Europe knows this.By plunging onto the Eurozone bandwagon it has virtually had it for a ride.Result is again for all to see.Thus Europe is a part of 'its own problem.'

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Aditya Deshpande

Jun 17, 2012

Asad,

I am in Athens right now and have been speaking about this to my colleagues in Greece to judge for myself what Greeks generally think about it. I also spoke to the hotel housekeeping and other staff who basically represent the lower financial echelon of the society. It looks like the election will result in Greece voting to stay in the European Union. It is also likely that they are not going to accept the EU austerity measures anymore. They want the decrease in deficit aided by growth in GDP rather than reduction in spending. They draw a parallel to the depression in US - it is like the depression. Nearly 45% of young Greeks out of college are without jobs. In US the economy was brought out of depression by development project by the government which put money in people's pocket which in turn increased buying/spending by people resulting in businesses growing and overall GDP growing and reaching self sustaining levels. They want to do that. Not what Merkel wants to do which they believe will destroy Greece. They also believe the 3% deficit requirement is unrealistic in times of recession when government needs to aid growth.

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