Too few jobs for too many people - The Daily Reckoning
The Daily Reckoning by Bill Bonner
On This Day - 6 July 2010
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Paris, France

Americans may have fretted a bit over the holiday weekend. The news has been bad. At least, if you regard a correction as bad.

California is cutting its payroll and putting others on minimum wage salaries.

Illinois has run out of money and stopped paying its bills.

The stock market is going down. Bond yields are at record lows.

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The housing credit has expired. The clunkers have all been crushed. Census workers are being awarding medals for counting above and beyond the call of duty...and sent home.

The feds' stimulus didn't stimulate...their recovery didn't recover...their counter-cyclical fiscal policy didn't counter much of anything. And now it's all running out...and we're beginning to see the word 'depression' used to describe America's malaise:

"Dow repeats Depression pattern," says an item on CNBC.

US "trapped in Depression," says a headline at the Telegraph in London.

Consumer bankruptcies are at their highest level in 5 years.

Houses aren't selling. Retail sales are down. Factory orders are falling.

And the cruel Senate told those whose unemployment benefits have run out to 'go fish.'

"Recession Jolted Most Americans into Cheaper Living," said a recent Bloomberg headline.

That's what you'd expect in a Great Correction. But who expected a Great Correction? Not many people. Instead, most expected a recovery.

Whatever is going on, a recovery is not it.

There were fewer jobs at the end of June than there were at the beginning of the month - 625,000 fewer. The Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate went down to 9.5% but everybody now understands that the numbers are fraudulent. The feds are just disappearing people from the unemployment rosters. In fact, they dropped 1 million Americans off the list in the last two months. These people are not 'actively' seeking employment, they say.

But it now takes 35 weeks, on average, from losing a job to finding a new one - if you're able to find a new one. That's about half again as long as it took in the worst job market of our lifetimes, during the late '70s.

With five people available for every job opening, naturally, a lot of people don't find work and give up. Bad odds.

We only actively looked for a job once in our lives - in the early '70s. We had gotten out of college. It was time to start a career. So we looked in the paper for jobs in journalism, for which we were completely untrained. We saw an opening in Washington, DC, at a newsletter company. We put on a suit and went for an interview.

The interview went well. But we didn't get the job. They wanted someone with a better haircut or a better resume. Either way, it did not look like job hunting was going to work out for us. Fortunately a friend needed help. He paid $100 a week. That wasn't much. But it was a start. We stuck with him until we were able to start our own newsletter company.

Pity the poor people who are looking for a job now. Nearly 8 million jobs have been lost in the last 3 years. Many of those jobs will never come back. Recovery? Forget it. Who's going to build McMansions ever again? No one. They are relics of the Bubble Age...historical artefacts -- like a Chrysler Imperial with huge fins from the '70s..

But wait...it gets worse. Because even people who are working are earning less money. Hourly wage earnings are falling.

Hey, maybe China will get out of this slump? No, China's economy is slowing down. And Ken Rogoff says its real estate market is beginning to collapse.

Fortunately, (and here you see our Daily Reckoning sunny side coming through the clouds) a great correction is just what the country needs. Remember, you can't make bad decisions good or make debts disappear. You have to work through them...write them off, pay them off, default, foreclose, Chapter 11 or Chapter 7. That's what we have corrections for.

Best to get on with it...

*** Earnings in the private sector in Britain are falling at their fastest rate ever...down 1.1% in the first quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the economy is in a 'savage' recession; GDP growth was negative by 1.9% in the first quarter, the worst performance in 30 years.

Willem Buiter, a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said: "The economy will be shrinking into next year. We'll be in recession and have sharply rising unemployment for the next year or year-and-a-half."


*** Zombification continues.

The purest and most obvious zombies are criminals. They make no pretense about it. They're out for blood.

But what's interesting is how the pure zombies work hand in hand with the poseurs. You put a zombie in jail, for example, and before long the prison system - guards, suppliers, builders, administrators, unions - has become zombified, lobbying the state legislature for more laws, more criminal penalties, and more prisons. America has more prisons and prisoners than anywhere on earth. Why is that? Is it because Americans are worse people? Or is it become the correctional system has become a vast zombie gulag, leeching on the rest of the society?

We saw an example of this kind of symbiotic zombification in the International Herald Tribune over the weekend. Chicago has no money. It also has a lot of young people who like to shoot at each other. So, the city hires full time counselors to work with 'at risk' youths...one on one...accompanying them to school and to the store and so forth.

The counselors are supposed to help keep the hoodlums from going off the rails. Whether they succeed or not, we don't know. We just notice how the system drains blood from the real economy into an activity that may sound worthy, but is really just a conspiracy of zombies.

An even more outrageous example comes from England, recounted to us by a new friend, an English lawyer:

"There was a famous case a few years ago. Two boys, I think they were only 10 years old, snatched a two-year-old from his mother at a mall. They marched him into the woods. They used an iron bar to bash in his head. And they mutilated him in some way that was never described to the public.

"These were very nasty boys. They planned the whole thing. After they killed the child they laid his body on the railroad tracks...where it was discovered. And then, the local people were horrified, of course. They put flowers on the railroad tracks to mark the site. The killers - who hadn't been caught yet -- joined the mourners. Cold blooded. It's on video-tape.

"Finally, the police caught them. One of the boys cracked and confessed.

"But what happened next was bizarre. The criminal justice system rose to defend the boys in the most remarkable manner. Since they were minors they couldn't be tried as adults. Instead, the legal establishment soon turned these monsters into 'victims.' They were appointed custodians, and counselors, and lawyers, of course, all paid for by the government. And the government provided full care ...including schooling, of course, but also television and toys. Since they were underage, they could only be sent to a kind of reform school. But they only stayed there for a short time. Because the people of Liverpool were so incensed, the murderers got death threats. So they petitioned for something like the witness protection program, where their identities were changed, and they were to be supported by the government for the rest of their lives - even after they were no longer in government custody. You couldn't even find out what happened to them. They could be living next door to you and your children."

Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

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3 Responses to "Too few jobs for too many people"

khalid

Jul 7, 2010

Great writing as usual....

I think equity master should really get serious and advise if these things are going to be true for Indian markets as well....

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K.Murali

Jul 6, 2010

This is purely a developed market scenario and western life happenings. I believe this is not linked to the Indian market scenario, though all of us agree the markets are linked. If what Bill claims , it would be another strangulation for the stock market in the coming months, is true then equity master should come out with its opinion on the Indian market . Even if this not true , then equity master should explain its audience the disconnects and connects of such an article with the indian market. Else it appears like equity master believes in a double dip even for india.

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rajinder

Jul 6, 2010

Probably american should start migrating to emerging countries and look for jobs. emerging countries like India
find Americans(esp. white skinned) very intelligent. I m sure they will get royal treatment in India

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