Rescuing the recovery - The Daily Reckoning
The Daily Reckoning by Bill Bonner
On This Day - 23 July 2010
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The poor recovery. It seemed to be doing so well. And now look at it. Fallen on hard times. Down on its luck. Worn out.

"Unusually uncertain," is how Ben Bernanke explains the situation.

What he means by that is that he doesn't have any more idea of what is going on than he did three years ago or two years ago...or one year ago.

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You remember, Mr. Bernanke was the one who warned Congress that "we may not have an economy by Monday," if Congress didn't pass a bill providing bailouts and boondoggles.

And now, after he'd doubled the US monetary base at the Fed...and encouraged the government to put about $10 trillion at risk in various bailouts, guarantees and spending projects...he's dumbfounded. Where's the recovery?

"New jobless claims jump from two-year low

"WASHINGTON (AP) - New jobless claims jumped last week by the most since February, reversing a sharp fall two weeks ago. The rise is partly a result of seasonal factors but also reflects the job market's weakness.

"The Labor Department says new claims for unemployment insurance jumped by 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 464,000. Analysts expected a smaller rise, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters."

Week after week, in comes more evidence. The recovery isn't recovering. Instead, it's going into a funk of its own.

But don't worry, dear reader. Bernanke told Congress that he is prepared to do whatever it takes to rescue the recovery and get the economy rolling again. Bloomberg:

"Bernanke Says Fed Is Prepared to Act as Needed

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said central bankers "remain prepared" to act as needed to aid growth even as they get ready to eventually raise interest rates from almost zero and shrink a record balance sheet."


What can he do? Well, he can print money. Even the 'credible threat' of printing money should be enough to give the market 'inflation expectations,' Bernanke has said in the past.

But this week's announcement led to a $3 rise in gold. Not much. Apparently the threat is not credible.

Stocks did better, however. The Dow rose 201 points.

*** What's all this BS about the oil spill, asked Marcia Rocha Mello yesterday.

"There are thousands of oil wells in the Gulf. They drill a thousand per year. They have one accident and the press makes a big deal of it.

"But oil spills are not very harmful. In fact, they're good things. There are natural oil leaks all the time... Millions of gallons leak into the oceans, a thousand times more than from the Macando well. But oil is a natural thing too. Bacteria work on the oil. They convert it to forms of planckton, which are the base of the maritime food chain.

"One thing you can be sure of, the oil price will rise. Oil production is going down. Demand is going up. It is a mathematical certainty that the price will rise. We will never, ever see oil in the $70- $80 price range again. Never."

***

The State the Welfare State is In

'You can take your loans and shove them,' the Hungarian economic minister, Gyorgy Matolscy, did not say. But that's what he was thinking. Watch out. The Hungarians are trendsetters. They ran a budget deficit of 9% of GDP back in 2006. They got a $20 billion bailout in 2008 and have been living with austerity measures ever since. The current budget is only in deficit by 3.8% of GDP - barely a third of the US level.

After a regime change in April, they've had enough. "We told the IMF/EU that further austerity was out of the question," said Matolcsy.

Les Echos reported this week that 64% of French workers were retired by age 60. People working for favored state enterprises - such as the SNCF, which runs the train system...or for the "fonction publique," which keeps people from getting anywhere - may retire earlier. They get extra credit for years worked in hardship overseas destinations - such as Tahiti, for example. And a French politician can get a pension after only 6 years in government. In the old days it was a lucky man who retired before his beard grows white. Now, if he plays his cards right, he could begin collecting a pension before his beard starts to grow at all.

This information comes in the context of a great debate, "a parliamentary battle." The French government has proposed a law raising the retirement age to 62. The socialists have proposed 150 amendments. Over at the Financial Times, meanwhile, the editors have devoted this week to their own great debate on the subject. "To tighten, or not to tighten - that is the question," writes Martin Wolf.

The rumbles in Paris and London are just two of many mock skirmishes going on. Neither side wants to aim too carefully at the real problem; they fear they might hit themselves!

You'll recall, the G20 - the USA dissenting -- urged member states to cut public expenses. They pledged to cut public deficits in half by 2013 and to stabilize debt by 2016. But Hungary has already broken ranks.

The big spenders insist that more spending is needed to protect the system. The cutters say more cuts are the thing that will preserve it. Neither has any doubt that the system is worth saving. That, precisely, is the target of today's back page artillery.

Otto von Bismark would hardly believe what a smashing success his innovation has become. Practically every advanced government picked it up in one form or other. The little guy liked it because he thought it gave him something for nothing. And the welfare state proved him right. The expenses of the first generations in the system were easily supported by the larger, richer generations that came after. Leaders liked it too, because it made the voters more dependent and controllable: the masses wouldn't revolt as long as their pension checks kept coming.

Ernest Ackerman must have smiled broadly when he got the first US Social Security check for 17 cents in 1937. Since then, the checks got bigger and came earlier. More benefits were added - education, health care, parks, libraries, unemployment compensation.... Ordinary people began to spend more time in universities than they did in bars. Health care services included evermore complicated and expensive procedures. Thousands were employed to regulate, control, control, protect and administer the public weal. Millions more were able to malinger and leech. One got- a subsidy for his farm. Another was 'disabled' at work. And still another had his bank bailed out.

The first problem is obvious; the costs got out of hand. The United States has one of the least extensive social welfare systems. (It makes up for it with military spending.) Yet, its basic figures are not much different from those of most European states. The US has a current deficit equal to about 12% of GDP and has debt approaching 100% of GDP. If you include state and local debt, as well as the under-funded liabilities of its pension and health care plans, the total rises to more than 500%. In other words, future generations will have to devote 5 years' worth of total US output in order to pay for benefits awarded by a previous generation of politicians.

Over time, too, the 'benefits' tend to become more and more bogus. Providers and recipients connive in a kind of symbiotic zombie-ism. Perpetual students take pathetic and preposterous classes from permanent professors. Morbid patients, funded by the state, become the health care industry's best customers. And early retirees clog the highways with their camping cars, when they should be at work. Chiselers, grifters, stuffed shirts and time-wasters -- the welfare state attracts them like a rich old widow attracts gigolos.

The masses are beginning to see this as a losing proposition; the swindle no longer works in their favor. New generations are often smaller. They may not be richer either. Staggered by debt and deadbeats, the next generation will have a hard enough time taking care of itself, let alone paying the accumulated expenses of the ones that came before.

Today, a taxpayer pays a euro to his government. With all the waste and corruption, he's lucky if he gets 50 centimes' worth of real services. Officials try to disguise these facts by borrowing, hiding the 'social charges,' and printing money. But word gets around: the welfare state no longer pays.

Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

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1 Responses to "Rescuing the recovery"

Sanjeev Pandiya

Jul 24, 2010

Simply brilliantly written. It gives you hope that if this becomes the consensus over a decade (like the other big Bonner idea of "The Trade of The Decade"), Govts all over the world will start to deleverage and maybe their respective currencies will start to get some value.
As a general rule, Gold will still be the best investment, but some will (deleverage) more than others. And some will leverage more than others, suddenly seeing their currency lose credibility and value. The ones who are disciplined, will do better than those who are not, and so the cycle will go on.

But overall, things will get better, thanks to the likes of Bonner and his BIG IDEAS. So buy Gold against everything else, but maybe...buy the Euro against the Dollar, buy the Rupee against the Dollar, buy the CNY against the Rupee....just keep watching Govt deficits and total Public Debt, to get an idea where each country/ currency is going.

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