- By Bill Bonner
It is wet, but not cold, in this area of France this morning. Rain splashes on the copper flashing. The windowpanes fog over. We have made some tea and settled into our library for a long day's study.
One of the pleasures of life is having a good place to work. This was an old octagonal building, with a cement floor and brick walls, that had been used for laundry. We replaced the windows, put in a gas fireplace, and lined the walls with books.
You never know how these projects are going to turn out. We have been building and remodeling all our lives; this is one of the successes. It is warm, cozy, richly decorated with books and old guitars...and a delight to be in. We look forward to opening the door in the morning. We regret having to close it at night...
Buy high, sell low
Yesterday we learned from Wall Street Journal reporter Brett Arends that this is the best time to invest in the stock market:
Meanwhile, those gains have typically all come during the winter months. Peculiar, but apparently true. The most recent academic study, which has looked at stock markets around the world and went back in some cases more than 100 years, has found that winter has beaten summer pretty consistently in almost every country and almost every period. On average, the winter months have beaten the summer by a factor of about three. Or, to put it another way: During the winter half of the year, global stocks have typically beaten bonds by about 5 percentage points a year ... but during the summer months, stocks have done worse than bonds by about 1 percentage point.
Point? If you want to do well with your investments, you will buy stocks...and buy them now.
Then, Arends goes further. He tells us how much of our money we should have in stocks. Citing the work of Andrew Smithers, he concludes that...
But wait. Smithers thinks stocks are very expensive now (as we do). And everybody knows you can't make money by buying high and selling low. You have to do it the other way around. So, what do you do? Buy foreign stocks!
Meanwhile, CNBC reports that this could turn out to be the worst time to buy stock in eight years:
Out of the nine S&P 500 companies with the biggest buyback programs, four are down in stock price over the last year. Exxon Mobil, IBM, 21st Century Fox and Merck are all negative for the year, and Oracle and Intel are fighting to hold onto incremental gains.
According to Oppenhemier's S&P buyback index, stocks with the highest buyback ratios have been falling behind the broader market. Underperformance of this index coincided with a market top in 2000 and again in 2007, technician Ari Wald of Oppenheimer said Wednesday on CNBC's Trading Nation.
Nothing. These technical studies are entertaining. But they are useless from an investment point of view. The first focusses on the last 30 years. It tells us that people who bought and held stocks did very well.
Well, big woop!
In the first place, 30 years ago, stocks were cheap. They had a lot of room to go up. If they had been expensive when the period started, the gains would have almost certainly been more modest.
In the second place, this period was extraordinary, unique, and as queer as a $3 bill. It was marked by the biggest rush of money and credit into the world's asset markets in history - with an increase of US$12 trillion in world forex reserves. Where was all this money going to go?
A new study by Patrick Artus at Natixis Research shows that almost none of the base money increases over the last seven years - M0 - have made their way into the kind of money that boosts consumer prices and stirs economies - M2.
This 'money supply' was almost exclusively used by Wall Street, not Main Street.
Which is why the rich got so rich. And why real economies did not benefit. And why wages did not rise. And why the whole program was more larceny than monetary policy...
...and why stock owners made so much money.
Now those stock market investors think they are geniuses. Analysts add the numbers and confirm it. Reporters give out the word...
...and a whole new generation of investors believes it. They want to make money too. What better way than to do what worked for their parents? Buy stocks!
Alas, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The fix was in. And just because some lucky stiff made money in a rigged market over the last 30 years doesn't mean you will.
Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.