Mr Jaitley, what is India's 'real' fiscal deficit?

Dec 22, 2015

28

The ministry of finance released the Mid-Year Economic Analysis for 2015-2016(April 2015 to March 2016) last week. One of the worrying things that it pointed out in the report was regarding India's fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is the difference between what a government earns and what it spends.

In the annual budget for 2015-2016, it was projected that the fiscal deficit for the year would work out to Rs 5,55,649 crore or 3.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP). From the way things stand as of now it is highly unlikely that this number will be achieved.

Why is that? It is all about the way the GDP number has been calculated. When the government says that it expects the fiscal deficit to be at 3.9% of the GDP, it is talking about the GDP in nominal terms. Nominal GDP is essentially GDP which hasn't been adjusted for inflation. The GDP for 2015-2016 has been projected at Rs 14,108,945 crore by assuming an 11.5% growth over the GDP of Rs 12,653,762 crore for 2014-2015 (April 2014 to March 2015).


Advertisement
  Equitymaster Conference 2016  
23rd January. Mumbai, India
   
  It gives us great pleasure in extending you an invitation to join us at the Equitymaster Conference 2016. This is going to be one of our most important Conferences ever! And I strongly recommend you attend it.

At the Equitymaster Conference, our best ever line up of speakers, starting with Ajit Dayal (Founder, Equitymaster) and Bill Bonner (Founder, Agora Inc.) will aim to address all your questions about the current investment environment, thereby help you in planning your next steps. Including...

»  Where are the stock markets headed?
»  What should be your investment strategy for Indian stocks?
»  Is it finally time to get bullish on real estate?
»  Is the Gold story over?
»  What's next for India's economy, and the Indian Rupee?

Plus, at the Conference you will get an opportunity to rub shoulders with not just our speakers, but also like-minded investors from across India (Last year we welcomed guests from 33 cities, and 3 countries).

So if you are serious about your investments, The Equitymaster Conference 2016 is something you cannot afford to miss. More details about the Conference and our speaker line up are available here.

We suggest you move very fast on this invitation.

Reserve your seat under our 'Early Bird' opportunity!
 

Hence, the projected fiscal deficit of Rs 5,55,649 crore expressed as a proportion of the projected nominal GDP of Rs 14,108,945 crore is 3.9%. So far so good.

The trouble is that 11.5% growth is turning out to be an extremely optimistic assumption. The Mid-Year Economic Analysis points out that the GDP growth during the first six months of 2015-2016, has been at 8.2% instead of the assumed 11.5%. And this is a huge gap.

If the GDP is to grow by 11.2% during the course of the year, then it needs to grow by 13.6% during the second half of the year. i.e. between October 2015 and March 2016.

The way things stand as of now that seems highly unlikely. So how will the fiscal deficit look if the GDP grows by only 8.2% during the course of the year? In that case, the fiscal deficit will work out to 4.1% of the GDP, assuming that the absolute number of Rs 5,55,649 crore, does not change. Hence, the fiscal deficit will see a jump of 20 basis points from the expected 3.9% to the actual 4.1%. One basis point equals one hundredth of a percentage.

As the Mid-Year Economic Analysis points out: "It is true that the decline in nominal GDP growth relative to the budget assumption will pose a challenge for meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP. Slower-than-anticipated nominal GDP growth (8.2 percent versus budget estimate of 11.5) will itself raise the deficit target by 0.2 percent of GDP. The anticipated shortfall in disinvestment receipts, owing to adverse market conditions for a portfolio that largely comprises commodity stocks, will add to the challenge."

So how does the government plan to tackle this challenge? As the Mid-Year Economic Analysis points out: "Tax collections have been buoyant. That plus the additional revenue measures (the Swachh Bharat cess and recent increases in excise) will ensure that central government's target will be met."

Last week the government raised the excise duty on petrol and diesel again by Rs 0.30 per litre and Rs 1.17 per litre respectively. This will add Rs 2,500 crore to the government kitty during the remaining part of the year. The total excise duty on petrol and diesel currently stands at Rs 19.36 and Rs 11.83 per litre.

Excise duty on diesel and petrol has been a major source of finance for the government. As Harsh Damodaran writes in The Indian Express: "Since June 2014, the specific excise duty on diesel has been hiked from Rs 3.56 to Rs 11.83 per litre, and from Rs 9.48 to Rs 19.36 per litre for petrol. The annual revenue gain to it from these increases would add up to Rs 95,000 crore or so - Rs 68,000 crore from diesel, and Rs 27,000 crore from petrol." The excise duty has been hiked seven times since November 2014.

Getting back to the fiscal deficit-it is more than likely that the government will meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% of the GDP. This will be achieved through higher excise duty collections. Don't be surprised if the excise duty on petrol and diesel is increased further, if the price of oil falls any further (let's say it goes below $30 per barrel). Along with that some expenditure cuts will also have to be made. As the Mid-Year Economic Analysis points out: "If the typical pattern of revenue collection and spending is taken into account, the first half outturn is well in line with meeting the year's target."

Nevertheless, it needs to be pointed out here that the government has been postponing the payment of fertilizer as well as food subsidies. As the economist Ashok Gulati writes in The Indian Express: "Fertiliser policy is in a mess. Unpaid fertiliser subsidy bills to the industry have crossed Rs 40,000 crore, and will likely reach Rs 48,000 crore by the end of this fiscal year, as per industry estimates...The finance minister may be smart enough to show that the fiscal deficit is under control, but unpaid fertiliser and food subsidy bills have together already crossed Rs 1,00,000 crore."

Over and above this, a report in The Financial Express points out that the unpaid subsidy of the Food Corporation of India (FCI) was at an all-time high of Rs 73,650 crore as of March 2015. What this tells us very clearly is that the fiscal deficit number of 3.9% of the GDP is incorrect. It has been achieved by the government postponing the payment of subsidies.

This is not a good practice given that the aim of any accounting should be to put forward the correct financial picture. By postponing the payment of bills, the government beats that very purpose.

It needs to be pointed out here that this isn't something that the Narendra Modi government started. It was something that they have inherited from the previous Congress led United Progressive Alliance government.

Having said that it is now their problem and it needs to be tackled, instead of just being postponed. As Gulati writes: "Clear the arrears...If not in one go, the finance minister could commit to doing this over two years. Blaming the previous government for the mess will not help."

Indeed, that is a sensible suggestion which the finance minister Arun Jaitley should implement when he presents the next budget in February 2016. Also, a part of the finance for these payments could be raised through shutting of loss making public sector enterprises and selling off their assets (primarily land in cities which is in perennial short supply).

The question is will Jaitley choose to clean up the government accounts or postpone the problem again? My bet is on the latter. How about yours?

Vivek Kaul is the Editor of the Diary and The Vivek Kaul Letter. Vivek is a writer who has worked at senior positions with the Daily News and Analysis (DNA) and The Economic Times, in the past. He is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. The latest book in the trilogy Easy Money: The Greatest Ponzi Scheme Ever and How It Is Set to Destroy the Global Financial System was published in March 2015. The books were bestsellers on Amazon. His writing has also appeared in The Times of India, The Hindu, The Hindu Business Line, Business World, Business Today, India Today, Business Standard, Forbes India, Deccan Chronicle, The Asian Age, Mutual Fund Insight, Wealth Insight, Swarajya, Bangalore Mirror among others.

Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

Recent Articles

Get 'India's Big Government' at Just Rs 199 Now October 18, 2017
Vivek's latest book is now available at a rare discount. Grab a copy now.
Our Plan to Save the Ranch October 18, 2017
How to increase fertility in the kingdom of cows.
Nobody Honks in Bali - Lessons for Indian Tourism October 17, 2017
Things India can learn to promote tourism from this small island.
We Rode Out... Unarmed October 17, 2017
Money is the tape measure for the carpenter economy.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Mr Jaitley, what is India's 'real' fiscal deficit?". Click here!

9 Responses to "Mr Jaitley, what is India's 'real' fiscal deficit?"

mukeshmkale

Dec 23, 2015

With fiat money all macro, micro norms and theories are invalid.
Nominal numbers quoting, low interest rate(easy money)-low tax(print money) regime advocating further makes it all unbelievable. What anything as % of anything ( remotely connected) does mean in physical terms?
If Ron Paul cuts defense budget to its 1/3 and start repaying US debts world will go into whirlpool.

Like 

Girish Patkar

Dec 23, 2015

The PM is managing the nation like a CEO and will be willing and ready to sell of loss making enterprises like Air India etc.. The question is, who will control the Congress and the Left who are blocking even GST. Will they allow sale of loss making units without politicising the issue.

Like (1)

Manish shah

Dec 22, 2015

Sir, your bet will hit bull's eye. It's now become a habit for any government to postpone hard decisions. Be it be BJP or Congress or for that matter any party, they are birds of same feather. All have lost guts to tackle any difficult problem head on. Easiest thing to do is kick the can down the road. All they can think of is next election......

Like (1)

R K Nagpal

Dec 22, 2015

FM will postpone the problem again. Present GOVT is also towing the line of Cong and trying to show the lower deficit by postponing subsidy .BJP is also not taking to bold steps of selling loss making PSU's for any political fall out. It is also taxing general public ( mainly middle class ) which is worst sufferer by increasing excise duty on petrol & diesel and by supporting loss making units rk nagpal

Like (1)

R K Nagpal

Dec 22, 2015

FM will postpone the problem again. Present GOVT is also towing the line of Cong and trying to show the lower deficit by postponing subsidy .BJP is also not taking to bold steps of selling loss making PSU's for any political fall out. It is also taxing general public ( mainly middle class ) which is worst sufferer by increasing excise duty on petrol & diesel and by supporting loss making units rk nagpal

Like (1)

LOGANATHAN

Dec 22, 2015

Vivek

Please go thru the right source of GDP data. For Q1, the nominal GDP is 3242706 Crores and for Q2 3266140 Crores. The nominal growth during Q1 was 8.8% and for Q2 it was 6.0 % and the average is 7.4% for H1 2015-16. In your article, you have assumed it to be 8.2% for H1 2015-16

The disinvestment done so far in the current FY is decent 45,000 crores.

My humble view is that, you tend to come to one conclusion ... sell off BSNL/MTNL etc

Also you are ignoring some other factors like (1) Saving of USD 6 Billion per month in Crude imports, but excise duty hike is about USD 1.25 billion per month. (2) Assume INR depreciation of 10% or USD 600 Million. This leaves a SURPLUS of USD 4 billion per month in the system. (3) The system which benefits is Refining companies like IOC, Reliance etc., Oil Marketing companies, Oil retailers and State Governments.

Hence, just by way of dividends from the related PSUs and Corporate Tax from the system will take care of addressing Fiscal Deficit. Thus, the Finance Ministry is well oiled.

Like (1)

Balakrishnan R

Dec 22, 2015

Mr. Jaitley looks like interested in managing the problem rather than solving it. Clean account would give a clearer picture. But none is interested.

Like (1)

P.Anantharaman

Dec 22, 2015

I am very sure that the present government will only go for the postponement of the problem instead of solving it and showing the true picture.

Like (1)

vip

Dec 22, 2015

There is some flaw in calculation. In budget, they assumed growth rate of GDP(Nominal), @11.5%. While that H1 figure of current FY is Real GDP. So, if we add average inflation of 5%-6%, then Budgeted estimates are matching.

Like (1)
  
Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Mr Jaitley, what is India's 'real' fiscal deficit?". Click here!