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Infosys: Will it meet expectations? - Views on News from Equitymaster
 
 
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  • Jan 8, 2001

    Infosys: Will it meet expectations?

    It seems Infosys is on an African Safari. It has added Oceanic and Standard Trust banks in Nigeria to its customer list. Infosys won both the orders against stiff global competition. This speaks volumes for Infosysí quality. The other important event this quarter was the announcement of a collaboration, with Cisco, to develop state-of-art networking solutions including voice-related applications and optical technologies. Under the terms of the agreement, Infosys will establish a dedicated development center in Bangalore that will grow to 200 people in the first year of operations.

    Revenue mix by projects
    Particulars 1QFY01 2QFY01
    Development 39.5% 43.8%
    Maintenance, including Y2K 25.6% 22.4%
    Re-engineering 7.3% 9.5%
    Other services (including Package implementation,
    consulting, testing & engineering services)
    25.2% 21.6%
    Total services 97.6% 97.3%
    Products 2.4% 2.7%
    Total revenues 100.0% 100.0%
    Internet / E-commerce related 28.7% 31.4%

    The growth in e-commerce will help Infosys maintain itís strong growth rates. The other reasons for growing so strongly are, Infosysí choice of verticals. Infosysí forte is the finance vertical from which it derived 33% of its revenues last quarter. The second vertical that Infosys is focusing on is telecommunications software. This is a technology intensive vertical therefore, the billing rates are higher.

    Particulars 1QFY01 2QFY01
    Insurance, banking & financial services 29.4% 33.9%
    Manufacturing 19.9% 17.5%
    Telecom 18.5% 19.4%
    Retailing 9.0% 7.1%
    Others (including utilities, transportation &
    logistics and other services)
    23.2% 22.1%

    Last quarter (2QFY01), Infosys had announced plans to build a wireless centre of excellence in Bangalore with Nortel. Infosys has a lead when it comes to choosing technology. Its primary focus is distributed systems, which is a strong contender to become the most popularly used technology in the future. According to Red Herring, distributed computing will be one of the hottest technologies in 2001. There is tremendous potential in technologies like embedded software. Also, CAD/CAM is another high technology area that has high entry barriers.

    Revenue mix by technology
    Particulars 1QFY01 2QFY01
    Distributed systems 41.8% 42.8%
    Mainframe/Mid-range 16.5% 12.9%
    Internet 28.7% 31.4%
    Proprietary telecom 6.4% 5.9%
    Others (including CAD/CAM/CAE
    and embedded systems)
    6.6% 7.0%

    Infosys geographic revenue break-up is something of a concern for those who believe that the Indian software sector will suffer due to a slowdown in the US economy. Around 75% of the companyís revenues come from the US. The next destination is Europe (about 18%). The remaining is shared between India and the rest of the world. Infosysí focus now is Japan and the African continent where it is looking to capture major chunks of the market.

    We expect Infosys will grow strongly with major push coming from its e-business and telecommunications software.

    Growth Projections
    Particulars FY00 FY01
    1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3QE
    Sales 12.1% 22.3% 8.7% 22.5% 28.2% 25.5% 18.0%
    Operating profit 22.9% 10.3% 14.6% 18.4% 31.0% 15.4% 16.4%
    Net profit 40.6% 8.4% 12.3% 16.4% 41.3% 21.5% 13.4%

    The expected growth figures for the 3QFY01 (on a QoQ basis) would be 18% for topline and 13% for bottomline. These figures represent the strength of the company. If in 3QFY01 Infosys does achieve a topline growth of 18%, then even if its topline declines by 17% in 4QFY01, Infosys will still achieve a 100% topline growth over FY00.

    Particulars FY00 FY01
    1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3QE
    OPM (excl. Other Inc.) 37.7% 36.7% 40.3% 38.9% 38.7% 39.5% 39.0%
    Tax / PBT 11.7% 12.6% 12.1% 12.3% 10.2% 10.3% 10.0%
    NPM 32.9% 30.2% 31.6% 30.0% 32.7% 34.5% 33.2%
    Cash FDEPS (Rs) 10 11 13 16 21 27 30
    FDEPS (Rs) 9 10 11 13 18 23 26
    P/E (x) FY01E 70

     

     

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