X

Sign up for Equitymaster's free daily newsletter, The 5 Minute WrapUp and get access to our latest Multibagger guide (2017 Edition) on picking money-making stocks.

This is an entirely free service. No payments are to be made.


Download Now Subscribe to our free daily e-letter, The 5 Minute WrapUp and get this complimentary report.
We hate spam as much as you do. Check out our Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use.
Two wheelers: Who is the best? - Views on News from Equitymaster
 
 
  • PRINT
  • E-MAIL
  • FEEDBACK
  • A  A  A
  • Mar 10, 2003

    Two wheelers: Who is the best?

    In the last six months, the performance of two-wheeler stocks on the bourses has been a mixed one. While Bajaj Auto and TVS have held ground, Hero Honda has been on the receiving end. With competitors like TVS and Bajaj Auto emerging strong on the products front, Hero Honda, which has been the market leader in the last decade in the motorcycle segment, has been taken by surprise. We take a brief look at the growth prospects of the two-wheeler segment, individual strengths and weaknesses of players and a valuation comparison.

    While much has been talked about the shift in consumers’ preference in the past, a brief look at the reasons for the same is of significance. For one, the price difference between an entry-level motorcycle and a geared scooter has been on the decline ever since Bajaj Auto decided to go hung-ho on the motorcycles front. Secondly, geared scooter market is also shrinking because of a palpable shift in demand to trendier ungeared scooters. Following the success of Honda's 'Activa', new models have been predominantly focused on this particular category. Last but not the least, the shift has also been significantly led by the fall in interest rates. Consumers currently do not mind shelling out an extra Rs 6,000 for entry-level motorcycle/ungeared scooter as compared to a geared scooter (in installment terms, the rise in largely insignificant).

    Having looked at the industry in brief, the question in investor's mind at the current juncture is which stock to invest in the two-wheeler sector? To make things easy for readers, we have listed a few strengths and weaknesses for each of the players discussed in the article in brief.

    Hero Honda

    Strengths

    1. Access to Honda’s engine technology. Enjoys strong brand equity due to fuel efficiency and as a result, sells twice as much the second player on a monthly basis.

    2. Efficient distribution and after sales service. Large capacity and a cost competitive operation.

    3. A rewarding management with an impressive return on net worth at 69% in FY02.

    Weakness

    1. Expiration of agreement with Honda in FY05. Highly reliant on Honda and so far, has not developed an indigenous model unlike TVS and Bajaj Auto.

    2. Weaker presence in the entry-level motorcycle segment i.e. Rs 30,000 per unit category.

    Bajaj Auto

    Strengths

    1. Has developed the capability to conceptualise and manufacture indigenously without any foreign hand.

    2. Derives benefit from large-scale operations and thus launches models at a competitive price. Has a big balance sheet.

    Weakness

    1. Consistency has not been the hallmark of the company. The ability to foresee trends has been weak. The late entry into the motorcycle segment is an apparent example.

    2. The management has not rewarded shareholders adequately in the past despite large cash surpluses.

    TVS Motor Company

    Strengths

    1. The company is well regarded for its research and development facilities. The success of ‘Victor’ is in itself a vindication.

    2. The management shares wealth with investors.

    Weakness

    1. Historically, TVS has been a regional player with a relatively stronger presence in southern markets.

    2. Has gone overboard at times on the product front. The huge sum spent on ‘Spectra’, an ungeared scooter in the late 1990s is yet to be recovered. Some motorcycle models like ‘Shogun’ and ‘Shaolin’ have failed in the past.

    The table below highlights the snapshot of not only valuations but also the operating efficiency of each player viz. Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and TVS.

    Who is the best?*
    Parameter Units Hero Honda Bajaj Auto TVS
    Current price (Rs) 213.0 500.0 500.0
    Valuation ratios        
    P/E (x) 6.9 9.2 9.0
    Market cap/sales (x) 0.9 1.1 0.4
    EV/EBDITA (x) 5.1 4.0 4.5
    Dividend yield (%) 10.2% 3.8% 4.5%
    Return ratios        
    RONW (%) 57.6% 15.6% 27.7%
    ROCE (%) 55.8% 35.0% 29.6%
    Div. payout (%) 70.0% 14.7% 40.0%
    Operating ratios        
    Operating margins (%) 14.7% 17.5% 9.2%
    Net profit margins (%) 10.2% 12.0% 4.6%
    Avg. realisation/motorcycle (Rs) 29,307 31,000 27,178
    EBDITA/vehicle sold (Rs) 4,525 5,009 2,248
    *FY04E estimates

    Hero Honda seems to be the most attractive of the lot trading at a significantly low P/E multiple and a high dividend yield. As a market leader, Hero Honda is likely to suffer the most from competitive factors. Secondly, there are concerns about the technology sourcing from Honda post FY05. However, considering the superior return ratios, the concerns seem to be overplayed. Bajaj Auto, meanwhile, is expected to enter into an agreement with Kawasaki during the course of the week for sourcing of motorcycle to select export markets. This will drive topline of the company. TVS also has concrete export plans, apart from a series of new launches.

    For more details analysis and projections, please visit our research report section.

     

     

    Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Two wheelers: Who is the best?". Click here!

      
     

    More Views on News

    Tata Motors Ltd: Another Disappointing Quarter, Management fails to Perform! (Quarterly Results Update - Detailed)

    Aug 14, 2017

    Tata Motors Ltd disappoints again for both India and JLR business. Management commentary indicates a slow year ahead.

    Maruti Suzuki Ltd: Bumpy First Quarter. GST dents Margins! (Quarterly Results Update - Detailed)

    Aug 2, 2017

    GST realted cost impacts Margins, Management expects good year ahead.

    Hero Motocorp Ltd: Riding on the Scooters Growth, Maintains Margins! (Quarterly Results Update - Detailed)

    Aug 1, 2017

    Good Recovery in the Scooters market, expects pick up in exports too.

    Bajaj Auto Limited: Recovery in Exports but Domestic Disappoints! (Quarterly Results Update - Detailed)

    Aug 1, 2017

    New Export Markets picking up, Management expects good recovery in domestic Three wheeler market.

    Bajaj Auto Limited: Finishes the Year with Headwinds. Poised for a Recovery Ahead? (Quarterly Results Update - Detailed)

    Jul 6, 2017

    Ends the year on a Flat note. Expects good recovery in the exports market.

    More Views on News

    Most Popular

    Demonetisation Barely Made Any Difference to Tax Collections(Vivek Kaul's Diary)

    Aug 7, 2017

    The data tells us quite a different story from the one the government is trying to project.

    A 'Backdoor' to Multibaggers: It's Like Investing in Asian Paints Ten Years Ago(The 5 Minute Wrapup)

    Aug 10, 2017

    Don't miss these proxy bets on growing companies or in a few years you will be looking back with regret.

    Should You Invest In Bharat-22 ETF? Know Here...(Outside View)

    Aug 8, 2017

    Bharat-22 is one of the most diverse ETFs offered so far by the Government. Know here if you should invest...

    Signs of Life in the India VIX(Daily Profit Hunter)

    Aug 12, 2017

    The India VIX is up 36% in the last week. Fear has gone up but is still low by historical standards.

    7 Financial Gifts For Your Sister This Raksha Bandhan(Outside View)

    Aug 7, 2017

    Raksha Bandhan signifies the brother-sister bond. Here are 7 thoughtful financial gifts for sisters...

    More
    Copyright © Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited. All rights reserved.
    Any act of copying, reproducing or distributing this newsletter whether wholly or in part, for any purpose without the permission of Equitymaster is strictly prohibited and shall be deemed to be copyright infringement.

    LEGAL DISCLAIMER: Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited (hereinafter referred as 'Equitymaster') is an independent equity research Company. Equitymaster is not an Investment Adviser. Information herein should be regarded as a resource only and should be used at one's own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Equitymaster will not be liable for any losses incurred or investment(s) made or decisions taken/or not taken based on the information provided herein. Information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual subscribers. Before acting on any recommendation, subscribers should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek an independent professional advice. This is not directed for access or use by anyone in a country, especially, USA or Canada, where such use or access is unlawful or which may subject Equitymaster or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement. All content and information is provided on an 'As Is' basis by Equitymaster. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Equitymaster does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaims all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied. Equitymaster may hold shares in the company/ies discussed herein. As a condition to accessing Equitymaster content and website, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, available here. The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results.

    SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014, Registration No. INH000000537.

    Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited. 103, Regent Chambers, Above Status Restaurant, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021. India.
    Telephone: +91-22-61434055. Fax: +91-22-22028550. Email: info@equitymaster.com. Website: www.equitymaster.com. CIN:U74999MH2007PTC175407
     

    Become A Smarter Investor In
    Just 5 Minutes

    Multibagger Stocks Guide 2017
    Get our special report, Multibagger Stocks Guide (2017 Edition) Now!
    We will never sell or rent your email id.
    Please read our Terms

    S&P BSE AUTO


    Aug 18, 2017 (Close)

    COMPARE COMPANY

    MARKET STATS