BPCL versus HPCL: Which is better?

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are two of the biggest players in state run oil refining industry. Both the companies are operating under a scenario where the Government policies (regulated petroleum product prices and adhoc subsidy allocation) override the fundamentals. We all know that due to a regulated petroleum product price environment and high costs of crude, these companies incur revenue losses on the sales of regulated petroleum products. However, the Government at the end of year compensates these companies so as to keep their bottomline in black. There are no fixed criteria, timing or formula for such compensation, making it difficult for anyone to estimate financial performance of these companies.

Yet, if one takes a look at the current market valuations and stock price trend, the stock price of BPCL is trading at a premium to HPCL

Both the companies are primarily in the business of refining crude, production and marketing of resultant petroleum products. The following table highlights how companies fare on the key operational parameters.

The 'retail' sensitivity

As seen from the chart below, HPCL has got retail products sales as a higher percentage of the overall market sales. Since the prices of key retail products are regulated in India, HPCL is more sensitive to the factors that can lead to increase in under recoveries. This means HPCL will be more affected (negatively) on account of factors such as high crude prices and depreciating rupee or delay in compensation. Having said that, the upside will be better for HPCL than for BPCL. For example, if there is any increase in petroleum product prices, it should be more positive for HPCL (keeping other factors constant).

As we can see from the chart, when it comes to self reliance in sales generation, BPCL fares better. This is because BPCL on account of its higher refining capacity relies less on other companies (indicated by Products purchased for resales). In terms of volumes, while BPCL has around 47% of its sales generation through products purchased and resold, HPCL relies on other companies' products to the extent of 61%.

As we have mentioned before, fundamentals are hardly reflected in the financials of these companies and ultimately it all boils down to subsidy receipts that these companies receive from the Government or the upstream sector. But that is true for refining business.

Apart from that, the companies have been trying to diversify by entering businesses across and along the vertical chain. For example, these companies have shown interest in City Gas distribution business and invested significantly in Exploration and Production business. It is in this regard that we believe that BPCL beats HPCL hands down .While HPCL has shown no significant discoveries despite considerable investment in Exploration and Production assets, BPCL has made its mark and accreted significant value from its share of reserves in gas resources in Brazil and Mozambique.

Hence, as discussed above, BPCL emerges to be more self reliant, less sensitive to external factors and better diversified along the value chain as compared to HPCL. In the next article, we will compare the companies on further parameters and financials.