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Stock Markets : Time to cheer?

Oct 12, 2002

US investors have given the US markets the thumbs up at least for this week. US markets that have been on a losing run for the past six weeks have seen a respite in the last two trading days of this week. The Dow Jones industrial average and the tech heavy NASDAQ both gained more that 4% yesterday to end the six-week losing spree. What was unique about the rally was that even the volumes are on the higher side, which essentially suggests that investors perceive that markets have bottomed out. Market rally in the last two days seems to be a technical correction more than a bull run.

(Price in $) 5-Oct-02 12-Oct-02 Change
Satyam Infoway 1.6 1.1 -28.8%
ICICI Bank 6.2 5.8 -6.1%
Dr. Reddy's 16.6 17.5 5.3%
Wipro 27.0 30.5 12.8%
VSNL 4.5 4.5 -0.2%
MTNL 4.5 4.7 4.9%
Infosys 53.4 64.8 21.3%
Rediff 0.4 0.4 0.0%
HDFC Bank 13.8 14.1 2.2%
Satyam 8.9 9.3 4.4%
Silverline 0.7 0.7 4.5%

Indian ADRs especially the software ADRs have shown handsome gains with Infosys (21%) leading the pack. Other major gainers include Satyam, Wipro, Dr Reddy’s, MTNL and HDFC Bank. Sify, ICICI Bank and VSNL were the only losers during the week. Sify, which had gained considerably in the last week, has lost by nearly 29% during this week. While ICICI Bank, which had gained last week on the news of a stake sale has lost 6% during this week.

Better than expected quarterly (2QFY03) performance of Infosys and the bullishness in the tech sector yesterday has led to a substantial 21% jump in Infosys’ ADR price on the NASDAQ by the end of the week. Infosys beat analysts expectations the day before by posting a 15% QoQ growth in its topline while its bottomline grew by 4% QoQ. On a YoY basis Infosys has shown a 12% growth in its bottomline. Wipro on the other hand has gone up by nearly 12% on account of expectations of better than expected results.

Indices 5-Oct-02 12-Oct-02 Change
FTSE 3,814 3,953 3.7%
Nikkei 9,028 8,530 -5.5%
BSE 2,929 2,996 2.3%
Hang Seng 9,051 8,966 -0.9%
NASDAQ 1,140 1,210 6.2%
Dow 7,528 7,850 4.3%
Dax 2,715 2,931 8.0%

Global markets too with the exception of Asian markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng have perked up during this weekend. The BSE after falling last week has risen by nearly 2%. This rise was mainly on account of a rally in software stocks. Indian Software companies have reported better than expected results for 2QFY03. Keeping in mind that the investors have already factored in all the earnings warnings any positive news on the economy front in the coming week may cheer the US markets.

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