Software: Stick with the best - Views on News from Equitymaster

Helping You Build Wealth With Honest Research
Since 1996. Try Now

  • MyStocks

MEMBER'S LOGINX

     
Login Failure
   
     
   
     
 
 
 
(Please do not use this option on a public machine)
 
     
 
 
 
  Sign Up | Forgot Password?  

Software: Stick with the best

Nov 26, 2002

In the recent past, the software companies’ (especially the large ones) bagging large projects have enthused the markets. The Sensex and the Nifty have gained significantly on the back of buying in technology majors. So is this a ‘dead-cat-bounce’ case or is it a broader trend? It is most likely the latter. The offshore model has established its credentials as a low cost option and is now well received in western markets. Consequently, US corporates are taking greater interest in offshore development. The result is the large flow of orders. Indian software companies are uniquely propositioned as ‘value-for-money’ services providers and as a result, stand to gain the most from the drive. What could help the industry’s growth is the offshore outsourcing model gaining an even wider acceptance.

Apart from aggressive spending on marketing and establishing a strong presence in markets across the globe, help is coming from unexpected quarters - competition. In an effort to outdo the competition from India, a large number of global IT services majors like IBM are setting up their own offshore development facilities in India. Thus, if the larger IT services firms from the west are adapting the offshore model, the corporates in the west are likely to be even more comfortable with the concept. However, this is a double-edged sword. While at one end the move will certainly help offshore development gain acceptance, this will also mean a lot more competition for the Indian software majors both in terms of business as well as employees. This could result in erosion of margins going forward.

Though we were expecting the large order flows (Software sector report: Prospects), there have been two triggers for the deal flows off late. Firstly, as an initial reaction to the slowdown, companies in the west had just frozen IT spending. Corporates are now taking a more realistic view of the economic situation and have understood that it could be quite sometime before the situation improves. Thus, they going ahead with critical projects and are looking at cutting costs. The offshore model fits their requirements.

Further, the spending that is taking place is directed towards getting more from existing IT systems rather than buying new technology. This means increased demand for services like package implementation, enterprise application integration and maintenance. These areas are traditional strong holds of the Indian IT services companies. Also, a significant part of the IT spend is also directed towards keep existing systems running.

Let us take the example of package implementation. During the IT spending frenzy, a large number of corporations spent significant amounts in buying ERP and CRM packages like SAP and Siebel with a significant number of licenses. However, inspite of buying a large number of licenses, these organisations today are using only a few. But to get more from their existing investments, they would like to implement these packages form as many users as possible. Thus, the spending is directed towards getting more from existing systems rather than buying new software and licenses. And the Indian software companies score over the foreign counterparts in cost arbitrage. Thus, the demand for services like package implementation has been growing swiftly.

What happens when this market gets saturated? There is a even bigger opportunity in waiting. The major software firms are now eyeing the application outsourcing business. Term is very generic and the gamut of services extends from providing software development and maintenance services (what the industry is doing currently) to completely taking over a client’s IT department i.e. shutting down the existing IT departments and handing over the employees to the IT services vendor.

Unlike IT projects which results in improved efficiency of operation and reduced cost of operations over a period of time, the impact of outsourcing is almost immediate. To put things into perspective, many of the mega corporates in the US have IT departments that are larger than most Indian software majors. Thus, the saving potential just in terms of manpower costs is immense. While at one-end human resources costs are saved, at the other, there is substantial saving in terms of infrastructure cost as well.

The Indian software majors are now graduating from providing the software development and maintenance services to gradually taking over employees and IT infrastructure of clients. Infosys has already done that for two of its clients. Wipro too has received a letter of interest from Lehman Brothers that wants to outsource application, maintenance, remote infrastructure management, and BPO services from India. These kinds of deals are typically large in size; sometimes even bigger than US$ 50 m a year over a period of five years.

While the benefits of outsourcing are crystal clear, the biggest impediment is the fact that not everybody is comfortable with the idea of outsourcing mission critical operations. Organisations need to be very comfortable with security of information in the hands of the IT vendor. Added to this is the issue that since the scale of operations is very comprehensive, not many are going to change vendors’ everyday. The business continuity of the vendors is a must. Therefore, corporates are likely to outsource from organisations that are better known, financially stable and large in size.

In the near future, IT stocks are likely to be the centre of attraction due to increased order flows. As usual, there will be a frenzy of buying in information technology stocks. At this point, we would advise the retail investors not to get carried away. As clients look to rationalize vendors demanding all services under one roof, smaller IT firms that do not have specialized skill sets face tough times ahead. Even while selecting the larger IT companies, be very careful about the management’s track record.

This brings us to the question of valuations. Infosys at the current market price of Rs 4,535, is trading at a P/E multiple of 32x FY03E earnings. This suggests that the markets are expecting about 30% growth in earnings going forward. While valuations on the face of it seem on the higher side, they actually might not be. Infosys topline is about US$ 180 m in a quarter (2QFY03) and about US$ 675 m per annum (FY03E). A US$ 50 m contract for a year translates to 7% of the company’s revenues. Assuming that the company gets just two such contracts, 14% is added to the topline. The point we are trying the make is the immense growth opportunity staring into the fact of the IT services sector. Thus, the valuations, though marginally on the higher side, might be justified. However, at such valuations it is wiser to invest with a long-term (three to five year) perspective.


Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Software: Stick with the best ". Click here!

  

More Views on News

MPHASIS at All Time High; BSE IT Index Up 0.8% (Market Updates)

Sep 18, 2020 | Updated on Sep 18, 2020

MPHASIS share price has hit an all time high at Rs 1,393 (up 2.3%). The BSE IT Index is up by 0.8%. Among the top gainers in the BSE IT Index today are MPHASIS (up 2.3%) and ORACLE FINANCIAL (up 0.2%). The top losers include ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES (down 0.4%) and CYIENT (down 0.6%).

MPHASIS at All Time High; BSE IT Index Up 0.6% (Market Updates)

Sep 18, 2020 | Updated on Sep 18, 2020

MPHASIS share price has hit an all time high at Rs 1,374 (up 1.3%). The BSE IT Index is up by 0.6%. Among the top gainers in the BSE IT Index today are MPHASIS (up 1.3%) and ORACLE FINANCIAL . The top losers include PERSISTENT SYSTEMS and CYIENT (down 0.4%).

QUESS CORP. LTD Share Price Up by 5%; BSE IT Index Up 0.5% (Market Updates)

Sep 18, 2020 | Updated on Sep 18, 2020

QUESS CORP. LTD share price is trading up by 5% and its current market price is Rs 455. The BSE IT is up by 0.5%. The top gainers in the BSE IT Index is QUESS CORP. LTD (up 5.0%). The top losers are INFOSYS (down 0.1%) and TATA ELXSI (down 0.1%).

MINDTREE at All Time High; BSE IT Index Up 0.1% (Market Updates)

Sep 18, 2020 | Updated on Sep 18, 2020

MINDTREE share price has hit an all time high at Rs 1,290 (up 0.5%). The BSE IT Index is up by 0.1%. Among the top gainers in the BSE IT Index today are MINDTREE (up 0.5%) and ORACLE FINANCIAL (up 0.1%). The top losers include L&T TECHONOLOGY and INFOSYS (down 0.2%).

More Views on News

Most Popular

How the 8-Year Cycle Can Help Identify Multibaggers (Fast Profits Daily)

Sep 11, 2020

This is how you can apply the greed and fear cycle in the market to pick stocks.

I Recommended this Stock over Page Industries because it's Relevant to Doubling Your Income (Profit Hunter)

Sep 7, 2020

Things are not often what they seem in the market and how you can take advantage of this.

The NASDAQ Whale Could Harm Your Portfolio (Fast Profits Daily)

Sep 7, 2020

The discovery of Softbank pushing up prices on the NASDAQ will cause volatility in the market. Stay alert!

This Could Be the Best September for Auto Stocks (Profit Hunter)

Sep 11, 2020

Here's why I think this month could be a great for auto stocks.

More

Covid-19 Proof
Multibagger Stocks

Covid19 Proof Multibaggers
Get this special report, authored by Equitymaster's top analysts now!
We will never sell or rent your email id.
Please read our Terms

S&P BSE IT


Sep 18, 2020 03:37 PM

COMPARE COMPANY

MARKET STATS