Free Reports

A Private Chat with Alan Greenspan

Jan 20, 2017


BALTIMORE - The Financial Times is wrong about most everything.

The Davos consensus, too, errs regularly. So does former US treasury secretary Larry Summers.

And when former Democratic senator William Proxmire revealed Alan Greenspan's economic forecasting record in the latter's confirmation hearings, it was a long list uninterrupted by success.

And now, all are agreed: 'Trumpismo' won't deliver the goods.

Sugar Rush

These usually unreliable sources may be on to something.

But Greenspan's views - expressed in a private meeting with us in our office here in Baltimore on Tuesday - are closest to our own: Donald Trump won't even get the truck started.

The Financial Times quotes industry leaders in Davos calling the immediate effects of Trumpismo a 'sugar rush'.

In the same paper, Summers predicts a 'bitter comedown from Trump's sugar high' and that 'disappointment and disapproval will set in within a year'.

You know our thoughts already: It's not Trump's fault. This is an economy that has been corrupted by the fake dollar and the Fed's EZ money policies.

Like a hothouse flower, it can't survive outside the strange environment of artificially low interest rates, market backstops, and bailouts.

Take these away - which would happen in a real boom - and the whole thing dies, like a poinsettia suddenly taken outside into the winter snow.

At our meeting, Greenspan seemed eager to talk about it. 'Aren't you going to ask me about the last ten weeks?' he prompted.

Amid all the mumbly-fumbly from the former Fed chief (he hasn't lost his famous talent for obfuscation) was this clear and unequivocal insight: 'It won't happen.'

Greenspan was referring to investors' fondest hope and their most impossible dream: that the president-elect will reverse three decades of declining GDP growth, falling productivity, and drooping middle-class wages by sheer willpower.

Trump, if you believe the press, is supposed to cut taxes and boost spending, thus touching off a Reagan Redux...the morning after the 'Morning in America'.

  The Fight Against BLACK MONEY
Here's What It Means For YOU And YOUR Money...
  The Fight Against BLACK MONEY Modi's move to scrap the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 note could impact YOU more significantly than you think.

We are talking impact on...

YOUR Investments. YOUR Property. Effectively, YOUR Wealth

It's absolutely critical for you to understand completely, and accurately, how this impacts you.

And that's why, we are releasing this special report, which you can claim for FREE. No strings attached.

Go ahead, grab your copy now...And be among the first to know what Modi's fight against black money really means for you...

Download This Special Report Now. It's Free.

As soon as you sign up, You will start recieving Vivek Kaul's Diary,
a Free-for-life newsletter from Equitymaster

NO-SPAM PLEDGE - We will NEVER rent, sell, or give away your e-mail address to anyone for any reason. You can unsubscribe from Vivek Kaul's Diary with a few clicks. Please read our Privacy Policy & Terms Of Use.

Food Fight

'I spent a lot of years in DC,' Greenspan explained to us.

At 90, he still lives there...still consults and socialises with the swamp critters...and still keeps his ears open.

Once the Trump team confronts the reality of the federal budget, he says - with $1 trillion-per-year deficits as far as the eye can see - and it gets into the bitter infighting in Congress, it will realise that it may never pass the legislation it promises. Not quickly. Not easily.

'It will be another Congressional food fight,' President Reagan's budget director David Stockman replied.

David, who now writes the Contra Corner newsletter, is an old friend of Greenspan's from back in the early days of the Reagan administration.

The memory of these 'Congressional food fights' was so vivid in David's mind, it was as though he still had gravy stains on his lapels and Jell-O in his hair.

'There is no way the Tea Party caucus is going to rubber-stamp a series of debt-ceiling increases,' he argued. (David was the one who briefed Reagan on budget issues before and after his victory over Jimmy Carter.)

'It just won't happen.'

'This is a non-sustainable outlook. Trump may have some magic formula he hasn't divulged to anybody. But I don't see where we go from here,' added Greenspan gravely.

Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

Recent Articles

India's New Subprime Home Loan Problem January 18, 2018
All in all, there are no reasons to worry on this front as of now. But this is a problem, which needs to be contained in the bud, to avoid future problems.
Stocks Could Fall 80% From Here January 18, 2018
First came the "Black Monday" crash of 1987. Then, there was the aforementioned collapse of the Nasdaq in 2000. Finally, the crisis of 2008-09... this is next.
A Crash is Overdue January 17, 2018
Things are heating up on Bill's ranch... today's diary reads like a racy paperback thriller.
Why Income Tax Will Stay January 16, 2018
The government has got no strong reasons to scrap individual income tax, as has been suggested time and again.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "A Private Chat with Alan Greenspan". Click here!