Free Reports

Trump: No Match for the Deep State

Jan 24, 2017

27

BALTIMORE - The inauguration on? Friday proceeded with all the pomp and ceremony of a coronation, a university commencement, or a mafia funeral.

No American who cares deeply about the future of his country could have watched it without laughing.

Solemn Ceremony

All the great and the good were assembled...

The Establishment, the elite, the insiders...the generals, the politicians, the captains of industry and commerce, and representatives of all three branches of government...gathered in solemn ceremony to witness the swearing in of their new chieftain.

We saw the happy new crowd paying its respects to the outgoing gang; we saw the old faces creased with worry and regret. And there were new dresses to be admired...and all the glitterati of the Deep State, including the wives, husbands, and children of the powerful.

So seriously did commentators take the event that we half expected to see a hearse coming down Pennsylvania Avenue.

State funerals can be touching. Moving. And satisfying. The man they honour has done all the damage he can do. (People who humbly and honestly tend to their own affairs do not get state funerals.)

The inauguration of Donald J Trump was very different. It was the beginning, not the end.

In a way, our job would be easier if Hillary had won. The target would be more familiar, more predictable, and stationary. But the new president promises to be vastly more fun. And who knows what will happen?

Of course, that is our job, too...to look ahead...to try to understand what is going on and see, through the glass, darkly, where it may lead.

'Ride, si sapis,' said the Roman poet Martial. Laugh...if you are wise. Here at the Diary, that is the best we can do.

Advertisement
  The Fight Against BLACK MONEY
Here's What It Means For YOU And YOUR Money...
 
   
  The Fight Against BLACK MONEY Modi's move to scrap the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 note could impact YOU more significantly than you think.

We are talking impact on...

YOUR Investments. YOUR Property. Effectively, YOUR Wealth

It's absolutely critical for you to understand completely, and accurately, how this impacts you.

And that's why, we are releasing this special report, which you can claim for FREE. No strings attached.

Go ahead, grab your copy now...And be among the first to know what Modi's fight against black money really means for you...

Download This Special Report Now. It's Free.


As soon as you sign up, You will start recieving Vivek Kaul's Diary,
a Free-for-life newsletter from Equitymaster

NO-SPAM PLEDGE - We will NEVER rent, sell, or give away your e-mail address to anyone for any reason. You can unsubscribe from Vivek Kaul's Diary with a few clicks. Please read our Privacy Policy & Terms Of Use.
 

Bad Start

The ceremony got off to a bad start, thanks to the inimitable Senator Charles Schumer.

They should issue 'trigger warnings' for speeches like that.

An inauguration is supposed to bring the nation together. It is supposed to heal the wounds of a hard-fought campaign and bring out, as Lincoln put it, 'the better angels of our nature'. Americans are supposed to unite behind the new guy and give him a chance.

We don't know what Schumer had in mind. But his choice of illustration caused such fierce diaphragm contractions, we thought we might break a rib.

He quoted a letter from one of Lincoln's victims, a dim Yankee on his way to invade the sovereign state of Virginia and murder its defenders. Alas, the Virginians were sharper shots. The boy was killed in the First Battle of Bull Run.

How's that for encouraging unity!

Then there was Mr Trump himself...still among the quick and capable of mischief.

Donald Who?

Out in the cheap seats were the fans - the loyal spectators convinced that they were at some critical turning point in history.

'I was there when Donald Trump was sworn in,' they will tell their grandchildren.

'Donald who?' the kids will ask. Then a flicker of awareness will cross their faces like a shooting star in the night sky.

'Oh...Wasn't he the one who was impeached?'

'No... He was the one who made America great again.'

'How did he do that, granddad?'

'I was just joking. He was a total loser.'

That is not a prediction, by the way. We don't know what will happen. But our conviction as to how it will happen is strengthening. We can imagine two possibilities.

First, there is a very slim chance that President Trump is sincere in his stated promise to go head-to-head with the Deep State, and that his entourage of Wall Street bankers and military brass will back him.

In his address, the new leader stressed that things are going to be different: The Trump administration will operate a government at the service of 'the people' rather than the insiders.

But serving 'the people' means cutting the insiders out of their cozy deals. And if the president pursues this course of action, it will lead to showdowns...power struggles...and the president's inevitable defeat.

Power Struggle

Mr Trump cannot win a power struggle with the Deep State any more than Mr Greenspan could (if he had tried, which he didn't).

He needs the generals and the arms dealers. He needs the cronies. He needs the elite. If he wants to rule, he must share power with these insiders. If he does not and there is a real fight for control, he will lose.

Even if the president does not consciously 'go to war' with the Deep State, he could simply step on too many Establishment toes.

Either way, the different warring factions of the Deep State would make common cause to get rid of him. His long career is a series of impulsive mistakes, loose talk, and lucky breaks, stitched together with braggadocio and a flair for vulgarity.

That makes him vulnerable to his own worst friend - himself - and to his enemies in the Establishment.

Congress may impeach him after damning information (fake news?) surfaces. Or he may simply be isolated, unable to enact legislation, push the bureaucracy to do his bidding, or get anyone to attend his parties.

There are many moving parts in the Deep State. Mr Trump can try to pit one against another. Most are inconsequential; he won't really care if the academic elite or the milk producers turn against him. But he needs broad support in Congress.

It is said that he has a 'Republican majority' in the House and the Senate ready to do his bidding. This is not true. What he has is a pack of clever, self-seeking politicians sharpening their long knives...and waiting for him to turn his back.

The other possibility - substantially more probable - tomorrow. Instead of trying to serve 'the people' - a lost cause, in our opinion - Mr Trump could serve himself...and succeed.

Regards,
BILL BONNER Founder, Agora Inc
Bill


Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

Recent Articles

Get 'India's Big Government' at Just Rs 199 Now October 18, 2017
Vivek's latest book is now available at a rare discount. Grab a copy now.
Our Plan to Save the Ranch October 18, 2017
How to increase fertility in the kingdom of cows.
Nobody Honks in Bali - Lessons for Indian Tourism October 17, 2017
Things India can learn to promote tourism from this small island.
We Rode Out... Unarmed October 17, 2017
Money is the tape measure for the carpenter economy.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Trump: No Match for the Deep State". Click here!

2 Responses to "Trump: No Match for the Deep State"

DDMisra

Jan 24, 2017

Bill Bonner's "Trump: No Match for the Deep State" of 24th January 2017 seems very similar to what is happening to Modi in India. The fate of demonetisation of one example.

Like 

manoj

Jan 24, 2017

last sentence gotta be true. sooner or later he is gonna realise that he cant run the country and even more than that the govt, like a business empire. even if he tries to remain true to his words and spirit of his words he may at the most be successful in bruising some egos.
i dont know if bill follows indian politics but we may introduce him to Arvind Kejriwal. much more sophisticated as a politician but trump can see and may be learn how his hands have been tied by the politician, big business, beureucrate nexus.
i just wish trump effects some real changes or may be dents the nexus or the deep state as bill chooses to call it.

Like 
  
Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Trump: No Match for the Deep State". Click here!