Why is Arvind Panagariya Cherry Picking Data to Show Modi Govt in Good Light? - Vivek Kaul's Diary
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Why is Arvind Panagariya Cherry Picking Data to Show Modi Govt in Good Light?

May 20, 2016

28

The Narendra Modi government will be completing two years next week. Given this, currently there is a lot of propaganda on. The finance minister Arun Jaitley has been giving interviews highlighting the good performance of the government.

The Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, economist Arvind Panagariya, has also been writing columns in newspapers talking about the good show of the Modi government. There is nothing wrong with this. It is the right of every government to highlight what it thinks is the good work that it has done, in the best possible way.

And as long as governments don't place full page advertisements in newspapers, highlighting their achievements by wasting taxpayer's money, I have nothing against the entire idea of the government talking about its good work. Please talk about it as much as you want to, but don't waste my taxes in the process.

One of the points that Panagariya made in a column in the Business Standard was about village electrification. The general impression is that the government has done good work on this front.

As he wrote: "In power, the government has already electrified 6,816 villages in the last two years compared with 5,189 villages in the three years before that."

Take a look at the following table. It gives the number of villages electrified every year, over the last decade.

Years Villages electrified
2005-2006 9,819
2006-2007 28,706
2007-2008 9,301
2008-2009 12,056
2009-2010 18,374
2010-2011 18,306
2011-2012 7,934
2012-2013 2,587
2013-2014 1,197
2014-2015 1,405
2015-2016 7,128*

Source: Annual Report Rural Electrification Corporation 2014-2015
* Press release put out by Press Information Bureau dated April 4, 2016

Let's run the numbers for what Panagariya said. In the last two years 8,533 villages (7128 villages in 2015-2016 and 1405 villages in 2014-2015) have been electrified. Panagariya says 6,866 villages. In the three years before that 11,718 villages were electrified (1197 in 2013-2014, 2587 in 2012-2013 and 7934 in 2011-2012) which is more than the villages electrified in the last two years and not less as Pangariya suggests.



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So where did Panagariya get his numbers from? I think he has gotten the years mixed up while making the calculation. In the years 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, a total of 5,189 villages were electrified. This is the same as Panagariya's number. But Panagariya has essentially suggested years 2011-2012, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014. This is incorrect.

I guess basically what he wanted to compare was the performance of the government on the village electrification front in 2015-2016, with that of previous three years, i.e. 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. In 2015-2016, the government electrified 7128 villages, which is close to the 6,816 number that Panagariya offers, for the last two years. This difference could be primarily because end of the year data keeps getting updated I guess.

The Modi government has put up a decent show as far village electrification in 2015-2016 is concerned. More villages were electrified in 2015-2016, than were electrified in the three years before that. This is what Panagariya I guess wanted to say. But he got the years mixed up.

Nevertheless, let's look at the performance on the village electrification front between 2005-2006 and 2011-2012. In each of the years more villages were electrified than in 2015-2016. In 2005-2006, 28,706 villages were electrified, which is four times the number last year. Hence, Panagariya essentially cherry-picked data in order to show the Modi government and the power minister Piyush Goyal in good light.

Also, as I have mentioned in the past, if we keep comparing the economic performance of the Modi government to the second half of the second term of the Manmohan Singh government, things are definitely going to look better. Nevertheless, that is too low a benchmark to set. Anything will look better in comparison to those years.

Further, during the year 2014-2015, the Modi government governed for to ten months. During the course of the year only 1,405 villages were electrified. This can't be totally held against the government because every government needs time to start operating. Also, given the fact that the number of villages electrified in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 were very low, some time would have been needed to get the system going again.

It needs to be mentioned here that as the number of villages to be electrified comes down, it becomes more and more difficult to electrify the villages and the same pace cannot be maintained. If one takes this factor into account, electrifying more than 7,000 villages in a single year, is not a bad performance.

But trying to pass it off as something extraordinary is really not done.

Discslosure: The basic idea for this column came after reading Amitabh Dubey's column Arvind Panagariya Spins an Infrastructure Tale on Chunauti.org

Postscript: I will be taking a break from writing the Diary. Will be back to writing towards the end of this month.

Vivek Kaul is the Editor of the Diary and The Vivek Kaul Letter. Vivek is a writer who has worked at senior positions with the Daily News and Analysis (DNA) and The Economic Times, in the past. He is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. The latest book in the trilogy Easy Money: The Greatest Ponzi Scheme Ever and How It Is Set to Destroy the Global Financial System was published in March 2015. The books were bestsellers on Amazon. His writing has also appeared in The Times of India, The Hindu, The Hindu Business Line, Business World, Business Today, India Today, Business Standard, Forbes India, Deccan Chronicle, The Asian Age, Mutual Fund Insight, Wealth Insight, Swarajya, Bangalore Mirror among others.

Disclaimer: The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

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11 Responses to "Why is Arvind Panagariya Cherry Picking Data to Show Modi Govt in Good Light?"

Ganesan

May 27, 2016

An appointee of the government tries to paint the same government in good light. What a surprise? There's no news here, let's move on. I'm happy as long as the topic is development instead of jingoistic crap.

Like 

SJ

May 23, 2016

This is the reason I like reading your posts. Good, unbiased analysis as opposed to views or opinions. Sends across the right message!

Like 

purushothamrao

May 20, 2016

we have to appresiate our P M sri modi and his govt for whatever they are doing amidst lot of opposition by congis and kejriwal etc the results of election proved that they are aon right path pl dont unnecessarily criticize like a cong person it is only half term MODI govt has completed have patience till end of their term to take stock of performance of his govt pl be unbiasec in your comments lest we will lose confidence on your articles in this column

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T V Ramaswamy

May 20, 2016

I am glad that people like you are talking aloud with data and in a fair manner. Congrats and good luck to all of us.

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P V Samuel

May 20, 2016

Sir,
I am very glad that Mr. Vivek Kaul has given a good analytical matter-of-fact report on Rural Electrification. I regularly read his piercing analyses carefully. While the Govt. should endeavour to better the performance and report, let it not be slighting another through bad arithmetic and fool the people of the country. Kindly bring out such analysis including his past reports through leading commercial news papers like ET & FE for the benefit of its readers.
Pl keep up such excellent works.

Like 

LOGAN

May 20, 2016

Electrifying 7000 villages is a good more. I appreciate the efforts of the incumbent Government in this achievement.

India has about 700,000 villages which were electrified by the British and the previous Governments. But, they did not tom tom at all.

Despite this, over 30% of the population do not have access to electricity yet.

We have three Arvinds i.e., Arvind Panagariya, Arvind Subramaniam and Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, all of them are skilled in blowing the trumpet, aloud.

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Dr. K. S. Ananda Kumar

May 20, 2016

Certanly, I agree with your remarks. How can we bring the contents to the notice of oue beloved PM - Narendra Modi? There are other instances also, like the episode of Mr. Rajan, RBI. Please find out a way so that our PM knows what is happening and will rectify the situation. I don't know whether 'Mann ki Bath' is useful. Regards,
I am sorry to inform you that my computer skills are poor.

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AB Pereira

May 20, 2016

The question that you are asking, Vivek, and the other favourite question these days - why BJP is desperate to remove Raghuram Rajan from RBI Chairman post, has the same answer! BJP wants to compromise on every autonomous body/post and make them puppets (just like what Congress has been doing over the years).
RRR has refused to budge, but Arvind P. and the other Arvind the Finance Secy, are the ones mighty pleased to please their bosses and ready to trumpet anything without substance. They are even ready to revise the formulae or indicators, like they did for GDP formula, just to beat their drums. Wasn't this what brought decline to NDA-version 1.0 in 2004 - the India shining mantra?
BJP is clearly a dry trumpet without much to boast on performance - just see how it is blowing a trumpet with just one state win out of 5 assemblies, getting only 4 seats out of 700+ in 3 states and one UT, still stating Congress Mukt Bharat when there is hardly anything to differentiate between C and B in terms of number of seats won or vote share in these 5 states. BJP is repeatedly proving, notwithstanding its public drama, that it is the other side of the coin with Congress.

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varun naidu

May 20, 2016

I've been reading your take on the current governments performance through whatever you've written in the daily newsletter. Can't help but notice that you're not too enthused about them. Of course you do say it politely in the name of most so- called liberals... What comes to mind is the question. What would you rather have them do? Not talk about their work? Not benchmark against the past (the whole world works that way)? Or perhaps not do ANY work? Or maybe just hand over the reigns to MMS and SG again?

Enjoy the break...looks like you needed it. I sure do.

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SHANKARAIAH EGGIDI

May 20, 2016

Enjoy the break! Vivek

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