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Janet Yellen the Brave?

Sep 23, 2016

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  • The road was long but I ran it
    There's a fire in my heart and you fan it
    If there's one fool for you then I am it
    I've one thing to say, and that's
    Dammit Janet, I love you
    Rocky Horror Picture Show, 'Dammit Janet'

OUZILLY, France - First, some travel advice...

A niece was visiting from North Carolina. She left this morning for Paris.

We warned her, 'Paris is the biggest tourist draw in the world. Naturally, it also has a thriving industry that preys on tourists.

'People will come up to you and say: 'Do you speak English?' You'll be eager to help them. Just say 'non', and keep walking. Or they'll pretend to find a gold ring on the sidewalk, just behind you. They'll ask if it is yours. Just keep walking.

'Watch out for gypsies. They work in groups. One will bump into you or distract you, while another picks your pocket.

'Oh...and don't smile. If you smile, they'll take you for a tourist, especially an American.

'The French don't smile at strangers. They think they only have a limited supply of smiles; they're not going to waste them on people they don't know.'

Largest Theft in History

Now, back to our beat...

As expected, Ms Yellen smiled yesterday, announcing no change to the Fed's extraordinary policies.

For the last eight years, she has been aiding and abetting the largest theft in history.

Thanks to ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing), every year, about $300 billion is transferred from largely middle-class savers to largely better-off speculators, financial asset owners, and the biggest borrowers during that period - corporations and the government.

The financial press, nevertheless, finds something vaguely heroic about enabling the grandest larceny ever. Bloomberg:

  • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen braved mounting opposition inside and outside the U.S. central bank and delayed an interest-rate increase again to give the economy more room to run.

The US economy is barely limping along. As we showed last week, when you adjust nominal GDP growth by a more accurate measure of inflation - David Stockman's 'Flyover CPI' - you see that the economy is actually in recession.

Room to run? It is backing up!

Bloomberg continues its brain-dead coverage:

  • While agreeing that the case for a rate rise had strengthened, Yellen on Wednesday argued that it made sense to put off a move for now amid signs that discouraged Americans who dropped out of the labor market are returning and looking for work.

    'The economy has a little more room to run than might have been previously thought,' Yellen told a press conference in Washington after the Fed's two-day meeting, as she explained the decision to keep rates on hold. 'That's good news.'

Voodoo Trade

We listened to Ms Yellen's remarks. She sounded like a well-trained functionary, a technician.

Lots of economic mumbo-jumbo. Academic phrases. Latinate words and passive sentences.

She might have made a good doctor, we thought. Or maybe a decent metallurgist. In an honest metier, she might have been able to hold her head up high.

Instead, the poor woman is condemned to ply her voodoo trade, pretending that it is based on science, and feigning that it improved the economy.

Pity the economist without a sense of humour...

His head must ache when he hears Ms Yellen talk. His heart must break when he sees his profession brought to ridicule by its most prominent practitioners. His gloom must deepen into a profound darkness, as he watches the world's No. 1 economy be manipulated by nincompoops and scoundrels.

Worse, if he expects any kind of career, fame, or fortune - he must join them!

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Horror Show

Meanwhile, in the real world, Jim Clifton, head of the Gallup poll group, sees a horror show.

Over the glorious years in which the Bernanke-Yellen team has managed the economy, he notes, the percentage of Americans who reply to his polls saying they are in the middle or upper-middle classes has fallen from 61% to 51%.

The adult population of the US is about 250 million people. So, that's 25 million people who have slipped out of the middle class during the time when the dream team has been engineering a 'recovery'.

These are people whose 'lives have crashed,' says Clifton:

  • What the media is missing is that these 25 million people are invisible in the widely reported 4.9% official U.S. unemployment rate.

    Let's say someone has a good middle-class job that pays $65,000 a year. That job goes away in a changing, disrupted world, and his new full-time job pays $14 per hour - or about $28,000 a year.

    That devastated American remains counted as 'full-time employed' because he still has full-time work - although with drastically reduced pay and benefits. He has fallen out of the middle class and is invisible in current reporting.

These 'invisible Americans', as Clifton calls them, pay a 'disastrous' emotional toll. They see themselves falling behind.

Whom do they blame? Themselves? Mexicans? Obama?

One person they don't blame is the one who has done them the most harm - Janet Yellen.

Holding down interest rates, she stole away the most important bit of information in the system - the cost of capital.

It was as though she took the stars from the night sky and hid away the needle from the compass; the economy was soon lost at sea.

Real capital investment declined. The real median household wages dropped back to 1973 levels. Productivity growth - the thing that lifts real wages - went into its longest slump since 1979.

Bottom Rung

Hardest hit were those marginal workers struggling to grab the lower rungs of the ladder.

All of a sudden, the rungs were coated in the Fed's grease.

Between 1947 and 1970, this group - the bottom fifth of the US population - enjoyed a 3% annual growth in real disposable income.

As the EZ money regime of the 21st century worked its mischief, these annual increases disappeared.

The top 1%, however, had only gotten half the annual rates of increase between 1947 and 1970 of the lowest group, just 1.7% a year.

But after 2000, it made up for it - with income growth of 2.3% a year.

Dammit Janet, says the chorus of 'one percenters', we love you.

Regards,
BILL BONNER Founder, Agora Inc
Bill


Bill Bonner is the President & Founder of Agora Inc, an international publisher of financial and special interest books and newsletters.

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2 Responses to "Janet Yellen the Brave?"

lovepareek

Sep 23, 2016

SIR, U WRITE BUTFLLY. A GENIUS. I HAVE LEARNT MANY CONCEPTS ONLY BY READING U. KINDLY GIVE NEXT ARTICLE ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF WHAT THE HECK IS ZERO RATE INTEREST REGIME ? HOW DO OLD PEOPLE SURVIVE SINCE THERE IS NO INTEREST (e.g., IN INDIA OLD PEOPLE SURVIVES ON INTEREST THEY GET ON INCOME ACCUMULATED OVER THE YEARS), etc. ? BASICALLY, I M CONFUSED ..... LIKE SAME AS IN WHAT THE HELL IS THIS "ISLAMIC BANKING" . IS THIS SOME KINDA STUNT ???

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parimal shah

Sep 23, 2016

Why this flip-flop?
Just declare a rise of 0.05% rate hike for next may be 6 or 10 meetings of the FOMC.
The volatility from the world market due to rate hike hype will disappear.
Just as developed markets expect clarity and consistency of policy the emerging markets also need same clarity and consistency; and not flip-flop.
This may reduce importance of Ms. Yellen but that can be ignored.

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