|»Vivek Kaul's Diary|
Why Brexit Will be a Non Event
23 JUNE 2016
What would the global effect of Brexit be? Entirely uninteresting it seems. In her column in the Washington Post yesterday, Catherine Rampell asked Moody's Analytics to model the result on the US economy for her. As you can see from the resulting chart below, nothing much happens in the US.
The lines for GDP with and without it separate slightly in the near term but move comfortably back together by 2020. No suggestion of much in the way of upheaval there (despite the fact that the headline refers to Brexit as a "terrible economic shock").
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This is simple stuff making a simple point: the single market matters to the rest of the EU just as much as it does to the UK (arguably rather more). So a post Brexit deal will, I think be fast and pretty straightforward. It isn't in anyone's interests for it not to be.
That might not be something that the scaremongers on all this can bring themselves to grasp (they want it to be way more complicated) but it is something that S&P point out in its report on the matter: Brexit misery for Ireland they say, only happens "in the unlikely event that an excited UK would not reach new terms on trade access to the EU after its departure."
Assuming everyone behaves sensibly we'll be in EFTA before we know it, and - financially at least - Brexit will turn out to be a total non-event.
Please Note: This article was first published in Money Week on June 22, 2016.
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