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Sensex Slumps 1,400 Points, Nifty Cracks Below 14,400; IndusInd Bank & SBI Fall 8%
Mon, 12 Apr 09:30 am

Asian stock markets are trading on a cautious note today as investors wait to see if US earnings can justify sky-high valuations.

The Nikkei is trading down by 0.5% while the Hang Seng is down 1.1%. The Shanghai Composite is trading lower by 0.8%.

In US stock markets, Wall Street indices climbed to another record on Friday as investors shrugged off concerns over inflation and focused on prospects for an economic rebound.

A modest sell-off of US Treasuries, triggered by concerns over higher-than-expected readings on US and Chinese producer prices, faded by late-afternoon, as the yield on the 10-year note finished at 1.67%.

The S&P 500 closed above 4,100 and posted its third-straight weekly rally - the longest winning streak since October.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9%, a record of its own.

Back home, Indian share markets have opened deep in the red, following the trend on SGX Nifty. Benchmark indices tanked over 2.5% on record Covid-19 cases and worries of another lockdown.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), HDIL and Lloyds Metals and Energy are scheduled to announce their quarterly earnings today.

The BSE Sensex is trading down by 1,395 points. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty is trading lower by 431 points.

Infosys is among the top gainers today. IndusInd Bank, on the other hand, is among the top losers today.

The BSE Mid Cap index slumped 3.5%. The BSE Small Cap index is trading lower by 3.2%.

Barring IT stocks, all sectoral indices are trading on a negative note with stocks in the realty sector, power sector and banking sector witnessing most of the selling pressure.

Shares of Metropolis Healthcare and Cipla hit their 52-week highs today.

The rupee is trading at 74.92 against the US$.

Speaking of stock markets, in the latest weekly Momentum Moves video series, Brijesh Bhatia talks about the Gas Distribution index (GDI). This is an index we have created.

As per Brijesh, the GDI is indicating gas distribution stocks can be in favour for the next couple of weeks. Traders and investors should definitely have gas distribution stocks in their portfolios for the short-term.

Tune in to the below video to find out more:

In news from the commodity space, gold prices fell today as data showing very strong readings for US inflation and a faster economic rebound bolstered Treasury yields, weighing on the safe-haven metal.

Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 46,628 per 10 grams.

Meanwhile, investors infused over Rs 69 billion in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2020-21. That is four times the amount that was infused in the preceding fiscal.

Reportedly, this increase has been spurred by heightened risk and uncertainty sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic.

This also marks the second consecutive year of inflow. Before that, gold ETFs were witnessing outflows since 2013-14, as shown in data from Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).

Investors put in Rs 69.2 billion in 14 gold-linked ETFs, much higher than Rs 16.1 billion invested in 2019-20.

Prior to that, gold ETFs witnessed outflows of Rs 4.1 billion in 2018-19, Rs 8.4 billion in 2017-18, Rs 7.8 billion in 2016-17, Rs 9 billion in 2015-16, Rs 14.8 billion in 2014-15 and Rs 22.9 billion in 2013-14.

Investor appetite for paper gold, especially for sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) also grew to record levels in FY21. The value of SGBs subscribed by investors was Rs 160.5 billion, the highest in any financial year since the bonds were launched by the NDA government in 2016.

By value, the SGB subscription in FY21 accounted for 62% of the total Rs 256.9 billion invested by public in the bonds over the past five fiscals.

Note that gold prices have fallen as much as 20% from the recent highs. Prices have fallen from a high of Rs 56,191 in August 2020 to a low of Rs 44,150 in the first week of March 2021.

That said, let us look at how lucrative has gold been as a long-term investment in India.

The chart below shows the annual returns on gold over the last 15 years...


As you can see, barring just two years - 2013 and 2015, gold has delivered positive returns in 13 of the last 15 years.

Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains one of the best performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Many gold bulls are doubting the long term potential of gold as an investment.

On Equitymaster's first YouTube live stream, India's # trader Vijay Bhambwani spoke about why gold is a great investment.

In this session, Vijay spoke about the fundamental reasons why the price of gold (and silver) will rise. Vijay discussed the major events like inflation, interest rates, etc and how they are impacting gold.

Vijay also spoke about the right way to buy and hold gold, as well as the things you should watch out for.

You can watch the video here: It's a Great Time to Buy Gold

Moving on to stock specific news...

Infosys is among the top buzzing stocks today.

Infosys on Sunday said its board will decide on a buyback programme, along with March quarter earnings, in its next board meeting.

As per reports, the IT major is likely to report a flat-to-negative sequential growth in March quarter profit on a 2-4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise in sales.

"The Board of the Company will consider a proposal for buyback of fully paid-up equity shares of the Company at its meeting to be held on April 14, 2021," the company said in a regulatory filing.

The company's board is considering a share buyback proposal that would be the Bengaluru-based IT services company's third in less than five years.

The size of the buyback could be Rs 100-120 billion, and at a price of Rs 1,650-1,670 apiece.

Infosys returned one-third of its cash, or Rs 130 billion to shareholders in 2017-18 at Rs 1,150 apiece. In 2019, there was a Rs 82-6 billion buyback at Rs 800 apiece.

In the last one year, Infosys has paid two dividends, aggregating to Rs 21.5 per share.

As of December 2020, Infosys's balance sheet showed consolidated cash and current investments worth about Rs 331.6 billion. The market regulator's rules allow up to 25% of a company's net worth to be utilised during a buyback programme.

At Friday's close, the company had a market capitalisation of over Rs 6.1 lakh crore, making it the fourth most valued company in India after Reliance Industries, TCS and HDFC Bank.

Since 2017, among the IT leaders listed in India, TCS and Wipro both had three buybacks each, while HCL Technologies had two.

Infosys share price has opened the day up by 1.3%.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

Read the latest Market Commentary


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