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Indian Indices Trade Marginally Lower; Consumer Durables Stocks Witness Selling
Tue, 4 Jul 11:30 am

Share markets in India are presently trading marginally lower. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the consumer durables sector and auto sector witnessing maximum selling pressure. Energy stocks are trading in the green.

The BSE Sensex is trading down 21 points (down 0.1%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down by 7 points (down 0.1%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading flat. The rupee is trading at 64.85 to the US$.

In the news from the IPO markets, GTPL Hathway made a tepid debut on Indian Indices today. The scrip of the company got listed at Rs 170, the same as its issue price.

The IPO of the company was subscribed merely 1.53 times during the offer period between June 21-23.

Speaking of IPOs, the primary markets have caught the frenzy of investors. However, are IPO's a sure shot way to make money in the stock markets?

According to Hindu Business Line, till June 2016, only 40% of the IPOs launched between 2004 and 2011 were trading above their issue price, as can be seen from the chart below.

Are IPOs a Sure Shot Way to Make Money?

So the best way to invest in IPOs is by evaluating each IPO on its merits by considering its fundamentals, and most importantly, the valuations. And this is particularly important when the hype surrounding IPOs is at its peak.

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In the news from global financial markets, US factory activity rose sharply in June to its highest level in almost three years.

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This suggested that economic growth in the second quarter in the US gained some steam.

However, construction spending held steady in May.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to a reading of 57.8 last month, its best performance since August 2014. This was as against 54.9 in May.

In the news from commodity markets, crude oil is witnessing volatility today.

While gains were seen during the start of the day, concerns regarding the rising output from OPEC despite the planned cut capped the above gains.

Note that crude oil output is still increasing in the US, and the US is not a part of the OPEC production agreement.

Apart from the above losses, crude oil has also been witnessing volatility recently over Donald Trump's proposal to sell half of the country's strategic oil reserves.

Owing to the supply glut, crude oil prices have been remarkably silent over the last two years. Prices have remained within a tight range, rarely dropping below US$40 or rising above US$60. Volatility has crashed. And if you are trading crude oil, it's critical to understand why this has occurred.

One of the issues of Vivek Kaul's Inner Circle (requires subscription) explains what has triggered the above taming in crude oil prices.

To keep a tab on the movements in crude oil and other commodities, you can read the stock market commentary from the Daily Profit Hunter team. Their commentary tracks the developments in the global economy as well as stock, currency and commodity markets.

One shall note that rising oil prices do not bode well for the Indian economy. This we say is because India is hugely dependent on petroleum imports. In fact, the share of petroleum imports for India has only increased over the years.

India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. And energy consumption in India is set to grow as our economy remains one of the few 'bright spots' in a slowing, aging world economy. And India could face a potent risk with a rise in crude oil prices.

The only way out of this for India is to reduce its dependence on oil imports and achieve fuel-sufficiency.

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