Sensex Trades Marginally Higher; Realty Stocks Witness Buying

Thu, 20 Jul 11:30 am

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Stock markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the banking sector and realty sector witnessing maximum buying interest.

The BSE Sensex is trading up 29 points (up 0.1%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 5 points (up 0.1%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading down by 0.1%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.4%. The rupee is trading at 64.40 to the US$.

In the news from commodity markets, crude oil is witnessing buying interest today. Most of the gains came in after data released showed a fall in US crude stockpiles.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels in the week to July 14. This was against analyst expectations for a decrease of 3.2 million barrels.

Apart from the above, crude oil is also in focus ahead of a key OPEC meeting next week.

While the above gains come as a welcome breather, crude oil has been witnessing losses lately on concerns regarding the rising output from OPEC.

Owing to the supply glut, crude oil prices have been remarkably silent over the last two years. Prices have remained within a tight range, rarely dropping below US$40 or rising above US$60. Volatility has crashed. And if you are trading crude oil, it's critical to understand why this has occurred.

One of the issues of Vivek Kaul's Inner Circle (requires subscription) explains what has triggered the above taming in crude oil prices.

To keep a tab on the movements in crude oil and other commodities, you can read the stock market commentary from the Daily Profit Hunter team. Their commentary tracks the developments in the global economy as well as stock, currency and commodity markets.

On the domestic front, rising oil prices do not bode well for the Indian economy. This we say is because India is hugely dependent on petroleum imports. In fact, the share of petroleum imports for India has only increased over the years, as can be seen from the chart below:

India's Growing Dependence on Petroleum Imports

India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. And energy consumption in India is set to grow as our economy remains one of the few 'bright spots' in a slowing, aging world economy. And India could face a potent risk with a rise in crude oil prices.

The only way out for India is to reduce its dependence on oil imports and achieve fuel-sufficiency.

In the news from global financial markets, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept monetary policy steady on Thursday. It also raised its growth forecasts and offered a more upbeat view for the Japanese economy. Most of this optimism was fueled by robust exports and private consumption seen in the economy lately.

The central bank, however, once again pushed back the timing for achieving its ambitious inflation target. This reinforced views that the bank will lag well behind other major central banks in scaling back its massive stimulus programme.

The central bank now expects inflation will not reach its targeted 2% level until sometime in the fiscal year ending in March 2020.

Lastly, the central bank also kept intact guidance that it would keep buying government bonds so its holdings increase at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen (US$ 714 billion).

One shall note that there remain many issues that can hamper Japan's economic growth. The economy is flooded with excessive money printing, too much debt, too much government intervention, and stock market manipulation.

The BoJ's moves are in line with the easy money policies that central banks have adopted around the world. However, with the changes in policy stance at major central banks in 2016, it seems that the end of easy money is near.

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