Indian Indices Trade on a Positive Note; Sensex Up Over 150 Points

Fri, 20 Jul 12:30 pm

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After opening the day marginally higher, stock markets in India have continued their momentum. Sectoral indices are trading on a positive note with stocks in the IT sector and capital goods sector witnessing maximum buying interest.

The BSE Sensex is trading up 159 points (up 0.4%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 48 points (up 0.4%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.5%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.1%.

The rupee is trading at 68.86 to the US$.

In the news from commodity markets, crude oil is witnessing buying interest today. Gains are seen as Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor said the kingdom's exports are likely to fall next month and inventories may be squeezed in the third quarter.

As per the news, Saudi's OPEC governor Adeeb al-Aama said that Saudi crude exports in July will be largely stable from June, but will decline by about 100,000 barrel per day (bpd) in August.

Also note that the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build of 100,000 bpd in US crude output to 11 million bpd for the week ended June 13.

Market participants are now looking for further indications from US production levels from Baker Hughes, which is slated to release weekly US rig count data later today.

Note that, global oil prices have climbed steadily this year, helped by rising demand. They have topped US$ 80 per barrel in May for the first time in three and a half years.

Rising crude oil prices doesn't bode well for the Indian economy, as it not only affects fuel prices, but also has many other repercussions on the macroeconomic level.

They can be a big worry for the Modi government as well as it has been a big beneficiary of lower crude oil prices.

Have a look at the chart below. It shows India's total import bill of crude oil and petroleum products on an annual basis during the Manmohan Singh regime and the Narendra Modi regime.

Here's Why Crude Oil Was Modi's Best Friend So Far

As Ankit Shah wrote in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...

• During the UPA II regime, India's average annual oil import bill was US$ 133 billion. In fact, in the last three years of Manmohan Singh's leadership, the oil import bill exceeded US$ 150 billion. Compare that with an average annual oil bill of US$ 95 billion during the four years of Modi's leadership.
  
  The actual savings would have been even higher, because I believe the consumption of crude oil and petroleum products would have been quite higher in the Modi era than the Manmohan era.
  
  Last Thursday, Brent crude oil prices shot above US$ 80 a barrel.
  
  This is the highest level since 2014. In the past one year alone, oil prices have surged more than 50%.
  
  Now, what if oil prices go back to the levels during the Manmohan Singh regime? What would happen to India's current account and fiscal deficit? What would happen to inflation and RBI's stance on interest rates?
  
  With the next general elections just a year away, rising crude oil prices are going to be a big worry for the Modi government.
  
  It should worry you too...

Apart from that, what does rising crude oil prices mean for stock markets?

Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction, will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.

This is what she wrote...

• After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled to US$ 68 in April 2018.
  
  The recent news of Saudi Arabia wanting crude oil prices to touch US$ 100 per barrel doesn't help. The 2008 recession was preceded by crude oil touching US$ 150 per barrel. Any movement upwards can result in a possible downturn for the global market.
  
  While the Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.

How the government handles this situation of rising crude oil and fuel prices remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you posted on all the developments from this space. Stay tuned.

In the news from initial public offering (IPO) space, the IPO of TCNS Clothing was subscribed over 2 times on its last day of bidding so far. The issue comprises of 15,714,038 shares which will be offered in the Rs 714-716 price band.

The company is engaged in the business of designing, manufacturing, marketing and retailing of branded apparels for women and offers top-wear, bottom-wear, drapes, combo-sets and accessories etc., catering to the varied wardrobe requirements of Indian women. The company's brand portfolio includes 3 brands as follows:

'W' - A premiere brand targeted at women's casual and workwear requirements.

Aurelia - A contemporary ethnic wear brand that grew in revenue at a CAGR of 70.8% during 2013-17.

Wishful - A premium occasion wears brand that grew in revenue at a CAGR of 66.7% during 2013-17.

To know more about the company, you can read our IPO analysis of TCNS Clothing Ltd (requires subscription).

Also, to know how to safely profit from the ongoing IPO rush, download this FREE report now and discover How to Get Rich with IPOs

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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