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Indian Share Markets Trade Marginally Up; FMCG Sector Rallies
Mon, 23 Jul 12:30 pm

Stock markets in India are trading higher presently. Gains are largely seen in FMCG stocks and consumer durables' stocks.

The BSE Sensex is trading up by 75 points and the NSE Nifty is trading up by 33 points. Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.6% while, the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.4%. The rupee is trading at 68.85 to the US$.

In news from the steel sector. Tata Steel share price is in focus today after the steel major is looking at divesting its Southeast Asia business.

Tata Steel is planning to undertake the divestment as part of a strategy to exit non-scalable businesses and to focus on domestic growth strategy.

The steel major has been scouting for buyers for NatSteel Holdings Singapore and Tata Steel Thailand for some time now but without any success.

However, this doesn't mean that Tata Steel is stopping its investments; the company will continue to deploy capital in any assets that have the potential to create long- term value for its stakeholders.

It recently acquired Bhushan Steel through the insolvency process and has approved plans to expand its Kalinganagar plant in Odisha with an investment of over Rs 240 billion.

At the time of writing, Tata Steel share price was trading down by 0.2%.

Is the Steel Sector's Recovery Under Threat?

The country's steel industry was just coming out of a rough patch.

Demand was picking up. Steel prices were on the rise. Buyers were lining up to pick up stressed assets. With the expected pick up in the investment cycle, the sector was on the upswing.

India's Steel exports were on a roll.

Then Donald Trump spoiled the party. The US government plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium.

India produces a lot of both commodities but internationally, we are not a big player. The US imports only 2.4% of steel and 2% aluminium from India.

But it's not so simple.

With the new US tariffs, major exporters like South Korea will look to sell in other countries. This would lead to a glut and as a result, lower prices.

This could threaten the nascent recovery in the industry.

Moving on to news from stocks in the telecom sector.

Idea Cellular share price was in focus today after it was reported that Vodafone India is in talks with local and overseas banks to raise Rs 40-50 billion to meet the dues demanded by the Department of Telecom (DoT) to help seal the merger between the Idea Cellular and Vodafone India.

While DoT gave a conditional nod to the merger, however, before the two telecom giants begin to operate as one entity, the DoT insists on a Rs 72 billion towards one-time spectrum charges from the entities.

The DoT has asked for a bank guarantee of Rs 33.4 billion from Idea Cellular, while Vodafone has to pay Rs 39.2 billion in cash in lieu of spectrum liberalization.

Both Idea and Vodafone were expecting the merger deal to create India's largest telecom company to be completed by June 30, 2018. However, the process was stalled due to regulatory approvals.

Notably, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular merger is set to create India's largest telecom operator, surpassing Bharti Airtel Ltd. The top operator will have a revenue market share of around 37% and over 433 million subscribers.

The two companies were set to start operating as one entity from July 1 and for that to happen, the merger proceedings must be completed this month. Idea has called an extraordinary general meeting on June 26 to consider the proposals, including changing the name of the merged entity and raising funds of Rs 150 billion through debentures.

It will be interesting to track the progress of the new telecom leader, and whether it can sustain the pole position, in the hyper-competitive telecom industry.

At the time of writing Idea share price was trading down by 0.3%.

The entry of Reliance Jio and the fierce tariff war it has triggered has set off brisk activity in the telecom industry for fundraising and consolidation, as the incumbents look for ways and means to fend off the competition.

Note that the whole telecom business has been an underwhelming story so far. While the telecom subscriber base has increased from 300 million in 2008 to 1.2 billion in 2017, investors have little to cheer. The BSE Sensex has gone up 3.25 times in nine years, but the BSE Telecom Index has not moved an inch from its levels of 2008.

Telecom companies are straddled with high debt, intense competition, and lack of pricing power. High spectrum costs and regulatory issues have hampered the sector. While consumers have benefited from low costs and new players fighting for their share, investors have suffered.

With the entry of Reliance Jio, the competition has intensified further. Reliance Jio's low cost offerings and strategy of capturing market share will further dent the sector. The sector has been a classic 'value trap'. While it always looks cheap compared to other sectors, it has failed to provide any reasonable returns. We also believe the situation is unlikely to change in the near future. For an investor, it's important to differentiate between 'value' and 'value traps'.

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