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Weak Finish to the Week; Realty & Metal Stocks Plunge

Fri, 22 Sep Closing

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Indian share markets continued to languish in red in the afternoon session as rupee hit its weakest point since early April amid concerns that the government's plan for an impetus to halt an economic slowdown may have a negative impact on the fiscal deficit. The sentiment also remained negative after North Korea said it might test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean and escalated a war of words with US President Donald Trump.

At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex closed lower by 448 points and the NSE Nifty finished down by 157 points. The S&P BSE Mid Cap finished down by 2.7% while S&P BSE Small Cap finished down by 2.9%. Losses were largely seen in realty stocks, metal stocks and capital goods stocks.

Asian stock markets finished lower today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. The Hang Seng is down 0.82% while Japan's Nikkei 225 is off 0.25% and China's Shanghai Composite is lower by 0.16%. European markets are mixed today. The CAC 40 is up 1.28% while the DAX gains 0.14%. The FTSE 100 is even.

The rupee was trading at Rs 64.96 against the US$ in the afternoon session. Oil prices were trading at US$ 50.52 at the time of writing.

As per a leading financial daily, credit rating agency, ICRA in its latest report has said that with ability to successfully leverage technology for deposit mobilisation, the private banks can take more space in the banking sector advances in the future.

According to the report, private Banks' advances market share may increase to 38 to 40% by 2019-20 from 19.9% as on March 31, 2014 and 27.5% during the preceding financial year (FY17).

The report found improvement in the private sector banks' deposits share which has increased to 23.5% as on June 30, 2017 from 19% as on June 30, 2014.

ICRA further said that despite challenges like increasing competitive intensity and difficulty in growth balance due to the buoyant debt capital markets, the private sector banks have performed well and capitalised on the opportunities by delivering a credit growth at 3-year CAGR of 17.8% as against 2.5% for public sector banks and with relatively better asset quality.

The report noted that in order to grow advances with an estimate of 38-40% by 2019-2020, the banks need to mobilise the requisite quantum of deposits and for this, ICRA said that leveraging technology will be a key driver of growth.

Moving on to news from oil & gas sector. As per an article in The Economic Times, Indian oil PSU's are planning to acquire up to 20% stake in an oil field belonging to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in UAE.

According to the Oil India's CMD, 20% stake will be a consortium of BPCL, ONGC Videsh Ltd, Oil India and others.

On OIL's outlook, Oil India said the PSU is planning to spend Rs 40 billion towards capex during the current fiscal. The capex is for developmental drilling and exploratory drilling program and for creating infrastructure.

On the production front, he said this year OIL is expected to produce about 3.35 million tonnes of oil. Last year it achieved 3.28 million tonnes.

Oil India share price finished the day down by 0.2% on the BSE.

In news from FMCG sector, as per an article in The Livemint, Dabur India it has tied up with e-commerce major Amazon for an online ayurveda marketplace which will house all ayurvedic brands and products available in the country.

The company, which will also offer consumers an insight into various ayurvedic medicines for treating a variety of ailments, said the idea is to service all health and personal care related needs of patients. The exclusive ayurveda e-marketplace has been hosted by Amazon India and the content is developed by Dabur India.

Meanwhile, Baba Ramdev's Patanjali Ayurved has hired two investment banks to raise structured credit worth Rs 10 billion. In August, Patanjali had announced its intention to borrow to finance its expansion plans.

In recent statements, Patanjali has said that it wants to raise long-term project finance to fund its upcoming food parks. The company, which currently has 50 manufacturing units, wants to scale up production at its existing facilities.

Patanjali Disrupts FMCG Pecking Order

Patanjali seems to have disrupted the FMCG pecking order. The share of Indian households that use the Patanjali brand is estimated at 38%. That's huge for a company barely a decade and a half old. Especially if you consider Patanjali's competition.

In 2016-17, the company posted revenues of more than Rs 100 billion. It has surged past behemoths such as ITC, Nestle India, Britannia Industries, and Dabur to become the second largest pure play FMCG company...second only to HUL.

FMCG stocks finished the day on a negative note with Bata India share price and Pidilite India share price leading the losses.

In news from IPO segment, the Rs 84 billion initial public offering (IPO) of SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd was subscribed 1.16 times the final day of the share sale. The IPO has a price band of Rs 685-700 per share. At the upper end of this price band, the initial share sale values the firm at Rs 700 billion.

Meanwhile, the IPO of Prataap Snacks opened for subscription today with a price band of Rs 930-938. The IPO, which will see a fresh issue of Rs 2 billion, aims to raise Rs 4.82 billion through the share sale.

Matrimony share price plunged 8.6% to Rs 824. The stock listed on the exchanges on Thursday and closed 8% lower in debut trading.

The market euphoria is something similar to what was seen in 2007-08. When everyone around you is clamoring to get a piece of the IPO pie, it makes sitting tight difficult. And, why should you sit tight when stocks like Avenue Supermart lets you pocket a cool 100% gain from day 1 of the listing?

History suggests that these cases are few and far between. More than 70% of the IPOs listed in 2007 and 2008 are in the red, even today when the Sensex is at an all-time high.

This allows us to stay on the fence when it comes to investing in IPOs. But it doesn't make sense to completely ignore this space. For every Reliance Power-like issue, there have been issues like Maruti, TCS, and Jubilant Foodworks Ltd (with returns over 4,000%, 1,000% and 500% respectively) that have created immense wealth for shareholders.

A merit-based selection primarily including valuation, business, and management quality is the logical way to go about it.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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