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Indian Indices Trade Flat; Metal Stocks Witness Buying Interest
Tue, 22 Nov 11:30 am

After opening the day on a firm note, the Indian share markets lost some of their early gains and went on to trade near the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the metal sector and energy sector witnessing maximum buying interest. Power stocks are trading in the red.

The BSE Sensex is trading up 49 points (up 0.2%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 27 points (up 0.3%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading flat. The rupee is trading at 68.18 to the US$.

As per a leading financial daily, as many as 54 BSE-listed companies are set to declare their September quarter results during this trading week. From this list, around 12 companies are going to announce their earnings today. The list includes Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Birla Corporation, Jindal Stainless, etc. among others.

The effect of above result announcements would be seen during the trading week. You see, estimates and even the actual corporate earnings every quarter tend to be a major influence on investor sentiments. And in the end, these announcements put investors and stock markets into a frenzy.

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On November 8, PM Modi sent shockwaves through the country with the demonetization move. A lot of cash stopped being the currency. Thirteen days on, the queues at banks are still long. Most of the ATMs are out of cash by afternoon.

The opinion is still divided on if the demonetization will curb the demon of black money and punish the real culprits; since most of the black money has already been invested in assets like real estate.

Amid these questions, the government is bracing itself for a sharp decline in the manufacturing sector and the consumer demand in the coming months. The demonetization drive is said to impact the manufacturing costs and the consumer demand during the third quarter of FY17.

As per a leading financial daily, the government has assessed the impact of demonetisation is likely to bring the gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.5% in the third quarter of FY17. This is recorded as a steep drop from 7.1% in the first quarter.

In our view, the demonetisation exercise will weigh on India's GDP growth. Reasons- India has a high cash usage as compared to the other countries. Most importantly, one of the worst victims of this decision has been the informal sector, that accounts for 48% of India's total output and 80% of the employment. It will take a long time and solid infrastructure to make this informal sector a part of formal economy. And in the meantime, there could be many permanent casualties.

But the above situation is just a part of the problem. Amid all the views, the poor fixed depositor has been ignored. While the cut in lending rates is much hyped, no one is bothered about the cut in the deposit rates. As Vivek Kaul suggests:

  • Actually, a fall in deposit rates hurts two sets of people. One is the section of the population which uses fixed deposits to build a corpus for future expenses like education and marriages of children. A fall in interest rates means that a greater amount of money needs to be saved if future expenses are to be met. It also hurts those who use fixed deposits to meet their regular monthly expenses, especially the senior citizens. If interest rates fall, they need to cut down on their expenses. Hence, a fall in interest rates on deposits can actually also have a negative impact on consumption in many cases, in contrast to what professional economists tell us.

You see, professional economists and the media are unlikely to tell you about what the fight against black money will mean for you and your money. To know more about its wide reaching implications, claim your special report authored by Vivek Kaul - Demonetisation : The Good. The Bad. The Ugly.

For information on how to pick stocks that have the potential to deliver big returns, download our special report now!

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Mar 21, 2018 (Close)