Sensex Opens Weak; Metal & Realty Stocks Fall

Thu, 6 Dec 09:30 am

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Asian stock markets are lower today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Shanghai Composite is off 1.4% while the Hang Seng is down 2.8%. The Nikkei 225 is trading down by 1.8%. Global stocks extended declines into a second session Wednesday, following on from last night's sharp selloff on Wall Street, as investors continued to question that fate of US-China trade talks.

Back home, India share markets have opened the day on a weaker note. The BSE Sensex is trading down by 236 points while the NSE Nifty is trading down by 78 points. The BSE Mid Cap index opened the day down by 0.8% while BSE Small Cap index opened down by 0.6%.

Sectoral indices have opened the day on a negative note with metal stocks and realty stocks witnessing maximum selling pressure.

The rupee is currently trading at Rs 70.84 against the US$.

Oil prices fell today, and trading was tepid ahead of a meeting by producer group OPEC that is expected to result in a supply cut aimed at draining a glut that has pulled down crude prices by 30% since October.

Talking about the OPEC meeting and its impact on crude oil prices, here's some interesting data.

After OPEC meetings, crude oil prices have seen volatile moves both ways.

Look at this chart...

Volatile Up and Down Moves Post-OPEC Meetings

Here's what Research Analyst, Sarvajeet Bodas thinks about the movement in crude oil prices:

• "In the last four years, crude oil prices have moved between -7% and 9% in a single day immediately after OPEC meetings.
  
  So, I won't be surprised if we see a similar volatility after today's meeting.
  
  It is important to note that, in the short term, OPEC has significant influence on the price of crude oil. But in the long term, its ability to influence the price of oil is quite limited. This because individual countries within OPEC have different incentives than the group as a whole."

In the news from the economy. Following a three-day meeting, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% on the back of a fall in crude oil prices and lower-than-expected inflation.

The reverse repo rate was also kept unchanged at 6.5%. Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank lends to other banks.

This is for the second time in a row that the central bank did not tinker with the interest rate. For the layman, this means that home loan and car loan rates will remain the same.

The central bank has also retained GDP growth projection for 2018-19 at 7.4%. The committee also revised the inflation target for the second half to 2.7%.

As per the reports, the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee is consistent with the stance of calibrated tightening of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/-2%, while supporting growth.

Since the previous policy announcement, the rupee has appreciated against the US dollar. However, India's economic growth slowed to 7.1% in the September quarter after peaking to an over two-year high in the first three months of this fiscal, as consumption demand moderated and farm sector displayed signs of weakness.

The growth in GDP in July-September is the lowest in three quarters but better than 6.3% in the same period of the previous year.

Moving on to the news from the engineering sector. In the latest development, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL)'s share buyback offer worth Rs 16.3 billion is set to open on 13 December.

The offer to buy 189.3 million equity shares representing 5.2% paid-up equity share capital of the company will close on 27 December, the reports noted.

The buyback would be done through the tender offer route. The price has been fixed at Rs 86 per equity share of face value Rs 2 each.

Speaking of buybacks, the number of buybacks offers in 2017-18 were at an all-time high. Never, in the last two decades, had Indian markets seen fifty-nine companies announcing buyback plans.

But what is truly surprising is that unlike in the past, the buybacks this time seem skewed in favour of short-term investors rather than long term ones.

At Equitymaster, we believe, as a shareholder in cash rich companies, you should not only be wary of expensive buybacks. But if possible use it to your advantage to rake in some cash.

As per Co-head of Research, Rahul Shah, investors should not assume buybacks are always good. Here's an excerpt of what he wrote in The 5 Minute Wrapup:

• "The reason behind the buyback must be investigated. At the end of the day, an increase in earnings should be more a function of the inherent robustness of the business, as that's what will help it continue to grow at a healthy pace."

BHEL share price opened the day down by 0.5%.

To know what's moving the Indian stock markets today, check out the most recent share market updates here.

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