Black Money May Not Lose. But It's Time for Serious Investors to Win - Views on News from Equitymaster

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The Equitymaster Research Digest

Black Money May Not Lose. But It's Time for Serious Investors to Win
Dec 2, 2016

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The mainstream media is telling you loads of lies about the anti-black money drive. For all you know, the hoarders of black money may not finally lose the game. No doubt, demonetisation was a great attack on the ills of black money. But there is very little to conclude that the cash ban has dealt with the problem in its entirety.

Meanwhile, the pain inflicted by the cash ban will last much, much longer than expected. You have already experienced the unusual problem of being cash strapped even on a payday. And you may have deferred non-urgent purchases. Now multiply that by several millions. Yes, the cash crunch has millions of Indians unable to make their purchases. Although this demand curb is artificial, it is bound to impact businesses in the months to come. It does not mean India's consumption story is dead. But it will take time to recover from the paralysis. And the consumer in you is worried.

But for the serious investor in you, it's time to rub your hands in glee. And get down to take a look at the numbers that will really matter. The numbers that could change your investing fortunes...

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Beware of the fact that the performance of several large blue-chip companies could also be severely hit in the coming quarters. Bajaj Auto, for instance, expects its motorcycle sales in November to be lower by 13%. Its sales in the rural areas are down 50%. And if the cash crunch lasts for the expected five to six months, FY17 performance will be nothing to write home about.

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