Will debt markets take a hit post budget? - Outside View by PersonalFN

Helping You Build Wealth With Honest Research
Since 1996. Try Now

  • MyStocks


Login Failure
(Please do not use this option on a public machine)
  Sign Up | Forgot Password?  

Will debt markets take a hit post budget?
Jul 3, 2014

Pre-budget hope rally is taking equity markets to new highs. You may think bond markets have disappointed investors as they have hardly generated attractive returns in the recent times. However considering the economic situation of the country, it must be noted that bond markets in India have been reasonably resilient.

Despite of several negatives, bond yields of 10-year sovereign benchmark bond are still range-bound. Crisis in Iraq pose a threat of higher crude oil prices. This means, eventually India may witness higher inflationary pressure as it majorly depends on imported oil. Recently, petrol and diesel prices have been hiked. Non-subsidised LPG has also gotten costlier. Railway fares have gone up too. All these factors may push inflation higher. Weaker monsoon may translate to higher food prices. Fiscal deficit for the year 2014-15 has already reached to 45% of the yearly target within first two months. This is mainly on account of carried forward subsidies of nearly Rs 35,000 crore by the UPA government.

What does this mean for bond markets?

Higher fiscal deficit and risk of high inflation are negative for bond markets. Given the stickiness of inflation and threat of growing fiscal deficit, it is unlikely that RBI would go in for policy rate cuts any time soon.

As far as budget is concerned:

  • Recently, the Finance Minister suggested that there is no room for populous budget.

  • Investors hope that the bold decisions would be taken to instill financial discipline.

  • The government may focus on boosting revenues and cutting down subsidies.

  • Investors also expect the government to guide on implementation of Goods and Service Tax (GST).

  • Moreover, fast tracking of infrastructure projects and avoiding populous policies are expected to be thrust areas of the government.

PersonalFN is of the view that, bond markets are factoring in negatives that are known till now. They have been resilient on the hope that, the new government would announce stricter budget and avoid spending huge sums on welfare schemes. If the Finance Minister fails to fulfill these expectations, bonds might take a hit. Bond yields may shoot up again. Unless inflation and fiscal deficit fall, Indian debt markets may continue to remain under pressure.

PersonalFN believes, investors shouldn't speculate on movement and direction of bond yields. Investors should look at their time horizon before zeroing on the kind of debt instrument or debt fund they want to invest in. Longer duration funds come with high risk as compared to shorter duration funds.

This article has been authored by PersonalFN, a Mumbai based Financial Planning and Mutual Fund Research Firm known for offering unbiased and honest opinion on investing.

PersonalFN is a Mumbai based personal finance firm offering Financial Planning and Mutual Fund Research services.


The views mentioned above are of the author only. Data and charts, if used, in the article have been sourced from available information and have not been authenticated by any statutory authority. The author and Equitymaster do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. Please read the detailed Terms of Use of the web site.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Will debt markets take a hit post budget?". Click here!

1 Responses to "Will debt markets take a hit post budget?"


Jul 15, 2014

The increase in the long term capital gains from 1 year to 3 years and the doubling of taxes from 10% to 20% is bad news.The new rules also increase dividend distribution tax. FMP and debt funds have no advantage against FD and this could kill debt mutual funds.

Equitymaster requests your view! Post a comment on "Will debt markets take a hit post budget?". Click here!

More Views on News

Why Gold Hit Lower Circuit (Fast Profits Daily)

Jan 11, 2021

Were you shocked that bullion prices hit lower circuits on Friday on the MCX? Find out why it happened...

My Top 5 Gold ETFs (Fast Profits Daily)

Dec 28, 2020

In this video, I'll tell you my list of the top 5 gold ETFs in India.

Gold ETFs or Gold Bullion? (Fast Profits Daily)

Dec 14, 2020

Should you buy gold in physical form or in electronic form? Find out in this video.

Should You Buy Platinum or Gold or Silver Now? (Fast Profits Daily)

Aug 24, 2020

The precious metals market is booming but are all precious metals a buy? Find out in this video...

Warren Buffett is Bullish on Gold. Are you? (Fast Profits Daily)

Aug 18, 2020

Warren Buffett has bought a stake in a gold mining company. What does this mean for gold bulls?

More Views on News

Most Popular

Is Intraday Trading For You? (Fast Profits Daily)

May 13, 2021

Do you think you have what it takes to be an intraday trader? Find out in this video.

My Secret to Find Breakthrough Stocks (Fast Profits Daily)

May 7, 2021

I've used this trading technique for many years with great success. I'm sharing it with you today.

Are the Stock Markets Deaf to Covid Agony? (Profit Hunter)

May 6, 2021

Why are markets discounting the economic impact of Covid?

The Key to Profit from India's EV Revolution (Profit Hunter)

May 7, 2021

Stocks you must consider investing in before buying your first electric vehicle.


India's #1 Trader
Reveals His Secrets

Secret To Increasing Your Trading Profits Today
Get this Special Report,
The Secret to Increasing Your Trading Profits Today, Now!
We will never sell or rent your email id.
Please read our Terms