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Two Extreme Views on India
Nov 25, 2017

Is India on the verge of a takeoff?

Or is India about to collapse into chaos?

Broadly, this is how the arguments flow...

The Bull Case

I believe there is one big reason why everyone is attracted to India.

It's people. Ahem...it's number of people.

Even more specifically, India's fast growing young population that stands to reap a rich demographic dividend.

Basically, jargon for a situation where the working population of a country is growing fast, thus triggering a growth in incomes. As a result, a virtuous circle kicks in...more jobs lead to more income which leads to more consumption, which in turn leads to more jobs (as production in the economy increases).

This is of course a very simple explanation. But you get the picture.

Now, the demographic dividend kicked in a long time ago, and yet the economy did not really takeoff.

We know that.

But this is where the new bull case kicks in...and, it must be said, it revolves a lot around what Prime Minister Modi is doing.

I believe there are broadly three pillars of this argument...

First, the Jandhan - Aadhar - Mobile (JAM) revolution, much of which kicked in well before 2014. This has huge implications for India including, bringing the poor into the system, improving the delivery of government and other services and basically offering a framework for conceptualizing and delivering new products and services which were hitherto impossible to even conceive.

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