Image source: Google GeminiIf you have been on LinkedIn or Twitter (X) over the last few days, you have likely seen a chart doing rounds. It is simple, powerful, and slightly unsettling.
The chart asks a quiet but provocative question: What if you had invested Rs 1 lakh every single year for 35 years, but only at the highest Sensex level of that year?
The answer? You would still have ended up with Rs 3 crore at a CAGR of 10.5%.
Now, the same chart flips the question: What if you had invested the same Rs 1 lakh every year, but only at the lowest Sensex level of that year?
The answer jumps to Rs 5 crore at a CAGR of 12.6%.
Same discipline. Same amount. Same 35 years. A difference of Rs 2 crore - purely because of luck. Due to which day of the year you happened to invest.
But here is where the chart stops. And where the real story begins.
Let us run the numbers one more time.
Same Rs 1 lakh per year. Same 35 years. But this time, instead of the Sensex's 10-12%, you target 5% more per annum i.e. an 18% CAGR.
The final corpus? Rs 18 crore.
Yes. Rs 18 crore.
That is not a typo. Compounding at 18% over three and a half decades turns a total investment of Rs 35 lakh into a life-changing number.
So, the natural question follows - loud and clear: Should you even try for 18%? And more importantly, is there a repeatable blueprint to get there?
Most people stop at the first question. They say 18% is unrealistic. They call it luck. They call it a bubble. They call it hindsight.
But a small group of investors - including arguably the greatest of all time - would disagree. And they left their answer in a speech from 1984.
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Rahul Shah co-head of research at Equitymaster is the editor of (Research Analyst), Editor, Microcap Millionaires, Exponential Profits, Double Income, Midcap Value Alert and Momentum Profits. Rahul has over 20 years of experience in financial markets as an analyst and editor. Rahul first joined Equitymaster as a Research Analyst, fresh out of university in 2003 but left shortly after to pursue his dream job with a Swiss investment bank. However, he quickly became disillusioned working for the 'financial establishment'. He learned first-hand the greedy stereotype of an investment banker is true and became uncomfortable working for a company that put profit above everything else. In 2006, Rahul re-joined Equitymas ter to serve honest, hardworking Indians like his father, who want to take control of their financial future - and not leave it in the hands of greedy money managers. Following the investment principles of Benjamin Graham (the bestselling author of The Intelligent Investor) and Warren Buffet (considered the world's greatest living investor), Rahul has recommended some of the biggest winners in Equitymaster's history.
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