Why the World's Fastest-Growing AI Fund is Avoiding Infosys

Leopold Aschenbrenner is not your average short seller. A former researcher on the "Superalignment" team at OpenAI, he was fired in 2024 for allegedly leaking information-a claim he denies. Shortly after, he published a 165-page paper titled "Situational Awareness," which predicted the rapid rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Aschenbrenner didn't just write about the future; he put his money where his mouth is. He founded Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund backed by tech royalty like the Collison brothers (Stripe) and Nat Friedman (former GitHub CEO). His funds grew from UU$ 225 million to US$ 5.5 billion in just one year.

In a portfolio filled with "long" bets on AI infrastructure and power companies, Aschenbrenner has exactly one "short" position: a put option on Infosys.

The Thesis: Claude vs The Cubicle

Aschenbrenner's bet is simple but existential. He believes that AI software like Claude Code (from Anthropic) and GitHub Copilot will do more than just help programmers; they will replace the need for them.

For decades, Infosys built a "moat" based on labor arbitrage-hiring thousands of smart engineers in India to do work for Western companies at a lower cost.

If an AI agent can write, test, and debug code for pennies on the dollar, the traditional IT outsourcing model doesn't just slow down; it breaks.

The recent Infosys results fueled this fire. Despite the profit jump, the company gave a weak revenue growth guidance of just 1.5% to 3.5% for the next year.

Even more telling was the headcount: Infosys saw a significant drop in its total number of employees. For a firm that has always grown by adding more "seats," a shrinking workforce is a loud signal that the old engine is sputtering.

Should You Follow the Lead?

When a "genius" investor makes a bold move, the temptation is to copy it. But before you rush to buy put options, you must realize that you are not Leopold Aschenbrenner.

We don't fully know his investment framework. Is he a long-term visionary who can wait five years for a bet to pay off? Or is he a savvy trader playing a technical move? He might even be "hedging"-taking a short position in Infosys to protect his other massive gains in AI stocks.

Blindly following an expert is dangerous because you don't know when they will exit. If Aschenbrenner closes his position tomorrow, you won't get a phone call telling you to do the same.

The Investor's Dilemma: Time Horizons

Your view on Infosys should depend entirely on your own timeline.

The Short to Medium Term (1-2 Years): The outlook is undeniably cloudy. AI is creating "revenue compression." Clients are asking for the same work but at lower prices because they know AI is making the work easier.

Geopolitical uncertainty and a soft global economy mean companies are cutting back on big "transformation" projects. In this window, the stock could remain stagnant or face further pressure.

The Long Term (3-5 Years and Beyond): This is where the real questions begin. Is the moat truly gone, or is it just changing?

Is the Moat Intact?

To decide if Infosys is a "buy" for the long haul, you have to look past the AI hype and answer a few core questions:

Can they pivot? Infosys is already partnering with Anthropic to use Claude AI. They are trying to move from selling "hours of labor" to selling "AI solutions." Can a giant with over 300,000 people change its DNA fast enough?

What about "Agentic AI"? Large companies are terrified of letting an AI run wild with their data. They need a "trusted partner" to manage the AI, ensure security, and handle the integration. Infosys has those relationships. Is that the new moat?

Is it priced in? At current levels, the stock trades at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio than it has in years. Markets often overreact to new threats. Are we at the "peak of inflation" for AI fears?

The Bottom Line

Leopold Aschenbrenner is betting that the "factory model" of coding is dead.

Infosys is betting that its deep industry knowledge and client relationships will allow it to survive the transition.

If you are a trader, the momentum is clearly against the stock. But if you are a long-term investor, you have to decide if this is a "Kodak moment"-where a giant fails to see the digital future-or a "Microsoft moment"-where a legacy giant successfully re-invents itself for a new era.

Your framework, not a headline about a hedge fund, should dictate your next move.

Happy investing.

Warm regards,


Rahul Shah
Editor and Research Analyst, Profit Hunter
Quantum Information Services Private Limited (Research Analyst)