In Uncertain Markets, Watch What Promoters Do

In my recent editorial, I'd written to you about the uncertainty triggered by Trump's tariff moves and how they've rattled Indian markets.

We still don't know if these tariffs will be eased, rolled back, or made more punitive for India.

But here's the thing - waiting and watching rarely works well in investing.

Instead of second-guessing Trump, a far better approach is to look for businesses that remain resilient: companies with robust supply chains and reliable access to end markets. I recently shared three such tariff-proof stocks that should be on your watchlist.

Now, let me bring your attention to something equally intriguing - and much closer to home.

While scrolling through my news feed, a headline in The Hindu Business Line caught my eye:

Promoter holding in listed Indian companies has dipped to an eight-year low of 40.58%, after a Rs 547 bn net share sale in the June quarter (source: Primeinfobase).

And it's not just promoters. Even Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned net sellers in July.

So, who's stepping in?

Domestic mutual funds, flush with liquidity, are aggressively buying - fuelled by retail investor inflows and the broader trend of financialization.

This rising demand has sparked healthy QIP activity. For companies, that means access to growth capital and a cleaner balance sheet. But for investors, it also means equity dilution.

So where does that leave us?

In a nutshell, the macro picture is cloudy. We're seeing insiders promoters selling into an overvalued market, while public shareholding is rising via mutual funds and retail money.

It's a setup that warrants caution, not complacency.

While analysts gear up for earnings season, don't be surprised if forecasts turn out wildly off - especially in a world shaped by shifting geopolitical winds.

In times like these, it pays to do what the best investors do: Focus on signals, not noise.

And few signals are as powerful as promoter buying - especially when it goes against the tide.

While promoter holding across India Inc. is trending lower, some promoters are quietly buying from the open market - a strong show of conviction in their own businesses.

These transactions aren't just numbers on a screen. Behind them are people with skin in the game, betting on the upside they see before the rest of the world catches on.

As always, I believe this kind of on-ground signal is worth far more than any headline or analyst projection.

So, let's take a closer look at a few such India focused companies that can dodge tariff hits and where promoters are going against the trend, increasing their stake while others sell.

The first is Arkade Developers - a real estate development company focused on premium and luxury segment.

Its notable developments include entry into the high-potential Thane micro-market and the acquisition of Filmistan Pvt. Ltd. It has also announced its maiden dividend.

It operates on an asset light model with margins over 30%, return ratio over 30%, with zero net debt on the balance sheet, a focus on cash flows and internal rate of return. The company claims a quick turnaround - well before RERA deadlines.

Pre sales is a good leading indicator for the future prospects. For quarter ended June 2025, its pre sales have been highest for the first quarter, growing at 17.1% YoY and collections are up 41.8% YoY.

What's more, the promoters have forgone their dividends to enhance shareholder value. From Rs 6.8 bn in topline, the company has a five-year goal of reaching Rs 100 bn topline, with FY27 as an inflection year.

Margin pressure amid competition is the risk to watch out for.

The stock has seen insider buying in the recent months - Rs 18 m worth of stocks were bought by the promoters at Rs 180. At the current price, the stock is trading at Rs 191, at just 6% premium.

As a domestic focused company, the company also qualifies to be tariff-proof and deserves to be on your watchlist.

The second India focused business is DB Corp (Dainik Bhaskar). As a leading newspaper, it earns income from circulation and advertisement revenue. Apart from print media, it's focusing on digital user growth and on its radio business.

With the election base issue now behind it in first quarter, the management expects core ad categories and digital to drive growth in the coming quarters.

The promoters have said they believe in the future of the company very strongly. The return ratios are healthy and the debt is negligible. The stock also has a dividend yield of 4.4%.

The stock has seen promoter buying worth Rs 33 m, at an average price of Rs 271. In fact, this trend of insider buying has been going on since May.

It's trading at a similar level of Rs 272 and deserves to be on your watchlist.

The third candidate is Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd. It operates the in hotel and hospitality sector with a pan India presence and over five decades of existence.

It is the 8th largest hotel chain among the ones with asset ownership in India. It operates 35 hotels under brands like THE PARK, Zone by The Park, and Stop by Zone.

While these offerings cover the spectrum from economy to luxury, the upscale and upper mid-scale brands are the key business areas. The company has a diversified portfolio - of owned, leased, and managed properties.

It has reported highest occupancy of 92% in the quarter ended March 2025 and paid its maiden dividend. 41% of its revenue comes from food & beverages, led by Flurys.

The company has Rs 17-18 bn capex planned over five years and has a strong launch pipeline. It has entered the Mumbai market were demand-supply dynamics are favourable. It has guided for high-teen revenue growth with healthy profitability.

The stock has witnessed insider buying in June. Rs 11.5 m worth of shares were bought at an average price of Rs 153 per share.

The stock is trading close to these levels.

Do note that this discussion is for educational purposes and does not imply any view on the stocks mentioned.

Nonetheless, it's worth tracking insider buying in such India focused businesses that could potentially offer a shield from Trump's tariffs.

Warm regards,


Richa Agarwal
Editor and Research Analyst, Hidden Treasure
Equitymaster Research Private Limited (formerly Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited) (Research Analyst)