»Profit Hunter by Equitymaster

On This Day - 21 JANUARY 2019
It Made Americans Rich... It Made the Japanese Rich... Now it's India's Turn

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Tanushree Banerjee, Co-Head of Research

Japanese railways are renowned for their punctuality and precision.

The country's largest high-speed railway line has operated for almost half a century. But what is remarkable is that it never had a single derailment or collision.

If that's not enough, last year, its average departure delay was a mere 18 seconds, along a 320-mile route.

Can we expect such degree of safety and efficiency in Indian railways? Even though the country may soon have its first bullet train of Japanese make, we remain skeptical.

What is unique about Japanese railways is that it was amongst the first ones in the world to get privatised.

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In 1987, the government privatised the Japanese National Railways. The company operated every type of transit except trams and inner-city metros. Eventually all the regional railway companies in Japan also had private sector owners.

With privatisation, the railway companies could repay their debt. They invested capital to improve and modernise their networks. And in the process, reversed the stagnation and decline that Japanese railway companies had seen over the previous decade.

By the year 2000, East Japan Railway Company featured in Forbes' Top 200 companies globally in terms of market cap.

And not just that. Subsequently, even during Japan's lost decades in the stock market, the stock multiplied nearly three times.

Privatisation did to Japanese railway companies what no government in the world could do to state owned transport entities. And the health of these companies was best reflected in their stock market fortunes.

Now just as Japanese railways are renowned for precision, the US Military is known to be the hotbed of new technology. Even the research on the internet, as we know it today, was originally funded by the US Department of Defence.

The end of the Cold War was a major turning point for the American defense industry. And with the privatisation of several defence related manufacturing entities in the 1980s, the sector was flush with funds for research.

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Companies like Boeing and Northrop Grumman Corporation were amongst the first to benefit from this trend. These companies saw their stock prices multiply nearly 61 times and 56 times over past three decades.

You know that privatization is not a trend that is seen in economies every now and then. It usually occurs only once. Or possibly after decades.

Fortunately, few sectors in India are on the cusp of this trend for the first time ever.

And as investors in Indian stock markets, we find ourselves at the right place at the right time.

Like in the case of Japan and the US, privatization may not just create tremendous stock market wealth. But also push several Indian companies in the reckoning of global leaders.

I want to know what you think about this, dear reader. Which government company or industry would you like to see privatised? How much wealth do you think that would create?

Write to me with your opinion.

Warm regards,

Tanushree Banerjee
Tanushree Banerjee (Research Analyst)
Editor, The 5 Minute WrapUp

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